Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

March 7, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.68 17.95 -0.30
Blues 13.07 12.34 0.70
Hurricanes 10.43 9.59 0.80
Chiefs 10.17 8.81 1.40
Brumbies 7.18 6.64 0.50
Highlanders 2.92 5.04 -2.10
Reds 2.24 1.89 0.40
Waratahs -1.72 -2.50 0.80
Rebels -6.11 -6.19 0.10
Western Force -6.81 -5.54 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -9.52 -8.91 -0.60
Fijian Drua -10.91 -10.50 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 03 52 – 15 13.00 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 33 – 39 -11.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 04 29 – 52 -19.30 TRUE
4 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 04 17 – 46 -7.60 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 05 20 – 25 6.90 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 05 20 – 71 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 10 Chiefs 10.80
2 Rebels vs. Waratahs Mar 10 Waratahs -0.90
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 11 Crusaders -23.10
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 11 Hurricanes 0.90
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 11 Brumbies 8.40
6 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 11 Western Force 8.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.05 4.14 0.90
Leicester Tigers 3.18 7.93 -4.70
London Irish 2.59 -1.65 4.20
Harlequins 2.37 3.92 -1.60
Gloucester 1.50 5.92 -4.40
Saracens 1.25 -5.00 6.20
Exeter Chiefs 0.60 3.67 -3.10
Bristol 0.13 -2.43 2.60
Northampton Saints -0.05 3.99 -4.00
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bath -6.40 -9.15 2.70
Newcastle Falcons -7.27 -8.76 1.50
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 04 62 – 8 -0.10 FALSE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Mar 05 48 – 27 13.20 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 05 40 – 5 3.20 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Mar 06 19 – 34 -4.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Mar 06 35 – 24 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Mar 11 Northampton Saints 10.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 12 Exeter Chiefs 12.40
3 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Mar 12 London Irish 2.00
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 13 Gloucester 2.80
5 Bristol vs. Harlequins Mar 13 Bristol 2.30

 

February 28, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.99 12.99 -0.00
Storm 11.21 11.21 0.00
Rabbitohs 9.35 9.35 -0.00
Roosters 7.64 7.64 -0.00
Eels 6.78 6.78 0.00
Cowboys 6.23 6.23 0.00
Sharks 4.50 4.50 -0.00
Raiders 1.98 1.98 0.00
Dragons -2.73 -2.73 -0.00
Sea Eagles -5.26 -5.26 -0.00
Broncos -5.92 -5.92 0.00
Titans -6.32 -6.32 -0.00
Bulldogs -8.29 -8.29 -0.00
Knights -9.53 -9.53 -0.00
Dolphins -10.00 -10.00 0.00
Warriors -11.12 -11.12 0.00
Wests Tigers -13.52 -13.52 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Storm Mar 02 Storm -1.40
2 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 03 Warriors 4.40
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 03 Panthers 21.90
4 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 04 Sea Eagles 6.00
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 04 Cowboys 7.20
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Mar 04 Rabbitohs -1.90
7 Dolphins vs. Roosters Mar 05 Roosters -14.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Mar 05 Titans -4.20

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.51 16.79 -0.30
Munster 10.87 9.78 1.10
Ulster 9.48 9.27 0.20
Stormers 8.47 7.14 1.30
Bulls 6.05 7.84 -1.80
Sharks 5.22 6.95 -1.70
Glasgow 3.48 -0.00 3.50
Connacht 2.32 -1.60 3.90
Edinburgh 0.61 3.58 -3.00
Scarlets -2.64 -1.23 -1.40
Ospreys -2.82 -0.83 -2.00
Benetton -4.20 -3.68 -0.50
Lions -4.63 -1.74 -2.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.78 -7.42 2.60
Dragons -10.48 -11.81 1.30
Zebre -17.41 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Glasgow Feb 26 35 – 41 -3.00 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Ulster Feb 26 24 – 31 1.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Mar 04 Glasgow 25.40
2 Munster vs. Scarlets Mar 04 Munster 18.00
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 05 Stormers 7.20
4 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 05 Bulls 14.70
5 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Mar 05 Leinster -11.40
6 Ospreys vs. Benetton Mar 05 Ospreys 5.90
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Mar 05 Ulster -9.80
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Mar 05 Connacht -8.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.56 6.34 1.20
La Rochelle 6.94 6.88 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.10 5.27 -0.20
Stade Francais 4.44 -1.05 5.50
Toulon 3.91 4.09 -0.20
Lyon 3.56 3.10 0.50
Montpellier 3.22 4.18 -1.00
Racing 92 2.98 4.86 -1.90
Clermont 1.96 4.05 -2.10
Aviron Bayonnais 0.51 -4.26 4.80
Castres Olympique -0.46 2.87 -3.30
Section Paloise -2.26 -2.12 -0.10
USA Perpignan -4.65 -2.75 -1.90
Brive -5.56 -4.20 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 26 41 – 10 5.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Feb 26 43 – 7 14.90 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Brive Feb 26 32 – 16 19.30 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Feb 26 45 – 11 5.30 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Feb 26 27 – 17 7.50 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 26 34 – 10 15.50 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Feb 27 36 – 21 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 05 Bordeaux Begles -4.20
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Mar 05 Castres Olympique 2.50
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Mar 05 Montpellier 7.80
4 Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle Mar 05 La Rochelle -2.70
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 05 Toulon 6.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. Aviron Bayonnais Mar 05 USA Perpignan 1.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 06 Racing 92 1.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 4.79 4.14 0.70
Leicester Tigers 2.72 7.93 -5.20
Northampton Saints 2.33 3.99 -1.70
Exeter Chiefs 2.12 3.67 -1.50
London Irish 1.98 -1.65 3.60
Gloucester 1.50 5.92 -4.40
Saracens 1.50 -5.00 6.50
Harlequins 0.85 3.92 -3.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -2.25 -2.43 0.20
Bath -5.94 -9.15 3.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.66 -8.76 2.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 25 13 – 15 1.30 FALSE
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 26 29 – 23 13.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Feb 26 41 – 34 5.00 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 26 22 – 25 4.70 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Feb 27 24 – 22 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 04 Northampton Saints -0.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Mar 05 Leicester Tigers 13.20
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 05 Harlequins 3.20
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Mar 06 London Irish -4.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Mar 06 Sale Sharks 7.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.58 12.34 1.20
Hurricanes 10.71 9.59 1.10
Chiefs 9.97 8.81 1.20
Brumbies 6.67 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.81 5.04 -1.20
Reds 0.78 1.89 -1.10
Waratahs -2.53 -2.50 -0.00
Western Force -5.34 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.39 -6.19 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -9.32 -8.91 -0.40
Fijian Drua -10.09 -10.50 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 10 – 31 12.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Feb 24 25 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Feb 25 34 – 36 7.10 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 25 20 – 60 -3.80 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 13 – 47 -2.20 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Rebels Feb 25 34 – 27 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 03 Crusaders 13.00
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 Hurricanes -11.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 04 Chiefs -19.30
4 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Waratahs -7.60
5 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 05 Blues 6.90
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 05 Reds -6.10

