Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

August 10, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

These predictions are preliminary only, because game locations are mainly listed as TBA. The only games on the NRL site with an actual location are the home games for the Broncos and Cowboys. Yesterday the NRL even had the Warriors playing at home in Auckland, so uncertainty abounds. I have treated all the TBA listed games as being played on neutral grounds, except the Rabbitohs versus Titans which I have predicted as if it were a home game for the Titans.

I will update later in the week if things change.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 23.66 14.53 9.10
Rabbitohs 13.22 7.73 5.50
Panthers 11.07 8.88 2.20
Sea Eagles 9.49 -4.77 14.30
Roosters 6.81 10.25 -3.40
Eels 4.64 1.68 3.00
Titans -1.07 -7.22 6.20
Raiders -2.02 6.98 -9.00
Sharks -4.05 -0.76 -3.30
Wests Tigers -5.06 -3.07 -2.00
Warriors -5.27 -1.84 -3.40
Knights -5.66 -2.61 -3.10
Dragons -8.53 -4.95 -3.60
Broncos -11.58 -11.16 -0.40
Cowboys -12.67 -8.05 -4.60
Bulldogs -14.99 -7.62 -7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 05 28 – 20 5.40 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 06 20 – 12 6.10 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 12 – 40 -4.60 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 07 18 – 16 -2.00 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 07 14 – 20 -3.80 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 07 18 – 28 -15.10 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 16 – 28 -9.40 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 08 36 – 14 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 12 Storm 25.70
2 Dragons vs. Panthers Aug 13 Panthers -19.60
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Aug 13 Roosters -15.40
4 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Aug 14 Rabbitohs 11.30
5 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 14 Wests Tigers -7.60
6 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 14 Sea Eagles 4.80
7 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 Warriors 9.70
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 15 Sharks 1.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.49 10.71 0.80
Auckland 8.49 7.95 0.50
Wellington 7.72 5.62 2.10
Canterbury 5.90 6.44 -0.50
North Harbour 4.43 5.75 -1.30
Bay of Plenty 4.42 5.20 -0.80
Waikato 3.84 2.52 1.30
Hawke’s Bay 2.79 4.07 -1.30
Taranaki -3.24 -4.52 1.30
Otago -3.77 -3.47 -0.30
Northland -6.85 -4.75 -2.10
Southland -10.08 -10.39 0.30
Counties Manukau -11.50 -10.22 -1.30
Manawatu -13.45 -14.72 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Aug 06 39 – 21 -1.00 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 07 33 – 19 -5.10 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 07 54 – 7 13.90 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Southland Aug 07 26 – 19 10.40 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 08 14 – 27 -2.00 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 08 15 – 28 6.70 FALSE
7 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 08 35 – 24 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Aug 13 North Harbour -12.40
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 14 Tasman 6.50
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Aug 14 Hawke’s Bay 10.10
4 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 14 Canterbury 22.80
5 Southland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 Bay of Plenty -11.00
6 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 15 Wellington -0.40
7 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 15 Taranaki -0.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

I got caught again this week with the Sharks versus Bulls game, which was originally listed to be a home game for the Bulls, but in fact was played in Durban. I think it was thus the Round 6 game. I have changed the prediction to reflect the reality of where the game was played so that my ratings are properly updated for future predictions.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.32 5.19 0.10
Bulls 4.98 5.14 -0.20
Western Province 1.80 3.28 -1.50
Lions 0.88 3.74 -2.90
Cheetahs -2.76 -2.17 -0.60
Pumas -4.18 -5.67 1.50
Griquas -6.04 -9.50 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 06 42 – 45 -4.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 07 35 – 28 2.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 07 40 – 39 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 11 Sharks -6.50
2 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 11 Bulls 14.00
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 12 Lions -0.60

 

August 4, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 24.13 14.53 9.60
Rabbitohs 11.22 7.73 3.50
Panthers 10.86 8.88 2.00
Sea Eagles 9.02 -4.77 13.80
Roosters 7.02 10.25 -3.20
Eels 6.64 1.68 5.00
Titans -1.88 -7.22 5.30
Raiders -2.20 6.98 -9.20
Sharks -3.68 -0.76 -2.90
Wests Tigers -5.32 -3.07 -2.30
Warriors -5.64 -1.84 -3.80
Knights -5.92 -2.61 -3.30
Dragons -8.34 -4.95 -3.40
Broncos -11.32 -11.16 -0.20
Cowboys -11.86 -8.05 -3.80
Bulldogs -14.73 -7.62 -7.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 29 28 – 0 -5.20 FALSE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 30 16 – 18 0.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Jul 30 37 – 18 0.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 31 14 – 50 -16.10 TRUE
5 Knights vs. Raiders Jul 31 34 – 24 -6.60 FALSE
6 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 31 37 – 10 10.40 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 01 6 – 34 -13.30 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 01 22 – 40 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 05 Knights 5.40
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 06 Raiders 6.10
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 06 Rabbitohs -4.60
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 07 Sharks -2.00
5 Roosters vs. Panthers Aug 07 Panthers -3.80
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Aug 07 Storm -15.10
7 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Aug 08 Wests Tigers -9.40
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 08 Titans 13.00

