Posts filed under Sports statistics (1531)

August 10, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.86 4.50 1.40
Hawke’s Bay 5.73 5.87 -0.10
Tasman 5.45 5.94 -0.50
Canterbury 3.64 2.00 1.60
Wellington 3.18 3.58 -0.40
Taranaki 2.88 3.63 -0.80
Waikato 2.14 2.00 0.10
North Harbour 1.78 2.31 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 0.50 0.10 0.40
Otago -1.95 -1.63 -0.30
Northland -5.92 -6.68 0.80
Counties Manukau -6.00 -6.32 0.30
Southland -6.52 -7.01 0.50
Manawatu -8.44 -5.97 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 10 18 – 45 -10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Aug 12 Hawke’s Bay 14.20
2 Otago vs. Tasman Aug 13 Tasman -4.90
3 Northland vs. Waikato Aug 13 Waikato -5.60
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 13 Canterbury 3.00
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 0.10
6 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 14 Auckland -9.90
7 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Aug 14 North Harbour 12.70

 

August 9, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.80 14.26 -1.50
Storm 10.75 19.20 -8.50
Rabbitohs 7.23 15.81 -8.60
Roosters 4.04 2.23 1.80
Cowboys 3.86 -12.27 16.10
Sharks 3.05 -1.10 4.20
Eels 2.60 2.54 0.10
Sea Eagles 0.17 10.99 -10.80
Raiders -1.56 -1.10 -0.50
Broncos -1.60 -8.90 7.30
Dragons -3.94 -7.99 4.10
Bulldogs -5.68 -10.25 4.60
Titans -7.46 1.05 -8.50
Knights -7.63 -6.54 -1.10
Wests Tigers -8.32 -10.94 2.60
Warriors -10.30 -8.99 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 04 34 – 16 7.30 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 05 32 – 14 21.80 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 05 20 – 36 2.80 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 06 48 – 10 21.00 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 06 6 – 26 -10.10 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 06 24 – 18 10.70 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 07 14 – 28 -5.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 07 10 – 14 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 11 Panthers 5.10
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 12 Warriors 0.90
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 12 Rabbitohs -1.60
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 13 Roosters 3.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 13 Sharks -11.40
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 13 Broncos 9.00
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 14 Raiders 5.40
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 14 Sea Eagles -4.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Because of the unusual scheduling of games in the NPC, I will be giving a forecast for the Wednesday game on a Tuesday and forecasts for the weekend games after the Wednesday game.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 5.73 5.87 -0.10
Tasman 5.45 5.94 -0.50
Auckland 5.03 4.50 0.50
Canterbury 3.64 2.00 1.60
Wellington 3.18 3.58 -0.40
Taranaki 2.88 3.63 -0.80
Waikato 2.14 2.00 0.10
North Harbour 1.78 2.31 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 0.50 0.10 0.40
Otago -1.95 -1.63 -0.30
Northland -5.92 -6.68 0.80
Counties Manukau -6.00 -6.32 0.30
Southland -6.52 -7.01 0.50
Manawatu -7.61 -5.97 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Aug 05 15 – 62 -5.50 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 06 23 – 22 -2.20 FALSE
3 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 06 32 – 32 -1.40 FALSE
4 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 06 36 – 26 4.70 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 07 11 – 13 12.80 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 07 27 – 20 15.50 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 07 37 – 35 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 10 Auckland -10.10

 

August 4, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 5.94 5.94 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.87 5.87 0.00
Auckland 4.50 4.50 0.00
Taranaki 3.63 3.63 -0.00
Wellington 3.58 3.58 0.00
North Harbour 2.31 2.31 -0.00
Canterbury 2.00 2.00 -0.00
Waikato 2.00 2.00 0.00
Bay of Plenty 0.10 0.10 0.00
Otago -1.63 -1.63 0.00
Manawatu -5.97 -5.97 0.00
Counties Manukau -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Northland -6.68 -6.68 -0.00
Southland -7.01 -7.01 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Aug 05 Canterbury -5.50
2 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 06 Otago -2.20
3 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 06 Hawke’s Bay -1.40
4 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 06 Auckland 4.70
5 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 07 Taranaki 12.80
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 07 Tasman 15.50
7 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 07 Wellington 6.00
8 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 10 Auckland -8.00