 

February 21, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.51 16.79 -0.30
Munster 10.87 9.78 1.10
Ulster 9.05 9.27 -0.20
Stormers 8.47 7.14 1.30
Bulls 6.05 7.84 -1.80
Sharks 5.66 6.95 -1.30
Glasgow 3.18 -0.00 3.20
Connacht 2.32 -1.60 3.90
Edinburgh 0.61 3.58 -3.00
Scarlets -2.64 -1.23 -1.40
Ospreys -2.82 -0.83 -2.00
Benetton -4.20 -3.68 -0.50
Lions -4.33 -1.74 -2.60
Cardiff Rugby -4.78 -7.42 2.60
Dragons -10.48 -11.81 1.30
Zebre -17.41 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Ulster Feb 18 17 – 11 -2.30 FALSE
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Feb 18 58 – 3 15.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 19 7 – 29 -4.50 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 19 19 – 23 3.00 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 19 34 – 57 -14.30 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Feb 19 30 – 13 2.60 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 42 – 14 -0.80 FALSE
8 Leinster vs. Dragons Feb 19 43 – 14 32.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ulster Feb 26 Sharks 1.10
2 Lions vs. Glasgow Feb 26 Glasgow -3.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.14 6.34 0.80
La Rochelle 7.11 6.88 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.44 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.31 -1.05 5.40
Toulon 4.30 4.09 0.20
Racing 92 3.85 4.86 -1.00
Montpellier 3.34 4.18 -0.80
Lyon 2.70 3.10 -0.40
Clermont 1.57 4.05 -2.50
Castres Olympique 0.32 2.87 -2.50
Aviron Bayonnais -0.26 -4.26 4.00
Section Paloise -1.83 -2.12 0.30
USA Perpignan -3.99 -2.75 -1.20
Brive -5.73 -4.20 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Feb 19 29 – 26 1.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Feb 19 17 – 32 0.70 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Montpellier Feb 19 31 – 21 5.40 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Brive Feb 19 34 – 24 16.80 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 19 49 – 29 3.20 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 19 17 – 6 2.90 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 20 18 – 9 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 26 Aviron Bayonnais 5.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Feb 26 Bordeaux Begles 14.90
3 La Rochelle vs. Brive Feb 26 La Rochelle 19.30
4 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Feb 26 Lyon 5.30
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Feb 26 Stade Francais 7.50
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 26 Stade Toulousain 15.50
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Feb 27 Clermont 3.80

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.95 17.95 -0.00
Blues 12.34 12.34 -0.00
Hurricanes 9.59 9.59 -0.00
Chiefs 8.81 8.81 0.00
Brumbies 6.64 6.64 -0.00
Highlanders 5.04 5.04 -0.00
Reds 1.89 1.89 0.00
Waratahs -2.50 -2.50 0.00
Western Force -5.54 -5.54 -0.00
Rebels -6.19 -6.19 0.00
Moana Pasifika -8.91 -8.91 -0.00
Fijian Drua -10.50 -10.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Crusaders 12.60
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Feb 24 Brumbies -5.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Feb 25 Moana Pasifika 7.10
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 25 Blues -3.80
5 Reds vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Hurricanes -2.20
6 Western Force vs. Rebels Feb 25 Western Force 4.20

 

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