Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

January 3, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.29 6.34 1.90
La Rochelle 6.45 6.88 -0.40
Racing 92 4.82 4.86 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.76 5.27 -0.50
Montpellier 4.28 4.18 0.10
Stade Francais 4.27 -1.05 5.30
Toulon 3.90 4.09 -0.20
Clermont 1.70 4.05 -2.40
Castres Olympique 1.67 2.87 -1.20
Lyon 1.05 3.10 -2.10
Aviron Bayonnais -1.49 -4.26 2.80
Section Paloise -1.51 -2.12 0.60
USA Perpignan -5.43 -2.75 -2.70
Brive -5.51 -4.20 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 31 40 – 10 5.50 TRUE
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Toulon Jan 01 23 – 18 0.70 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Jan 01 26 – 26 3.70 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Brive Jan 01 27 – 30 14.20 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Jan 01 37 – 3 10.80 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Jan 01 10 – 29 -4.40 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 13 – 32 1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 08 Bordeaux Begles 12.80
2 Brive vs. Toulon Jan 08 Toulon -2.90
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Jan 08 Clermont 13.60
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 08 La Rochelle 4.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Jan 08 Section Paloise 3.90
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 08 Stade Francais 9.10
7 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Jan 09 Montpellier 6.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.19 4.14 1.10
Leicester Tigers 3.83 7.93 -4.10
Gloucester 2.67 5.92 -3.20
Northampton Saints 2.61 3.99 -1.40
Saracens 2.15 -5.00 7.20
Harlequins 1.81 3.92 -2.10
Exeter Chiefs 0.84 3.67 -2.80
London Irish 0.54 -1.65 2.20
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.19 -2.43 -0.80
Bath -5.68 -9.15 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -7.82 -8.76 0.90
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 31 40 – 5 2.80 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 01 24 – 16 6.40 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. London Irish Jan 01 8 – 6 7.30 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 01 35 – 3 3.00 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 02 46 – 17 2.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Jan 07 Gloucester 5.00
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 08 Leicester Tigers -7.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 08 Exeter Chiefs 2.70
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Jan 09 Harlequins 1.10
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Jan 09 London Irish 8.20

 

December 28, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.36 7.93 -2.60
Sale Sharks 3.66 4.14 -0.50
Harlequins 3.09 3.92 -0.80
Gloucester 3.00 5.92 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 2.24 3.67 -1.40
Northampton Saints 1.32 3.99 -2.70
Saracens 0.75 -5.00 5.80
London Irish 0.21 -1.65 1.90
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.19 -2.43 -0.80
Bath -5.80 -9.15 3.30
Newcastle Falcons -7.69 -8.76 1.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 London Irish vs. Saracens Dec 24 29 – 20 3.30 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 24 20 – 14 -8.40 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Dec 25 20 – 15 13.50 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 25 28 – 13 5.80 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 28 12 – 15 12.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 31 Sale Sharks 2.80
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 01 Bath 6.40
3 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 01 Saracens 3.00
4 Gloucester vs. London Irish Jan 01 Gloucester 7.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 02 Northampton Saints 2.70

 

