Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

April 12, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

For a second week all the result predictions have been correct which seems to have generated a lot of interest and some comments.

Please be aware this is a rare event. I have been predicting Super Rugby and NRL for 10 years and getting all results correct is rare enough but never before have I had all results correct two weeks in a row. For me it is simply an example of a fact about rare events. Even if the probability of an outcome is low, if you repeat the action many times it is likely that the outcome will occur.

Regarding the correctness of my predictions, all I will say is that over the course of a season, it is likely that I will get a bit over 70% of correct results. That is what I have observed over a number of years for different competitions but that can vary a lot as well. For many years I was unable to get to 70% correct predictions for the NRL. Currently my predictions for the Rugby Premiership are only 54% correct.

My purpose in posting these predictions has been to illustrate the efficacy of a very simple statistical method of forecasting.  The predictions are also an illustration of what can happen with random events. It can appear that there is a consistent pattern which can be exploited even over what seems to be a considerable time. Never believe that you can beat randomness: it will come back to bite you.

Against my usual practice I won’t publish or comment on all submitted comments this week.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.05 19.20 -2.20
Panthers 14.57 14.26 0.30
Rabbitohs 12.83 15.81 -3.00
Sea Eagles 8.94 10.99 -2.10
Eels 5.06 2.54 2.50
Roosters 2.77 2.23 0.50
Sharks 1.65 -1.10 2.80
Titans -1.00 1.05 -2.00
Raiders -2.65 -1.10 -1.50
Knights -5.47 -6.54 1.10
Dragons -7.73 -7.99 0.30
Warriors -8.45 -8.99 0.50
Broncos -8.74 -8.90 0.20
Cowboys -9.44 -12.27 2.80
Bulldogs -10.03 -10.25 0.20
Wests Tigers -11.34 -10.94 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 07 6 – 30 -9.60 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 08 25 – 24 7.50 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 08 20 – 24 -9.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 09 16 – 30 -17.20 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Apr 09 24 – 12 25.20 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Eels Apr 09 20 – 26 -2.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 30 – 4 14.60 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Apr 10 12 – 32 -21.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Cowboys Apr 14 Raiders 9.80
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Apr 15 Rabbitohs 22.90
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Apr 15 Panthers 26.30
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 16 Sea Eagles 12.90
5 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 16 Storm 18.40
6 Roosters vs. Warriors Apr 17 Roosters 16.70
7 Dragons vs. Knights Apr 17 Dragons 0.70
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 18 Eels 19.40

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 23

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Team Ratings for Week 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.18 14.79 2.40
Munster 10.28 10.69 -0.40
Ulster 8.54 7.41 1.10
Bulls 6.71 3.65 3.10
Stormers 5.45 0.00 5.40
Edinburgh 5.05 2.90 2.20
Sharks 4.84 -0.07 4.90
Glasgow 3.38 3.69 -0.30
Scarlets 0.29 -0.77 1.10
Connacht -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Lions -1.45 -3.91 2.50
Ospreys -2.22 0.94 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -0.11 -5.60
Benetton -6.38 -4.50 -1.90
Dragons -10.62 -6.92 -3.70
Zebre -18.76 -13.47 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 10 19 – 17 4.10 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 10 37 – 10 9.50 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Apr 10 14 – 49 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Dragons Apr 17 Scarlets 15.90

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

I will post predictions for this weekend’s game after the postponed game is played tonight.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.99 13.43 0.60
Blues 10.75 9.26 1.50
Chiefs 7.21 5.56 1.60
Hurricanes 6.46 8.28 -1.80
Highlanders 5.01 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -4.50 -4.96 0.50
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.33 -5.79 -1.50
Moana Pasifika -10.35 -10.00 -0.30
Fijian Drua -13.45 -10.00 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 08 37 – 17 21.00 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 08 21 – 24 -1.80 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Rebels Apr 08 21 – 22 9.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 09 0 – 25 4.80 FALSE
5 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Apr 09 12 – 33 -10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 Hurricanes 22.30

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.91 7.25 2.70
Cheetahs 5.03 -2.70 7.70
Sharks 3.88 4.13 -0.30
Pumas -0.32 -3.31 3.00
Western Province -1.86 1.42 -3.30
Griquas -3.10 -4.92 1.80
Lions -13.54 -1.88 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Lions Apr 07 45 – 10 14.60 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Apr 07 6 – 13 -1.40 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Western Province Apr 07 45 – 34 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Apr 16 Griquas -5.90
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Apr 16 Cheetahs -2.40
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 17 Bulls -1.50

 

April 5, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 17.31 19.20 -1.90
Panthers 14.72 14.26 0.50
Rabbitohs 13.64 15.81 -2.20
Sea Eagles 8.06 10.99 -2.90
Eels 4.78 2.54 2.20
Roosters 3.20 2.23 1.00
Sharks 0.93 -1.10 2.00
Titans -0.72 1.05 -1.80
Raiders -2.91 -1.10 -1.80
Knights -4.59 -6.54 2.00
Warriors -7.93 -8.99 1.10
Dragons -8.55 -7.99 -0.60
Broncos -9.16 -8.90 -0.30
Cowboys -9.96 -12.27 2.30
Bulldogs -10.19 -10.25 0.10
Wests Tigers -10.62 -10.94 0.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 31 8 – 6 14.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 01 18 – 0 7.20 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Apr 01 26 – 12 2.70 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Broncos Apr 02 20 – 6 5.70 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 02 25 – 6 13.00 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Roosters Apr 02 4 – 28 -8.20 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 03 44 – 0 28.60 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 03 48 – 14 14.00 TRUE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Apr 07 Sea Eagles -9.60
2 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 08 Warriors 7.50
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 08 Roosters -9.40
4 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 09 Storm -17.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Apr 09 Rabbitohs 25.20
6 Titans vs. Eels Apr 09 Eels -2.50
7 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Apr 10 Sharks 14.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Apr 10 Panthers -21.90
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 22

