Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3
Team Ratings for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Wasps | 6.93 | 5.66 | 1.30 |
Exeter Chiefs | 5.38 | 7.35 | -2.00 |
Sale Sharks | 4.09 | 4.96 | -0.90 |
Bath | 1.59 | 2.14 | -0.50 |
Harlequins | -0.87 | -1.08 | 0.20 |
Northampton Saints | -1.09 | -2.48 | 1.40 |
Bristol | -1.33 | 1.28 | -2.60 |
Gloucester | -2.43 | -1.02 | -1.40 |
Newcastle Falcons | -3.05 | -3.52 | 0.50 |
Saracens | -3.65 | -5.00 | 1.40 |
Leicester Tigers | -4.16 | -6.14 | 2.00 |
Worcester Warriors | -5.13 | -5.71 | 0.60 |
London Irish | -7.88 | -8.05 | 0.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 41.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Sep 25 | 26 – 33 | 7.80 | FALSE |
2 | Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons | Sep 26 | 13 – 20 | 11.00 | FALSE |
3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | Sep 26 | 24 – 26 | 12.50 | FALSE |
4 | Harlequins vs. Worcester Warriors | Sep 26 | 35 – 29 | 9.30 | TRUE |
5 | Wasps vs. Bristol | Sep 26 | 44 – 8 | 10.20 | TRUE |
6 | London Irish vs. Sale Sharks | Sep 27 | 31 – 31 | -8.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bristol vs. Bath | Oct 02 | Bristol | 1.60 |
2 | Northampton Saints vs. London Irish | Oct 02 | Northampton Saints | 11.30 |
3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Oct 03 | Leicester Tigers | 4.00 |
4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps | Oct 03 | Wasps | -5.50 |
5 | Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester | Oct 03 | Worcester Warriors | 1.80 |
6 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Oct 04 | Sale Sharks | 3.20 |