NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2
Team Ratings for Finals Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Storm | 20.21 | 14.53 | 5.70 |
Rabbitohs | 14.67 | 7.73 | 6.90 |
Panthers | 13.75 | 8.88 | 4.90 |
Sea Eagles | 9.93 | -4.77 | 14.70 |
Roosters | 4.84 | 10.25 | -5.40 |
Eels | 1.64 | 1.68 | -0.00 |
Titans | 1.05 | -7.22 | 8.30 |
Raiders | -1.10 | 6.98 | -8.10 |
Sharks | -1.10 | -0.76 | -0.30 |
Knights | -6.54 | -2.61 | -3.90 |
Dragons | -7.99 | -4.95 | -3.00 |
Broncos | -8.90 | -11.16 | 2.30 |
Warriors | -8.99 | -1.84 | -7.10 |
Bulldogs | -10.25 | -7.62 | -2.60 |
Wests Tigers | -10.94 | -3.07 | -7.90 |
Cowboys | -12.27 | -8.05 | -4.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 196 matches played, 142 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Storm vs. Sea Eagles | Sep 10 | 40 – 12 | 6.60 | TRUE |
2 | Roosters vs. Titans | Sep 11 | 25 – 24 | 4.40 | TRUE |
3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Sep 11 | 10 – 16 | 0.20 | FALSE |
4 | Eels vs. Knights | Sep 12 | 28 – 20 | 8.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Finals Week 2
Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Sep 17 | Sea Eagles | 5.10 |
2 | Panthers vs. Eels | Sep 18 | Panthers | 12.10 |