United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 15.38 | 14.79 | 0.60 |
Munster | 10.22 | 10.69 | -0.50 |
Ulster | 7.47 | 7.41 | 0.10 |
Edinburgh | 3.77 | 2.90 | 0.90 |
Connacht | 3.60 | 1.72 | 1.90 |
Glasgow | 3.55 | 3.69 | -0.10 |
Bulls | 1.98 | 3.65 | -1.70 |
Sharks | 0.97 | -0.07 | 1.00 |
Stormers | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
Ospreys | 0.07 | 0.94 | -0.90 |
Cardiff Rugby | -1.61 | -0.11 | -1.50 |
Scarlets | -1.72 | -0.77 | -1.00 |
Lions | -1.80 | -3.91 | 2.10 |
Benetton | -3.39 | -4.50 | 1.10 |
Dragons | -6.12 | -6.92 | 0.80 |
Zebre | -16.61 | -13.47 | -3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby | Jan 09 | 34 – 10 | 10.40 | TRUE |
2 | Glasgow vs. Ospreys | Jan 09 | 38 – 19 | 8.80 | TRUE |
3 | Munster vs. Ulster | Jan 09 | 18 – 13 | 8.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jan 23 | Lions | 2.20 |
2 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jan 23 | Bulls | 6.70 |