December 27, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.20 16.79 0.40
Ulster 9.73 9.27 0.50
Bulls 8.20 7.84 0.40
Munster 8.07 9.78 -1.70
Stormers 7.30 7.14 0.20
Sharks 5.23 6.95 -1.70
Edinburgh 3.44 3.58 -0.10
Connacht 1.23 -1.60 2.80
Glasgow 1.04 -0.00 1.00
Lions -1.65 -1.74 0.10
Ospreys -2.00 -0.83 -1.20
Benetton -4.54 -3.68 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.87 -7.42 2.60
Scarlets -5.30 -1.23 -4.10
Dragons -9.52 -11.81 2.30
Zebre -17.52 -16.99 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 37 – 10 9.40 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 37 – 27 2.30 TRUE
3 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 24 20 – 22 -5.10 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 24 16 – 10 0.50 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 25 38 – 5 15.50 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 27 24 – 29 0.40 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 34 – 14 6.00 TRUE
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 19 – 20 -6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 Edinburgh 6.40
2 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 31 Benetton -9.00
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Jan 01 Sharks 1.00
4 Stormers vs. Lions Jan 01 Stormers 12.90
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 Cardiff Rugby 1.10
6 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 Scarlets 8.20
7 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 02 Ulster 5.70
8 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 02 Leinster 20.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.65 6.34 1.30
La Rochelle 5.96 6.88 -0.90
Montpellier 5.04 4.18 0.90
Racing 92 4.64 4.86 -0.20
Toulon 4.11 4.09 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.00 5.27 -1.30
Stade Francais 3.55 -1.05 4.60
Clermont 2.35 4.05 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.86 2.87 -1.00
Lyon 1.61 3.10 -1.50
Section Paloise -0.78 -2.12 1.30
Aviron Bayonnais -1.71 -4.26 2.50
USA Perpignan -4.94 -2.75 -2.20
Brive -6.08 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Lyon Dec 23 21 – 3 8.00 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Clermont Dec 24 20 – 16 -2.60 FALSE
3 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 24 8 – 12 9.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 24 38 – 10 15.60 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 24 22 – 22 8.30 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 22 – 18 13.20 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Dec 25 10 – 48 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 31 Bordeaux Begles 5.50
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Toulon Jan 01 Aviron Bayonnais 0.70
3 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Jan 01 Castres Olympique 3.70
4 Lyon vs. Brive Jan 01 Lyon 14.20
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Jan 01 Stade Francais 10.80
6 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Jan 01 La Rochelle -4.40
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 Clermont 1.20

 

December 6, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.71 16.79 0.90
Ulster 10.04 9.27 0.80
Bulls 8.62 7.84 0.80
Munster 7.56 9.78 -2.20
Stormers 6.88 7.14 -0.30
Sharks 4.49 6.95 -2.50
Edinburgh 3.99 3.58 0.40
Connacht 0.92 -1.60 2.50
Glasgow 0.49 -0.00 0.50
Lions -0.91 -1.74 0.80
Ospreys -2.63 -0.83 -1.80
Scarlets -4.67 -1.23 -3.40
Benetton -5.28 -3.68 -1.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.42 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -8.98 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -16.78 -16.99 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys Dec 03 25 – 10 10.80 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Munster Dec 03 17 – 38 2.80 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Dragons Dec 04 34 – 26 21.60 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Dec 04 17 – 45 -11.30 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Benetton Dec 04 38 – 19 9.70 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 04 45 – 9 17.00 TRUE
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 04 38 – 29 12.30 TRUE
8 Lions vs. Scarlets Dec 05 32 – 15 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 Sharks 9.40
2 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 Stormers 2.30
3 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 24 Ulster -5.10
4 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 24 Glasgow 0.50
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 25 Benetton 15.50
6 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 27 Dragons 0.40
7 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 Ospreys 6.00
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Leinster -6.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.11 6.34 1.80
La Rochelle 6.41 6.88 -0.50
Racing 92 5.99 4.86 1.10
Montpellier 4.61 4.18 0.40
Toulon 3.61 4.09 -0.50
Bordeaux Begles 3.55 5.27 -1.70
Clermont 2.68 4.05 -1.40
Stade Francais 2.20 -1.05 3.30
Lyon 2.11 3.10 -1.00
Castres Olympique 1.40 2.87 -1.50
Section Paloise -0.37 -2.12 1.80
Aviron Bayonnais -2.12 -4.26 2.10
USA Perpignan -4.51 -2.75 -1.80
Brive -6.40 -4.20 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Dec 04 19 – 7 1.50 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Brive Dec 04 33 – 13 16.10 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 04 19 – 14 4.50 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. La Rochelle Dec 04 27 – 14 1.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Dec 04 34 – 13 18.90 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Dec 05 26 – 22 8.70 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Dec 05 14 – 31 5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Lyon Dec 23 Toulon 8.00
2 Brive vs. Clermont Dec 24 Clermont -2.60
3 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 24 La Rochelle 9.40
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 24 Montpellier 15.60
5 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 24 Section Paloise 8.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 Stade Toulousain 13.20
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Dec 25 Racing 92 10.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 4.83 7.93 -3.10
Sale Sharks 4.43 4.14 0.30
Harlequins 3.91 3.92 -0.00
Gloucester 3.52 5.92 -2.40
Exeter Chiefs 2.74 3.67 -0.90
Northampton Saints 1.32 3.99 -2.70
Saracens 1.10 -5.00 6.10
London Irish -0.15 -1.65 1.50
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -4.00 -2.43 -1.60
Bath -6.30 -9.15 2.80
Newcastle Falcons -8.46 -8.76 0.30
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 03 13 – 19 -5.70 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 04 26 – 26 -5.00 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 04 34 – 19 5.60 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 04 39 – 17 11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 London Irish vs. Saracens Dec 24 London Irish 3.30
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 24 Sale Sharks -8.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Dec 25 Exeter Chiefs 13.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 25 Leicester Tigers 5.80
5 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 28 Harlequins 12.40

