Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

February 2, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.83 6.83 1.00
La Rochelle 7.48 6.78 0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 6.87 5.42 1.50
Lyon Rugby 5.26 4.15 1.10
Racing-Metro 92 4.76 6.13 -1.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 5.09 -0.60
Montpellier 4.11 -0.01 4.10
Castres Olympique 0.92 0.94 -0.00
RC Toulonnais 0.05 1.82 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.10 1.20 -1.30
Section Paloise -2.19 -2.25 0.10
Brive -2.94 -3.19 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.09 -2.78 -1.30
Biarritz -5.05 -2.78 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 23 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Biarritz Jan 30 33 – 10 7.60 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Jan 30 23 – 29 11.00 FALSE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 15 – 20 10.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 30 23 – 28 -2.60 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 31 28 – 20 -1.00 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 26 – 24 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 06 Stade Toulousain -5.40
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 06 Lyon Rugby 11.90
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Feb 06 Montpellier 12.80
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Feb 06 Racing-Metro 92 14.20
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 06 RC Toulonnais 5.60
6 Biarritz vs. La Rochelle Feb 07 La Rochelle -6.00
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 07 Clermont Auvergne 4.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.27 7.35 -3.10
Saracens 3.60 -5.00 8.60
Wasps 1.80 5.66 -3.90
Leicester Tigers 1.69 -6.14 7.80
Sale Sharks 1.66 4.96 -3.30
Gloucester 1.28 -1.02 2.30
Harlequins 1.26 -1.08 2.30
Northampton Saints 0.62 -2.48 3.10
Bristol -1.85 1.28 -3.10
London Irish -3.56 -8.05 4.50
Bath -4.99 2.14 -7.10
Newcastle Falcons -7.24 -3.52 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -10.15 -5.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Jan 29 21 – 17 -2.50 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 30 18 – 14 -4.30 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 30 22 – 32 -3.20 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Jan 30 13 – 29 -5.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 31 35 – 26 3.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Jan 31 26 – 20 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 06 Bristol 9.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Feb 06 Exeter Chiefs 7.00
3 Gloucester vs. London Irish Feb 06 Gloucester 9.30
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 06 Harlequins 4.10
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 06 Leicester Tigers 16.30
6 Saracens vs. Bath Feb 06 Saracens 13.10

 

January 24, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.22 10.69 -0.50
Ulster 7.47 7.41 0.10
Edinburgh 3.77 2.90 0.90
Connacht 3.60 1.72 1.90
Glasgow 3.55 3.69 -0.10
Sharks 1.63 -0.07 1.70
Bulls 1.38 3.65 -2.30
Stormers 0.89 0.00 0.90
Ospreys 0.07 0.94 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.61 -0.11 -1.50
Scarlets -1.72 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -2.47 -3.91 1.40
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Sharks Jan 23 37 – 47 2.20 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Stormers Jan 23 26 – 30 6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Benetton Jan 29 Dragons 3.80
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Jan 29 Ulster 15.70
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Jan 30 Leinster -10.50
4 Connacht vs. Glasgow Jan 30 Connacht 6.50
5 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Jan 30 Ospreys 2.80
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Jan 30 Sharks 5.70
7 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 30 Lions 1.10
8 Zebre vs. Munster Jan 30 Munster -20.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.32 7.25 2.10
Sharks 3.07 4.13 -1.10
Western Province 0.56 1.42 -0.90
Pumas -0.83 -3.31 2.50
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.70 0.40
Griquas -4.25 -4.92 0.70
Lions -5.56 -1.88 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jan 20 9 – 50 6.10 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 20 24 – 23 13.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Jan 20 21 – 40 -1.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Feb 03 Griquas 1.10
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Feb 03 Bulls 16.10
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Feb 03 Sharks 7.00

 

January 18, 2022

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.95 7.25 0.70
Sharks 4.13 4.13 -0.00
Western Province 1.93 1.42 0.50
Cheetahs -2.30 -2.70 0.40
Lions -2.39 -1.88 -0.50
Pumas -4.01 -3.31 -0.70
Griquas -5.31 -4.92 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 15 19 – 33 -6.10 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jan 15 30 – 20 6.70 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jan 16 48 – 36 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Jan 20 Lions 6.10
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 20 Sharks 13.90
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Jan 20 Bulls -1.50

