Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

August 23, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 5.25 5.87 -0.60
Auckland 4.79 4.50 0.30
Canterbury 4.49 2.00 2.50
Tasman 4.41 5.94 -1.50
North Harbour 3.72 2.31 1.40
Waikato 2.70 2.00 0.70
Bay of Plenty 2.64 0.10 2.50
Taranaki 1.73 3.63 -1.90
Wellington 0.97 3.58 -2.60
Otago -0.60 -1.63 1.00
Northland -5.04 -6.68 1.60
Counties Manukau -5.83 -6.32 0.50
Southland -6.24 -7.01 0.80
Manawatu -10.67 -5.97 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 23 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 20 – 34 -5.00 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 16 – 10 -1.10 FALSE
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 6 – 15 10.40 FALSE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 35 – 27 0.90 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 17 – 21 5.80 FALSE
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 32 – 37 -2.70 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 17 – 43 -12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 26 Tasman 2.40
2 Waikato vs. Manawatu Aug 26 Waikato 15.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 27 Hawke’s Bay 4.00
4 Auckland vs. Otago Aug 27 Auckland 7.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 28 Bay of Plenty 11.00
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 28 Wellington 1.70
7 Northland vs. Southland Aug 28 Northland 3.70

 

August 18, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90
Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90
Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.52 5.87 -1.30
North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00
Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20
Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00
Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30
Otago -0.83 -1.63 0.80
Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00
Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70
Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00
Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 18 – 13 -3.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 19 Waikato -5.00
2 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 20 Canterbury -1.10
3 Wellington vs. Northland Aug 20 Wellington 10.40
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 20 North Harbour 0.90
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 21 Auckland 5.80
6 Southland vs. Otago Aug 21 Otago -2.70
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 21 Hawke’s Bay -12.00

 

August 16, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.99 19.20 -7.20
Panthers 11.56 14.26 -2.70
Rabbitohs 8.65 15.81 -7.20
Roosters 4.72 2.23 2.50
Sharks 3.83 -1.10 4.90
Cowboys 3.18 -12.27 15.40
Eels 1.18 2.54 -1.40
Broncos -1.03 -8.90 7.90
Sea Eagles -1.26 10.99 -12.30
Raiders -1.83 -1.10 -0.70
Dragons -3.67 -7.99 4.30
Titans -6.03 1.05 -7.10
Bulldogs -7.04 -10.25 3.20
Knights -8.21 -6.54 -1.70
Warriors -8.95 -8.99 0.00
Wests Tigers -9.11 -10.94 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 11 0 – 16 5.10 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 12 42 – 18 0.90 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 12 0 – 26 -1.60 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 13 32 – 18 3.20 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 13 12 – 36 -11.40 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 13 28 – 10 9.00 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 14 24 – 22 5.40 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 14 44 – 24 -4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 18 Rabbitohs 0.10
2 Cowboys vs. Warriors Aug 19 Cowboys 17.60
3 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -10.00
4 Eels vs. Bulldogs Aug 20 Eels 11.20
5 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Aug 20 Sharks -2.10
6 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 20 Roosters 16.80
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 21 Dragons 5.40
8 Knights vs. Raiders Aug 21 Raiders -3.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.35 4.50 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 5.04 5.87 -0.80
Canterbury 4.92 2.00 2.90
Tasman 4.85 5.94 -1.10
North Harbour 3.29 2.31 1.00
Waikato 2.18 2.00 0.20
Bay of Plenty 2.08 0.10 2.00
Wellington 1.90 3.58 -1.70
Taranaki 1.29 3.63 -2.30
Otago -1.35 -1.63 0.30
Counties Manukau -5.31 -6.32 1.00
Northland -5.96 -6.68 0.70
Southland -6.00 -7.01 1.00
Manawatu -9.95 -5.97 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Aug 12 33 – 32 14.20 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Tasman Aug 13 25 – 19 -4.90 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Waikato Aug 13 10 – 16 -5.60 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 13 43 – 10 3.00 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 14 46 – 6 0.10 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 14 23 – 24 -9.90 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Aug 14 64 – 14 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 17 Hawke’s Bay -3.90

 

August 10, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Auckland 5.86 4.50 1.40
Hawke’s Bay 5.73 5.87 -0.10
Tasman 5.45 5.94 -0.50
Canterbury 3.64 2.00 1.60
Wellington 3.18 3.58 -0.40
Taranaki 2.88 3.63 -0.80
Waikato 2.14 2.00 0.10
North Harbour 1.78 2.31 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 0.50 0.10 0.40
Otago -1.95 -1.63 -0.30
Northland -5.92 -6.68 0.80
Counties Manukau -6.00 -6.32 0.30
Southland -6.52 -7.01 0.50
Manawatu -8.44 -5.97 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 10 18 – 45 -10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau Aug 12 Hawke’s Bay 14.20
2 Otago vs. Tasman Aug 13 Tasman -4.90
3 Northland vs. Waikato Aug 13 Waikato -5.60
4 Canterbury vs. Wellington Aug 13 Canterbury 3.00
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 0.10
6 Southland vs. Auckland Aug 14 Auckland -9.90
7 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Aug 14 North Harbour 12.70

 