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 10.71 10.71 0.00
Auckland 7.95 7.95 0.00
Canterbury 6.44 6.44 0.00
North Harbour 5.75 5.75 -0.00
Wellington 5.62 5.62 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 5.20 5.20 0.00
Hawke’s Bay 4.07 4.07 0.00
Waikato 2.52 2.52 0.00
Otago -3.47 -3.47 -0.00
Taranaki -4.52 -4.52 0.00
Northland -4.75 -4.75 0.00
Counties Manukau -10.22 -10.22 0.00
Southland -10.39 -10.39 -0.00
Manawatu -14.72 -14.72 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Aug 06 Counties Manukau -1.00
2 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 07 Hawke’s Bay -5.10
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 07 Wellington 13.90
4 Otago vs. Southland Aug 07 Otago 10.40
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Aug 08 Tasman -2.00
6 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 08 North Harbour 6.70
7 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 08 Auckland 5.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 5.22 5.14 0.10
Sharks 5.08 5.19 -0.10
Western Province 2.16 3.28 -1.10
Lions 0.99 3.74 -2.80
Cheetahs -3.12 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.18 -5.67 1.50
Griquas -6.14 -9.50 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 30 33 – 36 9.20 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Bulls Jul 31 13 – 34 1.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 31 27 – 37 16.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 06 Lions -4.10
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 07 Bulls 3.10
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 07 Western Province 8.30

 

July 27, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 20

By

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 22.69 14.53 8.20
Panthers 12.30 8.88 3.40
Rabbitohs 9.52 7.73 1.80
Eels 9.43 1.68 7.70
Sea Eagles 8.42 -4.77 13.20
Roosters 4.24 10.25 -6.00
Raiders -0.76 6.98 -7.70
Sharks -3.08 -0.76 -2.30
Titans -3.17 -7.22 4.10
Wests Tigers -5.03 -3.07 -2.00
Warriors -5.93 -1.84 -4.10
Dragons -6.63 -4.95 -1.70
Knights -7.36 -2.61 -4.80
Cowboys -10.24 -8.05 -2.20
Broncos -12.93 -11.16 -1.80
Bulldogs -13.45 -7.62 -5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Raiders Jul 22 10 – 12 12.80 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 23 28 – 8 9.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 23 16 – 20 -35.20 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 24 60 – 22 10.80 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 44 – 24 12.00 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 24 18 – 12 25.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 25 10 – 32 -3.20 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 25 24 – 44 -8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 29 Eels -5.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 30 Wests Tigers 0.90
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Jul 30 Broncos 0.30
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jul 31 Rabbitohs -16.10
5 Knights vs. Raiders Jul 31 Raiders -6.60
6 Storm vs. Panthers Jul 31 Storm 10.40
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Aug 01 Titans -13.30
8 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Aug 01 Sea Eagles -11.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.96 5.19 0.80
Bulls 4.43 5.14 -0.70
Western Province 2.96 3.28 -0.30
Lions 1.51 3.74 -2.20
Cheetahs -3.12 -2.17 -0.90
Pumas -4.70 -5.67 1.00
Griquas -7.02 -9.50 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 24 30 – 47 -5.10 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Jul 25 23 – 37 -3.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 25 40 – 21 4.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 30 Lions 9.20
2 Western Province vs. Bulls Jul 31 Western Province 1.50
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Jul 31 Sharks 16.00

 

July 25, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

I got caught out with the Round 6 games being played midweek so missed out on predicting one game prior to it being played. As always my predictions are not altered even though made after the game has been played. The Currie Cup is proving difficult to predict however.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.45 5.19 0.30
Bulls 3.85 5.14 -1.30
Western Province 2.50 3.28 -0.80
Lions 2.08 3.74 -1.70
Cheetahs -2.61 -2.17 -0.40
Pumas -4.24 -5.67 1.40
Griquas -7.02 -9.50 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 21 31 – 41 13.80 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jul 21 38 – 21 -3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 24 Sharks -5.10
2 Pumas vs. Western Province Jul 25 Western Province -3.70
3 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 25 Bulls 4.80

 

July 20, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 25.32 14.53 10.80
Panthers 13.99 8.88 5.10
Eels 10.72 1.68 9.00
Sea Eagles 7.70 -4.77 12.50
Rabbitohs 7.21 7.73 -0.50
Roosters 3.33 10.25 -6.90
Raiders -2.05 6.98 -9.00
Warriors -3.63 -1.84 -1.80
Sharks -4.12 -0.76 -3.40
Wests Tigers -4.31 -3.07 -1.20
Titans -4.79 -7.22 2.40
Dragons -5.01 -4.95 -0.10
Knights -6.45 -2.61 -3.80
Bulldogs -12.41 -7.62 -4.80
Cowboys -12.87 -8.05 -4.80
Broncos -14.62 -11.16 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Eels Jul 16 8 – 26 -11.30 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jul 16 32 – 18 12.40 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Sharks Jul 17 34 – 18 -0.90 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 17 18 – 34 -12.50 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Knights Jul 17 48 – 4 29.20 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 18 16 – 30 -18.40 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 24 – 42 -5.00 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jul 18 32 – 24 22.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Raiders Jul 22 Eels 12.80
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 23 Roosters 9.80
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 23 Storm -35.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jul 24 Rabbitohs 10.80
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 Sea Eagles 12.00
6 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 24 Panthers 25.60
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 25 Titans -3.20
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 25 Sharks -8.30

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »