United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 14.71 | 14.79 | -0.10 |
Munster | 9.92 | 10.69 | -0.80 |
Ulster | 7.71 | 7.41 | 0.30 |
Glasgow | 4.87 | 3.69 | 1.20 |
Edinburgh | 3.66 | 2.90 | 0.80 |
Bulls | 2.28 | 3.65 | -1.40 |
Stormers | 1.83 | 0.00 | 1.80 |
Connacht | 1.71 | 1.72 | -0.00 |
Sharks | 0.69 | -0.07 | 0.80 |
Ospreys | 0.18 | 0.94 | -0.80 |
Cardiff Rugby | -0.93 | -0.11 | -0.80 |
Scarlets | -1.39 | -0.77 | -0.60 |
Benetton | -3.05 | -4.50 | 1.40 |
Lions | -3.37 | -3.91 | 0.50 |
Dragons | -6.46 | -6.92 | 0.50 |
Zebre | -16.31 | -13.47 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 67 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ulster vs. Connacht | Feb 05 | 32 – 12 | 9.90 | TRUE |
2 | Bulls vs. Lions | Feb 06 | 21 – 13 | 11.20 | TRUE |
3 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Feb 06 | 20 – 10 | 5.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Leinster vs. Edinburgh | Feb 12 | Leinster | 17.50 |
2 | Glasgow vs. Munster | Feb 12 | Glasgow | 1.40 |
3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 13 | Stormers | -0.20 |
4 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Feb 13 | Bulls | 6.60 |