 

August 2, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.17 14.26 -2.10
Storm 11.06 19.20 -8.10
Rabbitohs 6.21 15.81 -9.60
Sharks 3.42 -1.10 4.50
Roosters 3.36 2.23 1.10
Cowboys 3.31 -12.27 15.60
Eels 1.48 2.54 -1.10
Sea Eagles 1.29 10.99 -9.70
Broncos -0.93 -8.90 8.00
Raiders -0.93 -1.10 0.20
Dragons -4.32 -7.99 3.70
Bulldogs -5.13 -10.25 5.10
Wests Tigers -7.72 -10.94 3.20
Titans -7.76 1.05 -8.80
Knights -8.23 -6.54 -1.70
Warriors -9.27 -8.99 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 28 10 – 20 2.50 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 29 12 – 24 -15.40 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 29 34 – 10 -11.70 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 30 24 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 21 – 20 0.10 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 18 – 32 12.90 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 10 – 24 1.80 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 31 8 – 34 -1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 04 Roosters 7.30
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 05 Storm 21.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 05 Sea Eagles 2.80
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 06 Rabbitohs 21.00
5 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 06 Panthers -10.10
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 06 Sharks 10.70
7 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 07 Cowboys -5.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 07 Wests Tigers 3.50

 

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July 26, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.17 14.26 -0.10
Storm 11.32 19.20 -7.90
Rabbitohs 6.28 15.81 -9.50
Sharks 3.35 -1.10 4.50
Roosters 2.59 2.23 0.40
Sea Eagles 2.07 10.99 -8.90
Cowboys 1.90 -12.27 14.20
Broncos 0.62 -8.90 9.50
Eels -0.52 2.54 -3.10
Raiders -1.53 -1.10 -0.40
Dragons -2.91 -7.99 5.10
Bulldogs -6.09 -10.25 4.20
Titans -7.16 1.05 -8.20
Knights -7.27 -6.54 -0.70
Wests Tigers -9.27 -10.94 1.70
Warriors -9.54 -8.99 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Broncos Jul 21 14 – 36 5.00 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 22 20 – 6 -4.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 22 12 – 42 -3.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 26 – 14 13.80 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 23 20 – 10 14.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jul 23 24 – 12 -4.00 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jul 24 36 – 26 2.90 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 27 – 26 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 28 Sea Eagles 2.50
2 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 29 Storm -15.40
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 29 Panthers -11.70
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 30 Raiders -2.60
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 Sharks 0.10
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 Broncos 12.90
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Knights 1.80
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 31 Cowboys -1.80

 

