Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

January 4, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 8.04 6.78 1.30
Bordeaux-Begles 6.89 5.42 1.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Lyon Rugby 4.74 4.15 0.60
Racing-Metro 92 4.29 6.13 -1.80
Montpellier 3.55 -0.01 3.60
Castres Olympique 1.02 0.94 0.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.07 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.24 -2.25 0.00
Brive -3.49 -3.19 -0.30
Biarritz -4.10 -2.78 -1.30
USA Perpignan -4.41 -2.78 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 16 – 13 3.00 TRUE
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. USA Perpignan Jan 02 27 – 17 11.10 TRUE
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Biarritz Jan 03 30 – 27 18.50 TRUE
4 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Jan 03 31 – 30 -0.70 FALSE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 03 37 – 35 7.50 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Brive Jan 03 43 – 20 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. USA Perpignan Jan 09 Biarritz 6.80
2 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 09 Bordeaux-Begles -3.90
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 Castres Olympique 7.40
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 09 Lyon Rugby 13.50
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 Racing-Metro 92 5.90
6 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Jan 09 La Rochelle -1.70
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 10 Stade Toulousain 11.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.82 7.35 -2.50
Saracens 4.46 -5.00 9.50
Sale Sharks 2.25 4.96 -2.70
Leicester Tigers 1.92 -6.14 8.10
Harlequins 1.59 -1.08 2.70
Wasps 1.58 5.66 -4.10
Gloucester 0.32 -1.02 1.30
Northampton Saints -1.72 -2.48 0.80
Bristol -2.76 1.28 -4.00
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.00 2.14 -7.10
Newcastle Falcons -5.10 -3.52 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -9.93 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 02 19 – 13 12.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Jan 02 26 – 18 4.60 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Jan 03 17 – 20 4.10 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 03 31 – 0 9.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jan 03 6 – 30 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 08 Sale Sharks -0.50
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 09 Harlequins 1.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Jan 09 Newcastle Falcons 1.10
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Jan 09 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 10 Bath 9.40
6 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 Wasps 4.20

 

December 28, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 7.17 7.41 -0.20
Connacht 3.16 1.72 1.40
Edinburgh 3.04 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.98 3.69 -0.70
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Ospreys 0.69 0.94 -0.20
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 25 14 – 39 -6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Cardiff Rugby -0.20
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 02 Munster -2.80
3 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Jan 02 Scarlets 2.60
4 Ulster vs. Leinster Jan 02 Leinster -3.20
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Jan 03 Benetton 18.20
6 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Jan 03 Edinburgh 5.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 8.12 6.78 1.30
Bordeaux-Begles 7.40 5.42 2.00
Lyon Rugby 5.02 4.15 0.90
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.01 6.13 -2.10
Montpellier 3.55 -0.01 3.60
Castres Olympique 0.94 0.94 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.13 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.78 -2.25 -0.50
Brive -2.96 -3.19 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.46 -2.78 -1.70
Biarritz -4.62 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Dec 27 19 – 20 1.30 FALSE
2 Biarritz vs. Montpellier Dec 28 12 – 27 -0.70 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 28 25 – 3 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 Clermont Auvergne 3.00
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. USA Perpignan Jan 02 Stade Francais Paris 11.10
3 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Biarritz Jan 03 Bordeaux-Begles 18.50
4 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Jan 03 La Rochelle -0.70
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 03 Lyon Rugby 7.50
6 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 03 Montpellier 10.20
7 Section Paloise vs. Brive Jan 03 Section Paloise 6.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.23 7.35 -2.10
Saracens 3.24 -5.00 8.20
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Wasps 1.85 5.66 -3.80
Harlequins 1.17 -1.08 2.20
Leicester Tigers 0.83 -6.14 7.00
Gloucester 0.75 -1.02 1.80
Northampton Saints -0.49 -2.48 2.00
Bristol -3.18 1.28 -4.50
Newcastle Falcons -4.01 -3.52 -0.50
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.00 2.14 -7.10
Worcester Warriors -9.93 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 49.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Dec 27 20 – 40 0.90 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 26 – 28 1.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Dec 27 41 – 27 5.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 61 – 29 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. London Irish Dec 27 38 – 30 10.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 02 Exeter Chiefs 12.90
2 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Jan 02 Sale Sharks 4.60
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Jan 03 Gloucester 4.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 03 Leicester Tigers 9.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jan 03 Northampton Saints 0.80
6 London Irish vs. Bath Jan 04 London Irish 5.40

 

