Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Wellington | 9.09 | 10.63 | -1.50 |
Hawke’s Bay | 6.95 | 6.09 | 0.90 |
Canterbury | 6.73 | 6.01 | 0.70 |
Taranaki | 5.54 | 5.21 | 0.30 |
Tasman | 4.49 | 2.17 | 2.30 |
Waikato | 4.35 | 5.30 | -1.00 |
North Harbour | 4.01 | 3.06 | 0.90 |
Bay of Plenty | 2.47 | 3.52 | -1.10 |
Auckland | 2.29 | 3.00 | -0.70 |
Otago | -2.20 | -3.26 | 1.10 |
Northland | -5.14 | -4.29 | -0.90 |
Counties Manukau | -7.54 | -5.22 | -2.30 |
Southland | -10.38 | -10.05 | -0.30 |
Manawatu | -17.19 | -18.73 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland | Aug 23 | 55 – 30 | 13.40 | TRUE |
2 | Counties Manukau vs. Tasman | Aug 24 | 3 – 48 | -4.40 | TRUE |
3 | Auckland vs. Canterbury | Aug 24 | 21 – 27 | -0.00 | TRUE |
4 | Southland vs. Taranaki | Aug 24 | 24 – 39 | -12.30 | TRUE |
5 | Otago vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 25 | 31 – 26 | -3.80 | FALSE |
6 | Wellington vs. Manawatu | Aug 25 | 39 – 31 | 32.40 | TRUE |
7 | North Harbour vs. Waikato | Aug 25 | 43 – 29 | 0.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Northland vs. Southland | Aug 30 | Northland | 8.20 |
2 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 31 | North Harbour | 14.60 |
3 | Taranaki vs. Otago | Aug 31 | Taranaki | 10.70 |
4 | Waikato vs. Auckland | Aug 31 | Waikato | 5.10 |
5 | Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 31 | Tasman | 5.00 |
6 | Canterbury vs. Wellington | Sep 01 | Canterbury | 0.60 |
7 | Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 01 | Hawke’s Bay | -21.10 |
8 | Waikato vs. Northland | Sep 04 | Waikato | 12.50 |