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Team Ratings for Week 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.18 14.79 2.40
Munster 10.28 10.69 -0.40
Ulster 8.54 7.41 1.10
Bulls 6.52 3.65 2.90
Stormers 5.64 0.00 5.60
Edinburgh 5.05 2.90 2.20
Sharks 3.95 -0.07 4.00
Glasgow 3.38 3.69 -0.30
Connacht -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Lions -0.57 -3.91 3.30
Scarlets -1.33 -0.77 -0.60
Ospreys -2.22 0.94 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -4.07 -0.11 -4.00
Benetton -6.38 -4.50 -1.90
Dragons -10.62 -6.92 -3.70
Zebre -18.76 -13.47 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Apr 02 51 – 3 18.40 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Zebre Apr 02 40 – 12 28.80 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Connacht Apr 03 17 – 21 1.70 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Apr 03 34 – 16 2.90 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Edinburgh Apr 03 15 – 9 -0.20 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 03 29 – 13 14.00 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Leinster Apr 03 19 – 34 -0.40 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 03 35 – 20 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 10 Stormers 4.10
2 Sharks vs. Lions Apr 10 Sharks 9.50
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Apr 10 Cardiff Rugby 2.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.27 6.78 0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 6.05 5.42 0.60
Stade Toulousain 5.93 6.83 -0.90
Racing-Metro 92 5.57 6.13 -0.60
Clermont Auvergne 5.45 5.09 0.40
Montpellier 3.85 -0.01 3.90
Lyon Rugby 3.70 4.15 -0.50
RC Toulonnais 3.35 1.82 1.50
Castres Olympique 1.19 0.94 0.20
Stade Francais Paris 0.21 1.20 -1.00
Section Paloise -0.67 -2.25 1.60
Brive -3.62 -3.19 -0.40
USA Perpignan -3.65 -2.78 -0.90
Biarritz -7.26 -2.78 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Section Paloise Apr 03 19 – 42 1.40 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. La Rochelle Apr 03 15 – 16 6.00 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 03 19 – 13 1.30 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive Apr 03 41 – 10 14.50 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. RC Toulonnais Apr 03 10 – 43 9.30 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Apr 03 13 – 23 -0.00 TRUE
7 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Apr 04 53 – 20 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Apr 24 Lyon Rugby -0.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 24 Castres Olympique 2.20
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Apr 24 La Rochelle 17.40
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Biarritz Apr 24 Racing-Metro 92 19.30
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 24 Stade Francais Paris 7.40
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 24 RC Toulonnais 3.90
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Apr 25 Montpellier 4.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 13.89 13.43 0.50
Blues 9.32 9.26 0.10
Chiefs 8.64 5.56 3.10
Hurricanes 6.56 8.28 -1.70
Highlanders 5.09 6.54 -1.50
Brumbies 3.22 3.61 -0.40
Reds 2.42 1.37 1.00
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -5.73 -9.00 3.30
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.43 -10.00 -0.40
Fijian Drua -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 01 17 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 01 14 – 38 0.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 02 46 – 16 24.30 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 02 21 – 7 3.50 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 03 29 – 30 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 08 Highlanders 21.00
2 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 08 Crusaders -1.80
3 Western Force vs. Rebels Apr 08 Western Force 9.50
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 09 Chiefs 4.80
5 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Apr 09 Brumbies -10.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 4.93 -5.00 9.90
Leicester Tigers 3.93 -6.14 10.10
Exeter Chiefs 3.15 7.35 -4.20
Harlequins 2.44 -1.08 3.50
Sale Sharks 1.73 4.96 -3.20
Northampton Saints 1.55 -2.48 4.00
Wasps 1.39 5.66 -4.30
Gloucester 0.72 -1.02 1.70
Bristol -3.14 1.28 -4.40
London Irish -4.08 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.95 2.14 -8.10
Newcastle Falcons -5.95 -3.52 -2.40
Worcester Warriors -12.31 -5.71 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 129 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 02 12 – 18 2.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 03 42 – 22 12.70 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Wasps Apr 03 21 – 27 5.10 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 03 39 – 22 8.20 TRUE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 03 10 – 45 1.50 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Harlequins Apr 04 14 – 41 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Apr 23 Bristol 0.60
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Apr 23 Newcastle Falcons 2.60
3 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Apr 24 Northampton Saints -3.00
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 24 Harlequins 3.00
5 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors Apr 24 Wasps 18.20
6 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 25 Saracens 6.30

 

March 29, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

I forgot about the time difference between New Zealand and Australia so that the postponed game has already finished. So here are the predictions for the weekend.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.59 13.43 1.20
Blues 8.87 9.26 -0.40
Chiefs 8.22 5.56 2.70
Hurricanes 6.98 8.28 -1.30
Highlanders 4.40 6.54 -2.10
Brumbies 3.81 3.61 0.20
Reds 1.83 1.37 0.50
Western Force -3.91 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -6.95 -9.00 2.00
Rebels -7.92 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -9.98 -10.00 0.00
Fijian Drua -11.63 -10.00 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 29 19 – 32 -20.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 01 Crusaders 15.70
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 01 Fijian Drua 0.80
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 02 Blues 24.30
4 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 02 Reds 3.50
5 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 03 Hurricanes 4.30

 

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