NRL Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 23.81 | 14.26 | 9.50 |
Storm | 8.88 | 19.20 | -10.30 |
Knights | 8.36 | -6.54 | 14.90 |
Broncos | 7.52 | -8.90 | 16.40 |
Eels | 2.15 | 2.54 | -0.40 |
Dragons | 1.98 | -7.99 | 10.00 |
Sea Eagles | 1.44 | 10.99 | -9.60 |
Titans | 1.44 | 1.05 | 0.40 |
Raiders | 0.50 | -1.10 | 1.60 |
Rabbitohs | -0.61 | 15.81 | -16.40 |
Wests Tigers | -0.62 | -10.94 | 10.30 |
Sharks | -2.70 | -1.10 | -1.60 |
Bulldogs | -7.86 | -10.25 | 2.40 |
Roosters | -12.67 | 2.23 | -14.90 |
Cowboys | -14.65 | -12.27 | -2.40 |
Warriors | -18.96 | -8.99 | -10.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 10 | 28 – 6 | 6.30 | TRUE |
2 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Mar 11 | 24 – 19 | 3.00 | TRUE |
3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 11 | 11 – 4 | -21.70 | FALSE |
4 | Roosters vs. Knights | Mar 12 | 6 – 20 | 11.80 | FALSE |
5 | Warriors vs. Dragons | Mar 12 | 16 – 28 | 4.50 | FALSE |
6 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Mar 12 | 16 – 26 | -27.10 | TRUE |
7 | Eels vs. Titans | Mar 13 | 32 – 28 | 4.50 | TRUE |
8 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Mar 13 | 4 – 6 | 1.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 17 | Storm | 12.50 |
2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 18 | Panthers | -18.80 |
3 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 18 | Sea Eagles | -11.10 |
4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Mar 19 | Titans | 25.90 |
5 | Sharks vs. Eels | Mar 19 | Eels | -1.80 |
6 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Mar 19 | Raiders | -12.10 |
7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 20 | Knights | 12.00 |
8 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Mar 20 | Broncos | -12.40 |