NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Storm | 16.37 | 19.20 | -2.80 |
Rabbitohs | 14.35 | 15.81 | -1.50 |
Panthers | 14.01 | 14.26 | -0.30 |
Sea Eagles | 7.58 | 10.99 | -3.40 |
Eels | 3.59 | 2.54 | 1.10 |
Roosters | 2.24 | 2.23 | 0.00 |
Sharks | 0.25 | -1.10 | 1.40 |
Titans | 0.05 | 1.05 | -1.00 |
Raiders | -2.43 | -1.10 | -1.30 |
Knights | -3.91 | -6.54 | 2.60 |
Dragons | -7.36 | -7.99 | 0.60 |
Warriors | -8.47 | -8.99 | 0.50 |
Broncos | -8.62 | -8.90 | 0.30 |
Cowboys | -9.01 | -12.27 | 3.30 |
Bulldogs | -9.25 | -10.25 | 1.00 |
Wests Tigers | -11.40 | -10.94 | -0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Mar 24 | 12 – 36 | -2.00 | TRUE |
2 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Mar 25 | 12 – 16 | 3.80 | FALSE |
3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Mar 25 | 28 – 16 | 15.70 | TRUE |
4 | Panthers vs. Knights | Mar 26 | 38 – 20 | 21.50 | TRUE |
5 | Storm vs. Eels | Mar 26 | 24 – 28 | 18.40 | FALSE |
6 | Raiders vs. Titans | Mar 26 | 24 – 22 | 0.20 | TRUE |
7 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Mar 27 | 12 – 38 | 7.10 | FALSE |
8 | Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs | Mar 27 | 13 – 12 | 22.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 31 | Titans | 14.50 |
2 | Sharks vs. Knights | Apr 01 | Sharks | 7.20 |
3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 01 | Panthers | 2.70 |
4 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Apr 02 | Warriors | 5.70 |
5 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | Apr 02 | Sea Eagles | 13.00 |
6 | Cowboys vs. Roosters | Apr 02 | Roosters | -8.20 |
7 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Apr 03 | Storm | 28.60 |
8 | Eels vs. Dragons | Apr 03 | Eels | 14.00 |