August 9, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.80 14.26 -1.50
Storm 10.75 19.20 -8.50
Rabbitohs 7.23 15.81 -8.60
Roosters 4.04 2.23 1.80
Cowboys 3.86 -12.27 16.10
Sharks 3.05 -1.10 4.20
Eels 2.60 2.54 0.10
Sea Eagles 0.17 10.99 -10.80
Raiders -1.56 -1.10 -0.50
Broncos -1.60 -8.90 7.30
Dragons -3.94 -7.99 4.10
Bulldogs -5.68 -10.25 4.60
Titans -7.46 1.05 -8.50
Knights -7.63 -6.54 -1.10
Wests Tigers -8.32 -10.94 2.60
Warriors -10.30 -8.99 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 108 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 04 34 – 16 7.30 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 05 32 – 14 21.80 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 05 20 – 36 2.80 FALSE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 06 48 – 10 21.00 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 06 6 – 26 -10.10 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 06 24 – 18 10.70 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 07 14 – 28 -5.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 07 10 – 14 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 11 Panthers 5.10
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 12 Warriors 0.90
3 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Aug 12 Rabbitohs -1.60
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys Aug 13 Roosters 3.20
5 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Aug 13 Sharks -11.40
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 13 Broncos 9.00
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Aug 14 Raiders 5.40
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Aug 14 Sea Eagles -4.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Because of the unusual scheduling of games in the NPC, I will be giving a forecast for the Wednesday game on a Tuesday and forecasts for the weekend games after the Wednesday game.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 5.73 5.87 -0.10
Tasman 5.45 5.94 -0.50
Auckland 5.03 4.50 0.50
Canterbury 3.64 2.00 1.60
Wellington 3.18 3.58 -0.40
Taranaki 2.88 3.63 -0.80
Waikato 2.14 2.00 0.10
North Harbour 1.78 2.31 -0.50
Bay of Plenty 0.50 0.10 0.40
Otago -1.95 -1.63 -0.30
Northland -5.92 -6.68 0.80
Counties Manukau -6.00 -6.32 0.30
Southland -6.52 -7.01 0.50
Manawatu -7.61 -5.97 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Aug 05 15 – 62 -5.50 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 06 23 – 22 -2.20 FALSE
3 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 06 32 – 32 -1.40 FALSE
4 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 06 36 – 26 4.70 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 07 11 – 13 12.80 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 07 27 – 20 15.50 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 07 37 – 35 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 10 Auckland -10.10

 

August 4, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 5.94 5.94 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.87 5.87 0.00
Auckland 4.50 4.50 0.00
Taranaki 3.63 3.63 -0.00
Wellington 3.58 3.58 0.00
North Harbour 2.31 2.31 -0.00
Canterbury 2.00 2.00 -0.00
Waikato 2.00 2.00 0.00
Bay of Plenty 0.10 0.10 0.00
Otago -1.63 -1.63 0.00
Manawatu -5.97 -5.97 0.00
Counties Manukau -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Northland -6.68 -6.68 -0.00
Southland -7.01 -7.01 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Aug 05 Canterbury -5.50
2 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Aug 06 Otago -2.20
3 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 06 Hawke’s Bay -1.40
4 Auckland vs. North Harbour Aug 06 Auckland 4.70
5 Taranaki vs. Northland Aug 07 Taranaki 12.80
6 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 07 Tasman 15.50
7 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 07 Wellington 6.00
8 Manawatu vs. Auckland Aug 10 Auckland -8.00

 

August 2, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.17 14.26 -2.10
Storm 11.06 19.20 -8.10
Rabbitohs 6.21 15.81 -9.60
Sharks 3.42 -1.10 4.50
Roosters 3.36 2.23 1.10
Cowboys 3.31 -12.27 15.60
Eels 1.48 2.54 -1.10
Sea Eagles 1.29 10.99 -9.70
Broncos -0.93 -8.90 8.00
Raiders -0.93 -1.10 0.20
Dragons -4.32 -7.99 3.70
Bulldogs -5.13 -10.25 5.10
Wests Tigers -7.72 -10.94 3.20
Titans -7.76 1.05 -8.80
Knights -8.23 -6.54 -1.70
Warriors -9.27 -8.99 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 152 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 28 10 – 20 2.50 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 29 12 – 24 -15.40 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 29 34 – 10 -11.70 FALSE
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 30 24 – 36 -2.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 21 – 20 0.10 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 18 – 32 12.90 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 10 – 24 1.80 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 31 8 – 34 -1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Aug 04 Roosters 7.30
2 Storm vs. Titans Aug 05 Storm 21.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Aug 05 Sea Eagles 2.80
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 06 Rabbitohs 21.00
5 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 06 Panthers -10.10
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Aug 06 Sharks 10.70
7 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Aug 07 Cowboys -5.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Aug 07 Wests Tigers 3.50

 

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July 26, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.17 14.26 -0.10
Storm 11.32 19.20 -7.90
Rabbitohs 6.28 15.81 -9.50
Sharks 3.35 -1.10 4.50
Roosters 2.59 2.23 0.40
Sea Eagles 2.07 10.99 -8.90
Cowboys 1.90 -12.27 14.20
Broncos 0.62 -8.90 9.50
Eels -0.52 2.54 -3.10
Raiders -1.53 -1.10 -0.40
Dragons -2.91 -7.99 5.10
Bulldogs -6.09 -10.25 4.20
Titans -7.16 1.05 -8.20
Knights -7.27 -6.54 -0.70
Wests Tigers -9.27 -10.94 1.70
Warriors -9.54 -8.99 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Broncos Jul 21 14 – 36 5.00 FALSE
2 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 22 20 – 6 -4.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 22 12 – 42 -3.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 23 26 – 14 13.80 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 23 20 – 10 14.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jul 23 24 – 12 -4.00 FALSE
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans Jul 24 36 – 26 2.90 TRUE
8 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Jul 24 27 – 26 16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Jul 28 Sea Eagles 2.50
2 Warriors vs. Storm Jul 29 Storm -15.40
3 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 29 Panthers -11.70
4 Titans vs. Raiders Jul 30 Raiders -2.60
5 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 30 Sharks 0.10
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Jul 30 Broncos 12.90
7 Knights vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Knights 1.80
8 Dragons vs. Cowboys Jul 31 Cowboys -1.80

 

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