December 7, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 7.17 7.41 -0.20
Connacht 3.16 1.72 1.40
Edinburgh 3.04 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.98 3.69 -0.70
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Ospreys 0.69 0.94 -0.20
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -4.32 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -15.68 -13.47 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Dec 04 24 – 10 13.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 04 47 – 19 15.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 04 30 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Ulster Dec 05 19 – 13 -1.30 FALSE
5 Glasgow vs. Dragons Dec 05 33 – 14 14.90 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 05 19 – 37 9.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 25 Benetton -6.40
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 5.90
3 Ospreys vs. Dragons Dec 27 Ospreys 11.80
4 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 27 Ulster 9.00
5 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Munster 0.60
6 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 28 Glasgow 4.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 7.67 6.78 0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 7.40 5.42 2.00
Lyon Rugby 5.47 4.15 1.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.01 6.13 -2.10
Montpellier 3.07 -0.01 3.10
Castres Olympique 0.82 0.94 -0.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.13 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.78 -2.25 -0.50
Brive -2.96 -3.19 0.20
Biarritz -4.14 -2.78 -1.40
USA Perpignan -4.35 -2.78 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 17 – 7 5.10 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 25 – 3 2.00 TRUE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Biarritz Dec 05 39 – 11 14.60 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive Dec 05 41 – 0 13.20 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 05 30 – 6 13.20 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 16 – 16 4.40 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Dec 06 25 – 20 -1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Montpellier Dec 27 Montpellier -0.70
2 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 Clermont Auvergne -1.30
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 La Rochelle 8.70
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Dec 27 Racing-Metro 92 13.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 Stade Toulousain 14.70
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 Bordeaux-Begles -1.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Dec 27 USA Perpignan 1.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.23 7.35 -2.10
Saracens 2.39 -5.00 7.40
Wasps 2.08 5.66 -3.60
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Harlequins 0.66 -1.08 1.70
Leicester Tigers 0.59 -6.14 6.70
Northampton Saints 0.02 -2.48 2.50
Gloucester -0.31 -1.02 0.70
Bristol -2.94 1.28 -4.20
Bath -3.94 2.14 -6.10
Newcastle Falcons -4.01 -3.52 -0.50
London Irish -4.27 -8.05 3.80
Worcester Warriors -9.09 -5.71 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 05 18 – 15 8.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Dec 05 27 – 10 5.90 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 05 16 – 14 4.90 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 05 43 – 21 2.20 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Dec 05 40 – 19 6.90 TRUE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Dec 05 32 – 31 -7.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Dec 27 Bath 0.90
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 Bristol 1.00
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Dec 27 Harlequins 5.10
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 27 Sale Sharks -1.50
5 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 Saracens 16.00
6 Wasps vs. London Irish Dec 27 Wasps 10.80

 

November 30, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.72 14.79 -0.10
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 7.83 7.41 0.40
Connacht 3.83 1.72 2.10
Edinburgh 3.03 2.90 0.10
Bulls 2.61 3.65 -1.00
Glasgow 2.60 3.69 -1.10
Stormers 1.57 0.00 1.60
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Ospreys 0.03 0.94 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -3.08 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.31 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -5.75 -6.92 1.20
Zebre -15.68 -13.47 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 27 46 – 18 8.30 TRUE
2 Benetton vs. Glasgow Nov 27 19 – 18 -0.70 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 28 14 – 30 -0.70 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Nov 28 10 – 20 14.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Dec 04 Edinburgh 13.80
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 04 Leinster 15.90
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 04 Sharks 2.70
4 Ospreys vs. Ulster Dec 05 Ulster -1.30
5 Glasgow vs. Dragons Dec 05 Glasgow 14.90
6 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 05 Stormers 9.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.60 6.83 1.80
La Rochelle 8.00 6.78 1.20
Bordeaux-Begles 7.15 5.42 1.70
Racing-Metro 92 4.65 6.13 -1.50
Lyon Rugby 4.62 4.15 0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.40 5.09 -0.70
Montpellier 2.69 -0.01 2.70
Castres Olympique 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.21 1.20 -1.40
RC Toulonnais -0.41 1.82 -2.20
Brive -2.11 -3.19 1.10
Section Paloise -2.56 -2.25 -0.30
Biarritz -3.68 -2.78 -0.90
USA Perpignan -3.97 -2.78 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 17 – 14 3.00 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 36 – 8 16.30 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 28 25 – 24 9.90 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 14 – 37 5.70 FALSE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Nov 28 18 – 11 18.00 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 28 19 – 13 1.00 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 26 – 24 -2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 Bordeaux-Begles 5.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 Castres Olympique 2.00
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Biarritz Dec 05 Clermont Auvergne 14.60
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive Dec 05 Lyon Rugby 13.20
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 05 Montpellier 13.20
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 Section Paloise 4.40
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Dec 06 La Rochelle -1.70

 

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