 

January 13, 2022

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.25 7.25 -0.00
Sharks 4.13 4.13 -0.00
Western Province 1.42 1.42 -0.00
Lions -1.88 -1.88 0.00
Cheetahs -2.70 -2.70 -0.00
Pumas -3.31 -3.31 -0.00
Griquas -4.92 -4.92 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Jan 15 Bulls -6.10
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Jan 15 Cheetahs 6.70
3 Western Province vs. Lions Jan 16 Western Province 7.80

 

January 11, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.22 10.69 -0.50
Ulster 7.47 7.41 0.10
Edinburgh 3.77 2.90 0.90
Connacht 3.60 1.72 1.90
Glasgow 3.55 3.69 -0.10
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Ospreys 0.07 0.94 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.61 -0.11 -1.50
Scarlets -1.72 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 09 34 – 10 10.40 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Jan 09 38 – 19 8.80 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Ulster Jan 09 18 – 13 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Jan 23 Lions 2.20
2 Bulls vs. Stormers Jan 23 Bulls 6.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 8.04 6.78 1.30
Bordeaux-Begles 6.84 5.42 1.40
Lyon Rugby 5.14 4.15 1.00
Clermont Auvergne 4.90 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.24 6.13 -1.90
Montpellier 3.55 -0.01 3.60
Castres Olympique 0.95 0.94 0.00
Stade Francais Paris 0.15 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.64 -2.25 -0.40
Brive -3.45 -3.19 -0.30
USA Perpignan -3.97 -2.78 -1.20
Biarritz -4.54 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. USA Perpignan Jan 09 23 – 25 6.80 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 09 19 – 22 -3.90 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 15 – 9 7.40 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 09 35 – 10 13.50 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 33 – 28 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 Bordeaux-Begles 12.40
2 Brive vs. Biarritz Jan 30 Brive 7.60
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Jan 30 La Rochelle 11.00
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 Stade Toulousain 10.60
5 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 30 Lyon Rugby -2.60
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 31 Clermont Auvergne -1.00
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 Stade Francais Paris 6.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.76 7.35 -2.60
Saracens 3.91 -5.00 8.90
Leicester Tigers 2.01 -6.14 8.10
Harlequins 1.65 -1.08 2.70
Wasps 1.49 5.66 -4.20
Sale Sharks 1.33 4.96 -3.60
Gloucester 0.87 -1.02 1.90
Northampton Saints 0.01 -2.48 2.50
Bristol -1.85 1.28 -3.10
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.38 2.14 -7.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.83 -3.52 -3.30
Worcester Warriors -9.54 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 08 32 – 15 -0.50 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 09 14 – 12 1.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Jan 09 8 – 44 1.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Jan 09 24 – 25 8.60 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 10 22 – 19 9.40 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 16 – 13 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Jan 29 Harlequins -2.50
2 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 30 Exeter Chiefs -4.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 30 Gloucester -3.20
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Jan 30 Northampton Saints -5.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 31 Sale Sharks 3.80
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Jan 31 Wasps 2.10

 

January 4, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 10.52 10.69 -0.20
Ulster 7.17 7.41 -0.20
Connacht 3.60 1.72 1.90
Edinburgh 3.04 2.90 0.10
Glasgow 2.98 3.69 -0.70
Bulls 1.98 3.65 -1.70
Sharks 0.97 -0.07 1.00
Ospreys 0.65 0.94 -0.30
Stormers 0.29 0.00 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.72 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -1.80 -3.91 2.10
Benetton -3.39 -4.50 1.10
Dragons -6.12 -6.92 0.80
Zebre -16.61 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 51 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 02 10 – 8 -2.80 FALSE
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Jan 02 22 – 19 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 09 Edinburgh 10.40
2 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Jan 09 Glasgow 8.80
3 Munster vs. Ulster Jan 09 Munster 8.30
4 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 09 Scarlets 9.40

 

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