Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

July 20, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

No actual games played last weekend so previous week results are for two weekends ago. Whether games will be played this weekend, who knows.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 3.25 3.28 -0.00
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.36 -2.17 -1.20
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.85 -9.50 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 28 – 30 15.40 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 17 – 16 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 21 Lions 13.80
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jul 21 Western Province -3.60
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 22 Sharks 4.60

 

July 13, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

Please note that I have treated most games as being played on neutral grounds, the exceptions being the Titans, Cowboys and Broncos home games. The NRL has announced that all clubs will be moved to Queensland and the games will be played at the same dates and times. However many of the games have their location still listed as TBA on the NRL website. I may have to issue an update later this week if the supposition of neutral grounds turns out to not be true. The most likely game where this might be the case is the Storm versus Knights game.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.02 14.53 9.50
Panthers 14.40 8.88 5.50
Eels 10.11 1.68 8.40
Rabbitohs 8.45 7.73 0.70
Sea Eagles 7.54 -4.77 12.30
Roosters 3.00 10.25 -7.20
Sharks -2.66 -0.76 -1.90
Raiders -3.51 6.98 -10.50
Warriors -4.04 -1.84 -2.20
Titans -4.18 -7.22 3.00
Dragons -4.85 -4.95 0.10
Knights -5.15 -2.61 -2.50
Wests Tigers -5.45 -3.07 -2.40
Cowboys -12.55 -8.05 -4.50
Broncos -13.48 -11.16 -2.30
Bulldogs -13.65 -7.62 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jul 08 16 – 30 19.70 FALSE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 09 46 – 18 23.10 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 10 16 – 22 -15.30 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 11 20 – 12 3.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Titans vs. Eels Jul 16 Eels -11.30
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 16 Sea Eagles 15.40
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 17 Raiders 2.10
4 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 17 Roosters -12.50
5 Storm vs. Knights Jul 17 Storm 32.20
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 18 Panthers -21.40
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 Wests Tigers -5.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 Rabbitohs 25.10

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

A note concerning treatment of cancelled games, or where a 0-0 score is allocated. I delete any cancelled games from my database, but also any games with an awarded result. That is because awarded result games will almost always cause an adjustment to my ratings which is not justifiable.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 3.25 3.28 -0.00
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.36 -2.17 -1.20
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.85 -9.50 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 28 – 30 15.40 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 17 – 16 4.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Jul 17 Sharks 12.70
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 17 Bulls -8.70
3 Lions vs. Cheetahs Jul 17 Lions 9.30

 

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July 6, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.02 14.53 9.50
Panthers 14.40 8.88 5.50
Sea Eagles 10.37 -4.77 15.10
Eels 10.11 1.68 8.40
Rabbitohs 7.99 7.73 0.30
Roosters 3.83 10.25 -6.40
Sharks -3.07 -0.76 -2.30
Warriors -3.63 -1.84 -1.80
Titans -4.18 -7.22 3.00
Dragons -4.85 -4.95 0.10
Knights -5.15 -2.61 -2.50
Wests Tigers -5.45 -3.07 -2.40
Raiders -6.34 6.98 -13.30
Cowboys -12.09 -8.05 -4.00
Broncos -13.48 -11.16 -2.30
Bulldogs -14.48 -7.62 -6.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 0 – 46 -11.40 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 18 – 19 -2.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 13 – 12 8.70 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 0 – 66 -13.20 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 6 – 44 8.50 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 38 – 0 4.30 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 26 – 18 -10.60 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 22 – 38 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Jul 08 Sea Eagles 19.70
2 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 09 Rabbitohs 23.10
3 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Jul 10 Roosters -15.30
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jul 11 Sharks 3.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Western Province 3.91 3.28 0.60
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.56 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -8.52 -9.50 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 26 – 22 7.60 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 32 – 31 1.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Jul 07 Western Province 15.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Jul 09 Cheetahs 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 10 Sharks 5.50

 

June 29, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 3.96 3.28 0.70
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Lions 2.91 3.74 -0.80
Cheetahs -3.04 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.23 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -8.84 -9.50 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 38 – 32 1.40 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 32 – 27 11.80 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 31 – 10 -4.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Jul 01 Bulls -3.90
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 02 Pumas 7.60
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Jul 03 Western Province 1.60

 

June 22, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.84 2.32 5.50
Racing-Metro 92 6.93 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.71 4.80 1.90
Bordeaux-Begles 5.27 2.83 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.23 3.22 2.00
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Stade Francais Paris 1.16 -3.22 4.40
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 186 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jun 19 19 – 6 5.30 TRUE
2 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jun 20 24 – 21 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. La Rochelle Jun 26 Stade Toulousain 4.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.78 7.35 2.40
Sale Sharks 5.77 4.96 0.80
Bristol 4.72 1.28 3.40
Harlequins 3.43 -1.08 4.50
Northampton Saints -0.75 -2.48 1.70
Wasps -1.95 5.66 -7.60
Gloucester -2.57 -1.02 -1.50
Leicester Tigers -2.70 -6.14 3.40
Bath -2.81 2.14 -4.90
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -9.04 -10.00 1.00
Worcester Warriors -9.80 -5.71 -4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 20 36 – 43 7.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 20 40 – 30 8.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 27 Exeter Chiefs -6.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.40 5.19 0.20
Western Province 4.22 3.28 0.90
Bulls 4.19 5.14 -0.90
Lions 2.65 3.74 -1.10
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -4.58 -5.67 1.10
Griquas -9.71 -9.50 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 39 – 10 -6.40 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 16 – 30 -11.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 24 – 48 4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Western Province Jun 24 Lions 1.40
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Jun 26 Bulls 11.80
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Jun 26 Cheetahs -4.50

 

June 19, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.19 5.19 0.00
Bulls 5.14 5.14 0.00
Lions 3.74 3.74 -0.00
Western Province 3.28 3.28 0.00
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.17 0.00
Pumas -5.67 -5.67 -0.00
Griquas -9.50 -9.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jun 19 Lions -6.40
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Jun 19 Sharks -11.70
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Jun 20 Bulls 4.90

 

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