Posts filed under Sports statistics (1531)

December 28, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.23 7.35 -2.10
Saracens 3.24 -5.00 8.20
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Wasps 1.85 5.66 -3.80
Harlequins 1.17 -1.08 2.20
Leicester Tigers 0.83 -6.14 7.00
Gloucester 0.75 -1.02 1.80
Northampton Saints -0.49 -2.48 2.00
Bristol -3.18 1.28 -4.50
Newcastle Falcons -4.01 -3.52 -0.50
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.00 2.14 -7.10
Worcester Warriors -9.93 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 49.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Dec 27 20 – 40 0.90 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 26 – 28 1.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Dec 27 41 – 27 5.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 61 – 29 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. London Irish Dec 27 38 – 30 10.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 02 Exeter Chiefs 12.90
2 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Jan 02 Sale Sharks 4.60
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Jan 03 Gloucester 4.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 03 Leicester Tigers 9.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jan 03 Northampton Saints 0.80
6 London Irish vs. Bath Jan 04 London Irish 5.40

 

December 7, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 7.17 7.41 -0.20
Connacht 3.16 1.72 1.40
Edinburgh 3.04 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.98 3.69 -0.70
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Ospreys 0.69 0.94 -0.20
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -4.32 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -15.68 -13.47 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Dec 04 24 – 10 13.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 04 47 – 19 15.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 04 30 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Ulster Dec 05 19 – 13 -1.30 FALSE
5 Glasgow vs. Dragons Dec 05 33 – 14 14.90 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 05 19 – 37 9.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 25 Benetton -6.40
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 5.90
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Dec 27 Ospreys 11.80
4 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 27 Ulster 9.00
5 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Munster 0.60
6 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 28 Glasgow 4.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 7.67 6.78 0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 7.40 5.42 2.00
Lyon Rugby 5.47 4.15 1.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.01 6.13 -2.10
Montpellier 3.07 -0.01 3.10
Castres Olympique 0.82 0.94 -0.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.13 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.78 -2.25 -0.50
Brive -2.96 -3.19 0.20
Biarritz -4.14 -2.78 -1.40
USA Perpignan -4.35 -2.78 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 17 – 7 5.10 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 25 – 3 2.00 TRUE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Biarritz Dec 05 39 – 11 14.60 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive Dec 05 41 – 0 13.20 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 05 30 – 6 13.20 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 16 – 16 4.40 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Dec 06 25 – 20 -1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Montpellier Dec 27 Montpellier -0.70
2 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 Clermont Auvergne -1.30
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 La Rochelle 8.70
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Dec 27 Racing-Metro 92 13.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 Stade Toulousain 14.70
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 Bordeaux-Begles -1.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Dec 27 USA Perpignan 1.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.23 7.35 -2.10
Saracens 2.39 -5.00 7.40
Wasps 2.08 5.66 -3.60
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Harlequins 0.66 -1.08 1.70
Leicester Tigers 0.59 -6.14 6.70
Northampton Saints 0.02 -2.48 2.50
Gloucester -0.31 -1.02 0.70
Bristol -2.94 1.28 -4.20
Bath -3.94 2.14 -6.10
Newcastle Falcons -4.01 -3.52 -0.50
London Irish -4.27 -8.05 3.80
Worcester Warriors -9.09 -5.71 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 05 18 – 15 8.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Dec 05 27 – 10 5.90 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 05 16 – 14 4.90 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 05 43 – 21 2.20 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Dec 05 40 – 19 6.90 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Dec 05 32 – 31 -7.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Dec 27 Bath 0.90
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 Bristol 1.00
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Dec 27 Harlequins 5.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 27 Sale Sharks -1.50
5 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 Saracens 16.00
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Dec 27 Wasps 10.80

 

November 30, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.72 14.79 -0.10
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 7.83 7.41 0.40
Connacht 3.83 1.72 2.10
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Bulls 2.61 3.65 -1.00
Glasgow 2.60 3.69 -1.10
Stormers 1.57 0.00 1.60
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Ospreys 0.03 0.94 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -3.08 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.31 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -5.75 -6.92 1.20
Zebre -15.68 -13.47 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 27 46 – 18 8.30 TRUE
2 Benetton vs. Glasgow Nov 27 19 – 18 -0.70 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 28 14 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Nov 28 10 – 20 14.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Dec 04 Edinburgh 13.80
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 04 Leinster 15.90
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 04 Sharks 2.70
4 Ospreys vs. Ulster Dec 05 Ulster -1.30
5 Glasgow vs. Dragons Dec 05 Glasgow 14.90
6 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 05 Stormers 9.70

 

View comments (2)