 

November 29, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.05 16.79 1.30
Ulster 9.71 9.27 0.40
Bulls 7.83 7.84 -0.00
Stormers 7.50 7.14 0.40
Munster 6.64 9.78 -3.10
Edinburgh 4.91 3.58 1.30
Sharks 4.06 6.95 -2.90
Connacht 0.44 -1.60 2.00
Glasgow -0.23 -0.00 -0.20
Lions -1.40 -1.74 0.30
Ospreys -2.21 -0.83 -1.40
Scarlets -4.18 -1.23 -2.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.63 -7.42 2.80
Benetton -4.80 -3.68 -1.10
Dragons -9.60 -11.81 2.20
Zebre -16.06 -16.99 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Scarlets Nov 26 36 – 19 16.00 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 26 36 – 15 31.30 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 24 – 17 -6.40 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Nov 26 43 – 26 13.90 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Glasgow Nov 27 40 – 5 21.50 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Connacht Nov 27 24 – 17 11.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Dragons Nov 28 33 – 25 13.90 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 28 0 – 35 16.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys Dec 03 Sharks 10.80
2 Edinburgh vs. Munster Dec 03 Edinburgh 2.80
3 Stormers vs. Dragons Dec 04 Stormers 21.60
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Dec 04 Glasgow -11.30
5 Connacht vs. Benetton Dec 04 Connacht 9.70
6 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 04 Bulls 17.00
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 04 Leinster 12.30
8 Lions vs. Scarlets Dec 05 Lions 7.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.01 6.34 1.70
La Rochelle 6.81 6.88 -0.10
Racing 92 5.28 4.86 0.40
Montpellier 4.64 4.18 0.50
Toulon 4.32 4.09 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.36 5.27 -1.90
Clermont 2.65 4.05 -1.40
Lyon 2.48 3.10 -0.60
Stade Francais 1.80 -1.05 2.90
Castres Olympique 1.63 2.87 -1.20
Section Paloise -0.61 -2.12 1.50
Aviron Bayonnais -2.49 -4.26 1.80
USA Perpignan -4.41 -2.75 -1.70
Brive -6.21 -4.20 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Nov 27 53 – 7 9.60 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 27 35 – 14 12.80 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Brive Nov 27 22 – 6 11.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 27 12 – 17 5.00 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 27 23 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
6 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 28 21 – 14 0.30 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Nov 28 46 – 12 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Dec 04 Aviron Bayonnais 1.50
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Brive Dec 04 Bordeaux Begles 16.10
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 04 Clermont 4.50
4 Stade Francais vs. La Rochelle Dec 04 Stade Francais 1.50
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Dec 04 Stade Toulousain 18.90
6 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Dec 05 Castres Olympique 8.70
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Dec 05 Toulon 5.50

 

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