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July 19, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.25 14.26 1.00
Storm 11.64 19.20 -7.60
Sea Eagles 6.52 10.99 -4.50
Rabbitohs 6.30 15.81 -9.50
Roosters 3.96 2.23 1.70
Sharks 3.85 -1.10 5.00
Cowboys 1.96 -12.27 14.20
Eels 0.71 2.54 -1.80
Broncos 0.02 -8.90 8.90
Raiders -0.73 -1.10 0.40
Dragons -6.88 -7.99 1.10
Titans -7.55 1.05 -8.60
Bulldogs -7.64 -10.25 2.60
Knights -9.13 -6.54 -2.60
Warriors -9.37 -8.99 -0.40
Wests Tigers -10.90 -10.94 0.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jul 15 12 – 26 3.20 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 15 28 – 18 16.60 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 16 54 – 26 11.90 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 16 42 – 12 17.00 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 16 12 – 16 -4.70 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 17 16 – 18 -25.90 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 17 16 – 20 18.00 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 17 28 – 36 -11.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Broncos Jul 21 Eels 3.70
2 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 22 Sea Eagles -10.40
3 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 22 Roosters -10.10
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 Raiders 14.10
5 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 23 Panthers 14.40
6 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jul 23 Storm -2.30
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jul 24 Bulldogs 2.90
8 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 Cowboys 15.90
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July 12, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 16.64 14.26 2.40
Storm 12.93 19.20 -6.30
Rabbitohs 6.58 15.81 -9.20
Sea Eagles 5.71 10.99 -5.30
Cowboys 2.99 -12.27 15.30
Roosters 2.98 2.23 0.70
Sharks 2.81 -1.10 3.90
Eels 1.24 2.54 -1.30
Broncos 0.08 -8.90 9.00
Raiders -2.02 -1.10 -0.90
Dragons -5.90 -7.99 2.10
Titans -7.60 1.05 -8.60
Bulldogs -7.92 -10.25 2.30
Knights -8.32 -6.54 -1.80
Warriors -9.90 -8.99 -0.90
Wests Tigers -12.29 -10.94 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 90 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jul 07 28 – 6 -10.80 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Jul 08 28 – 40 -11.90 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 09 20 – 28 -11.00 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Jul 10 32 – 18 8.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jul 15 Cowboys 3.20
2 Eels vs. Warriors Jul 15 Eels 16.60
3 Roosters vs. Dragons Jul 16 Roosters 11.90
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jul 16 Sea Eagles 17.00
5 Titans vs. Broncos Jul 16 Broncos -4.70
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jul 17 Panthers -25.90
7 Storm vs. Raiders Jul 17 Storm 18.00
8 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Jul 17 Rabbitohs -11.50

 

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July 5, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 16.64 14.26 2.40
Storm 14.78 19.20 -4.40
Rabbitohs 6.57 15.81 -9.20
Sea Eagles 5.71 10.99 -5.30
Cowboys 2.99 -12.27 15.30
Roosters 2.98 2.23 0.70
Eels 1.48 2.54 -1.10
Sharks 0.96 -1.10 2.10
Broncos -0.40 -8.90 8.50
Raiders -2.02 -1.10 -0.90
Dragons -5.42 -7.99 2.60
Titans -7.60 1.05 -8.60
Bulldogs -7.92 -10.25 2.30
Knights -8.31 -6.54 -1.80
Warriors -9.90 -8.99 -0.90
Wests Tigers -12.53 -10.94 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 30 36 – 30 -7.80 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Titans Jul 01 38 – 12 -0.80 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 01 26 – 18 17.90 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 02 6 – 18 -4.70 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 02 40 – 26 5.30 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 02 30 – 12 6.70 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 03 22 – 2 6.50 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 03 12 – 10 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jul 07 Storm -10.80
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Jul 08 Rabbitohs -11.90
3 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 09 Eels -11.00
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Jul 10 Broncos 8.00

 

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June 21, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 17.27 14.26 3.00
Storm 15.63 19.20 -3.60
Rabbitohs 5.86 15.81 -10.00
Sea Eagles 4.87 10.99 -6.10
Cowboys 2.43 -12.27 14.70
Roosters 2.35 2.23 0.10
Eels 2.20 2.54 -0.30
Sharks 0.38 -1.10 1.50
Broncos 0.16 -8.90 9.10
Raiders -1.79 -1.10 -0.70
Dragons -5.65 -7.99 2.30
Titans -6.06 1.05 -7.10
Bulldogs -7.34 -10.25 2.90
Knights -9.86 -6.54 -3.30
Warriors -10.73 -8.99 -1.70
Wests Tigers -11.70 -10.94 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jun 16 32 – 12 -12.10 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 17 26 – 28 6.50 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Broncos Jun 17 32 – 20 19.70 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Jun 18 18 – 10 9.70 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 18 6 – 40 -20.90 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 18 26 – 16 1.80 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Knights Jun 19 20 – 18 12.40 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 36 – 12 5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 30 Storm -7.80
2 Knights vs. Titans Jul 01 Titans -0.80
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 01 Panthers 17.90
4 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 02 Sharks -4.70
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 02 Cowboys 5.30
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 02 Rabbitohs 6.70
7 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 03 Warriors 6.50
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 03 Raiders -0.90

 

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