Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Exeter Chiefs | 7.58 | 7.35 | 0.20 |
Wasps | 5.56 | 5.66 | -0.10 |
Sale Sharks | 3.11 | 4.96 | -1.90 |
Harlequins | 0.41 | -1.08 | 1.50 |
Saracens | -0.13 | -5.00 | 4.90 |
Northampton Saints | -1.23 | -2.48 | 1.30 |
Bath | -1.38 | 2.14 | -3.50 |
Gloucester | -1.85 | -1.02 | -0.80 |
Leicester Tigers | -1.90 | -6.14 | 4.20 |
Bristol | -2.50 | 1.28 | -3.80 |
Newcastle Falcons | -2.82 | -3.52 | 0.70 |
London Irish | -7.62 | -8.05 | 0.40 |
Worcester Warriors | -8.84 | -5.71 | -3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins | Oct 16 | 28 – 22 | 7.40 | TRUE |
2 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol | Oct 17 | 13 – 5 | 3.60 | TRUE |
3 | Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 17 | 23 – 27 | 3.30 | FALSE |
4 | Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers | Oct 17 | 3 – 48 | 1.80 | FALSE |
5 | Bath vs. Saracens | Oct 18 | 17 – 71 | 8.60 | FALSE |
6 | London Irish vs. Gloucester | Oct 18 | 25 – 25 | -1.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors | Oct 23 | Northampton Saints | 12.10 |
2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish | Oct 24 | Exeter Chiefs | 19.70 |
3 | Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons | Oct 24 | Gloucester | 5.50 |
4 | Harlequins vs. Bath | Oct 24 | Harlequins | 6.30 |
5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | Oct 24 | Sale Sharks | -0.50 |
6 | Saracens vs. Wasps | Oct 25 | Wasps | -1.20 |