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.60 6.83 1.80
La Rochelle 8.00 6.78 1.20
Bordeaux-Begles 7.15 5.42 1.70
Racing-Metro 92 4.65 6.13 -1.50
Lyon Rugby 4.62 4.15 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.40 5.09 -0.70
Montpellier 2.69 -0.01 2.70
Castres Olympique 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.21 1.20 -1.40
RC Toulonnais -0.41 1.82 -2.20
Brive -2.11 -3.19 1.10
Section Paloise -2.56 -2.25 -0.30
Biarritz -3.68 -2.78 -0.90
USA Perpignan -3.97 -2.78 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 17 – 14 3.00 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 36 – 8 16.30 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 28 25 – 24 9.90 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 14 – 37 5.70 FALSE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Nov 28 18 – 11 18.00 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 28 19 – 13 1.00 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 26 – 24 -2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 Bordeaux-Begles 5.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 Castres Olympique 2.00
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Biarritz Dec 05 Clermont Auvergne 14.60
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive Dec 05 Lyon Rugby 13.20
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 05 Montpellier 13.20
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 Section Paloise 4.40
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Dec 06 La Rochelle -1.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.54 7.35 -1.80
Wasps 2.58 5.66 -3.10
Saracens 2.08 -5.00 7.10
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Leicester Tigers 0.82 -6.14 7.00
Harlequins 0.43 -1.08 1.50
Northampton Saints -0.74 -2.48 1.70
Gloucester -0.93 -1.02 0.10
Bristol -2.32 1.28 -3.60
Newcastle Falcons -3.00 -3.52 0.50
Bath -3.18 2.14 -5.30
London Irish -5.29 -8.05 2.80
Worcester Warriors -9.59 -5.71 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 44.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 28 16 – 23 -3.70 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Nov 28 20 – 36 5.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. London Irish Nov 28 19 – 22 11.80 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 28 24 – 24 12.50 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 25 – 14 3.70 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Gloucester Nov 28 33 – 35 9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 05 Exeter Chiefs 8.00
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Dec 05 Gloucester 5.90
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 05 Leicester Tigers 4.90
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 05 London Irish 2.20
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Dec 05 Northampton Saints 6.90
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Dec 05 Wasps -7.70

 

November 16, 2021

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 10.20 10.71 -0.50
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 7.11 4.07 3.00
Wellington 5.93 5.62 0.30
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Canterbury 3.49 6.44 -2.90
Waikato 2.29 2.52 -0.20
Taranaki 1.83 -4.52 6.40
Bay of Plenty 0.78 5.20 -4.40
Otago -2.28 -3.47 1.20
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Manawatu -10.85 -14.72 3.90
Southland -10.88 -10.39 -0.50
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Otago Nov 12 16 – 44 -1.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 13 25 – 13 17.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Nov 13 27 – 33 1.80 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Canterbury Nov 13 17 – 14 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Finals

Here are the predictions for the Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Otago Nov 20 Taranaki 7.60
2 Waikato vs. Tasman Nov 20 Tasman -4.40

 

November 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.98 6.83 2.20
La Rochelle 7.60 6.78 0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 6.29 5.42 0.90
Racing-Metro 92 5.52 6.13 -0.60
Lyon Rugby 4.88 4.15 0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.61 5.09 -0.50
Montpellier 3.14 -0.01 3.10
Stade Francais Paris -0.21 1.20 -1.40
Castres Olympique -0.26 0.94 -1.20
RC Toulonnais -0.66 1.82 -2.50
Section Paloise -2.15 -2.25 0.10
Brive -2.49 -3.19 0.70
Biarritz -3.68 -2.78 -0.90
USA Perpignan -4.18 -2.78 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 06 26 – 3 6.70 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 07 12 – 10 -1.90 FALSE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique Nov 07 30 – 23 12.20 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Biarritz Nov 07 33 – 21 7.60 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier Nov 07 27 – 31 4.00 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 07 37 – 15 19.40 TRUE
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 08 31 – 16 11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 Biarritz 3.00
2 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 La Rochelle 16.30
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 28 Montpellier 9.90
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 Racing-Metro 92 5.70
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Nov 28 Stade Toulousain 18.00
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 28 RC Toulonnais 1.00
7 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 Clermont Auvergne -2.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.28 7.35 -2.10
Wasps 3.20 5.66 -2.50
Sale Sharks 2.41 4.96 -2.60
Saracens 1.65 -5.00 6.70
Harlequins 1.22 -1.08 2.30
Leicester Tigers 0.82 -6.14 7.00
Bristol -1.25 1.28 -2.50
Gloucester -1.56 -1.02 -0.50
Northampton Saints -1.80 -2.48 0.70
Newcastle Falcons -2.32 -3.52 1.20
Bath -2.92 2.14 -5.10
London Irish -6.08 -8.05 2.00
Worcester Warriors -10.27 -5.71 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Nov 06 40 – 23 7.10 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 07 27 – 5 12.40 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 07 14 – 15 13.70 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 07 30 – 6 6.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 07 34 – 34 13.70 FALSE
6 Wasps vs. Harlequins Nov 08 16 – 26 8.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 28 Exeter Chiefs -3.70
2 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Nov 28 Bristol 5.00
3 Harlequins vs. London Irish Nov 28 Harlequins 11.80
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 28 Newcastle Falcons 12.50
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 Saracens 3.70
6 Wasps vs. Gloucester Nov 28 Wasps 9.30

 

« Later posts
Earlier posts »