Posts filed under Sports statistics (1531)

September 15, 2021

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The NPC site calls this round Updated Week 3, but it is the original Round 7, less games involving the three Auckland teams. Game times are much the same, and sticking with original round names is easiest for my data.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.35 10.71 0.60
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 7.15 5.62 1.50
Bay of Plenty 5.07 5.20 -0.10
Canterbury 4.57 6.44 -1.90
Waikato 4.41 2.52 1.90
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.75 4.07 -0.30
Taranaki -1.10 -4.52 3.40
Otago -4.74 -3.47 -1.30
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Southland -10.73 -10.39 -0.30
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Manawatu -12.13 -14.72 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Aug 13 6 – 14 -12.40 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 14 16 – 11 6.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 14 34 – 10 10.10 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 14 25 – 22 22.80 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 11 – 31 -11.00 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 15 43 – 37 -0.40 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 15 14 – 48 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sep 17 Waikato 3.30
2 Taranaki vs. Wellington Sep 18 Wellington -4.70
3 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 18 Tasman -16.80
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 19 Hawke’s Bay 2.20

 

September 14, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.80 6.83 1.00
Racing-Metro 92 6.99 6.13 0.90
La Rochelle 6.10 6.78 -0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 5.49 5.42 0.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.43 5.09 -0.70
Lyon Rugby 4.13 4.15 -0.00
Castres Olympique 1.15 0.94 0.20
Montpellier 0.83 -0.01 0.80
RC Toulonnais 0.80 1.82 -1.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.12 1.20 -1.10
Section Paloise -1.77 -2.25 0.50
Biarritz -2.69 -2.78 0.10
USA Perpignan -2.90 -2.78 -0.10
Brive -3.12 -3.19 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique Sep 11 30 – 34 10.80 FALSE
2 Montpellier vs. Brive Sep 11 39 – 17 9.60 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Rugby Sep 11 21 – 17 0.20 TRUE
4 USA Perpignan vs. Biarritz Sep 11 33 – 20 5.50 TRUE
5 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Sep 12 37 – 10 10.80 TRUE
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Sep 12 23 – 10 6.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. RC Toulonnais Sep 13 41 – 10 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Racing-Metro 92 Sep 18 Racing-Metro 92 -3.20
2 Brive vs. Section Paloise Sep 18 Brive 5.20
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles Sep 18 Castres Olympique 2.20
4 Lyon Rugby vs. USA Perpignan Sep 18 Lyon Rugby 13.50
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 19 Stade Toulousain -0.50
6 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Sep 19 Clermont Auvergne 4.80
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Sep 20 RC Toulonnais 7.20

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.21 14.53 5.70
Rabbitohs 14.67 7.73 6.90
Panthers 13.75 8.88 4.90
Sea Eagles 9.93 -4.77 14.70
Roosters 4.84 10.25 -5.40
Eels 1.64 1.68 -0.00
Titans 1.05 -7.22 8.30
Raiders -1.10 6.98 -8.10
Sharks -1.10 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -6.54 -2.61 -3.90
Dragons -7.99 -4.95 -3.00
Broncos -8.90 -11.16 2.30
Warriors -8.99 -1.84 -7.10
Bulldogs -10.25 -7.62 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.94 -3.07 -7.90
Cowboys -12.27 -8.05 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 142 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 10 40 – 12 6.60 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 11 25 – 24 4.40 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 11 10 – 16 0.20 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Knights Sep 12 28 – 20 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Sep 17 Sea Eagles 5.10
2 Panthers vs. Eels Sep 18 Panthers 12.10

 

September 7, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.20 6.83 0.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.67 6.13 0.50
La Rochelle 6.41 6.78 -0.40
Bordeaux-Begles 4.95 5.42 -0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.92 5.09 -0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.32 4.15 0.20
RC Toulonnais 1.40 1.82 -0.40
Castres Olympique 0.66 0.94 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris 0.66 1.20 -0.50
Montpellier 0.41 -0.01 0.40
Section Paloise -1.96 -2.25 0.30
Biarritz -2.32 -2.78 0.50
Brive -2.69 -3.19 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.27 -2.78 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 42.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Bordeaux-Begles Sep 04 27 – 15 -1.70 FALSE
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Sep 05 36 – 15 6.10 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Sep 05 16 – 12 9.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais Paris vs. Racing-Metro 92 Sep 05 21 – 36 1.60 FALSE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Montpellier Sep 05 24 – 24 8.30 FALSE
6 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Sep 06 28 – 19 5.60 TRUE
7 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 06 16 – 20 6.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique Sep 11 Clermont Auvergne 10.80
2 Montpellier vs. Brive Sep 11 Montpellier 9.60
3 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Rugby Sep 11 Section Paloise 0.20
4 USA Perpignan vs. Biarritz Sep 11 USA Perpignan 5.50
5 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Sep 12 Bordeaux-Begles 10.80
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Sep 12 Racing-Metro 92 6.80
7 Stade Toulousain vs. RC Toulonnais Sep 13 Stade Toulousain 12.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.35 7.35 0.00
Wasps 5.66 5.66 -0.00
Sale Sharks 4.96 4.96 -0.00
Bath 2.14 2.14 0.00
Bristol 1.28 1.28 -0.00
Gloucester -1.02 -1.02 0.00
Harlequins -1.08 -1.08 -0.00
Northampton Saints -2.48 -2.48 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -3.52 -3.52 -0.00
Saracens -5.00 -5.00 0.00
Worcester Warriors -5.71 -5.71 0.00
Leicester Tigers -6.14 -6.14 -0.00
London Irish -8.05 -8.05 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Saracens Sep 18 Bristol 10.80
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 19 Exeter Chiefs -9.00
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Sep 19 Northampton Saints 3.00
4 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Sep 19 Worcester Warriors 6.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Sep 19 Sale Sharks 7.30
6 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Sep 20 Newcastle Falcons 2.10

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.37 14.53 3.80
Panthers 14.32 8.88 5.40
Rabbitohs 14.10 7.73 6.40
Sea Eagles 11.77 -4.77 16.50
Roosters 5.16 10.25 -5.10
Eels 1.66 1.68 -0.00
Titans 0.72 -7.22 7.90
Raiders -1.10 6.98 -8.10
Sharks -1.10 -0.76 -0.30
Knights -6.57 -2.61 -4.00
Dragons -7.99 -4.95 -3.00
Broncos -8.90 -11.16 2.30
Warriors -8.99 -1.84 -7.10
Bulldogs -10.25 -7.62 -2.60
Wests Tigers -10.94 -3.07 -7.90
Cowboys -12.27 -8.05 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 139 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 02 16 – 40 1.00 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Storm Sep 03 16 – 28 -17.50 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Sep 03 6 – 40 -4.70 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Knights Sep 04 35 – 22 -1.90 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 18 – 46 -19.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 04 20 – 16 29.40 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Warriors Sep 05 44 – 0 6.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Sep 05 0 – 38 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Sep 10 Storm 6.60
2 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 11 Roosters 4.40
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 11 Panthers 0.20
4 Eels vs. Knights Sep 12 Eels 8.20

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.28 5.14 1.10
Sharks 5.10 5.19 -0.10
Western Province 1.42 3.28 -1.90
Lions -1.88 3.74 -5.60
Cheetahs -2.70 -2.17 -0.50
Pumas -3.31 -5.67 2.40
Griquas -4.92 -9.50 4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 04 28 – 24 13.90 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 04 48 – 31 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 11 Bulls 4.20

 

August 31, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.87 14.53 4.30
Rabbitohs 16.27 7.73 8.50
Panthers 11.84 8.88 3.00
Sea Eagles 11.01 -4.77 15.80
Eels 4.13 1.68 2.40
Roosters 3.03 10.25 -7.20
Raiders 1.03 6.98 -5.90
Sharks -1.60 -0.76 -0.80
Titans -2.41 -7.22 4.80
Knights -5.26 -2.61 -2.70
Warriors -5.86 -1.84 -4.00
Wests Tigers -6.96 -3.07 -3.90
Dragons -10.16 -4.95 -5.20
Broncos -10.21 -11.16 0.90
Cowboys -11.51 -8.05 -3.50
Bulldogs -14.22 -7.62 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Titans Aug 26 15 – 14 -3.70 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 27 16 – 28 -5.70 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Aug 27 12 – 54 -7.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Cowboys Aug 28 26 – 38 4.20 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Broncos Aug 28 24 – 16 5.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Eels Aug 28 10 – 22 20.10 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Aug 29 36 – 18 26.80 TRUE
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 30 – 16 19.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Roosters Sep 02 Raiders 1.00
2 Sharks vs. Storm Sep 03 Storm -17.50
3 Eels vs. Panthers Sep 03 Panthers -4.70
4 Broncos vs. Knights Sep 04 Knights -1.90
5 Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles Sep 04 Sea Eagles -19.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Sep 04 Rabbitohs 29.40
7 Titans vs. Warriors Sep 05 Titans 6.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Sep 05 Wests Tigers 10.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 5.83 5.14 0.70
Sharks 5.55 5.19 0.40
Western Province 1.87 3.28 -1.40
Lions -1.88 3.74 -5.60
Cheetahs -2.70 -2.17 -0.50
Pumas -3.31 -5.67 2.40
Griquas -5.36 -9.50 4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 28 13 – 13 1.20 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 39 – 36 12.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 29 24 – 35 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 04 Sharks 13.90
2 Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 04 Bulls 7.00

 

August 24, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.83 6.83 0.00
La Rochelle 6.78 6.78 -0.00
Racing-Metro 92 6.13 6.13 -0.00
Bordeaux-Begles 5.42 5.42 0.00
Clermont Auvergne 5.09 5.09 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 4.15 4.15 -0.00
RC Toulonnais 1.82 1.82 0.00
Stade Francais Paris 1.20 1.20 -0.00
Castres Olympique 0.94 0.94 -0.00
Montpellier -0.01 -0.01 -0.00
Section Paloise -2.25 -2.25 -0.00
Biarritz -2.78 -2.78 -0.00
USA Perpignan -2.78 -2.78 -0.00
Brive -3.19 -3.19 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Bordeaux-Begles Sep 04 Bordeaux-Begles -1.70
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Sep 05 Brive 6.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Sep 05 Castres Olympique 9.70
4 Stade Francais Paris vs. Racing-Metro 92 Sep 05 Stade Francais Paris 1.60
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Montpellier Sep 05 RC Toulonnais 8.30
6 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Sep 06 Lyon Rugby 5.60
7 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 06 La Rochelle 6.50

 

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