Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

April 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.92 12.99 1.90
Rabbitohs 9.27 9.35 -0.10
Storm 8.80 11.21 -2.40
Roosters 5.11 7.64 -2.50
Eels 3.56 6.78 -3.20
Raiders 2.27 1.98 0.30
Cowboys 2.01 6.23 -4.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -1.11 -2.73 1.60
Broncos -1.64 -5.92 4.30
Sea Eagles -4.39 -5.26 0.90
Titans -6.07 -6.32 0.20
Dolphins -6.08 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -7.94 -11.12 3.20
Bulldogs -8.12 -8.29 0.20
Knights -11.15 -9.53 -1.60
Wests Tigers -12.76 -13.52 0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 28 – 8 4.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 16 – 50 -11.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 22 – 32 13.90 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 44 – 12 20.80 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 14 – 20 0.00 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 20 – 18 -3.10 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 34 – 24 1.60 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 22 – 28 -14.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Apr 13 Rabbitohs -12.30
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 14 Roosters -0.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 14 Storm -10.20
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 15 Cowboys -3.90
5 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 15 Panthers -23.10
6 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 15 Broncos -1.40
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Apr 16 Raiders 6.40
8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 16 Eels 14.70

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.83 17.95 -1.10
Blues 13.21 12.34 0.90
Hurricanes 11.18 9.59 1.60
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Brumbies 7.60 6.64 1.00
Highlanders 2.99 5.04 -2.10
Reds 0.29 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -6.51 -6.19 -0.30
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -10.97 -8.91 -2.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 38 – 21 32.60 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 24 – 52 -1.90 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 14 – 29 -3.70 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 17 – 54 -12.40 TRUE

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 14 Reds -5.80
2 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua Apr 14 Brumbies 20.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Apr 15 Waratahs 7.10

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 7.81 4.67 3.10
Pumas 7.61 2.84 4.80
Bulls -0.10 3.43 -3.50
Sharks -0.74 -1.30 0.60
Griquas -1.22 1.39 -2.60
Western Province -2.79 -3.24 0.50
Lions -8.31 -7.79 -0.50
Griffons -12.27 -10.00 -2.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Apr 08 40 – 3 0.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Apr 08 19 – 12 -6.20 FALSE
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Apr 09 47 – 28 12.50 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 10 15 – 52 -8.40 TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 15 Sharks 3.40
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Apr 16 Cheetahs -6.60
3 Griffons vs. Pumas Apr 16 Pumas -15.90
4 Lions vs. Griquas Apr 17 Griquas -3.10
April 4, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.16 12.99 1.20
Rabbitohs 7.95 9.35 -1.40
Storm 7.83 11.21 -3.40
Roosters 6.08 7.64 -1.60
Eels 4.17 6.78 -2.60
Cowboys 3.40 6.23 -2.80
Raiders 1.81 1.98 -0.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -0.55 -2.73 2.20
Broncos -1.17 -5.92 4.80
Sea Eagles -3.63 -5.26 1.60
Titans -6.63 -6.32 -0.30
Bulldogs -6.80 -8.29 1.50
Warriors -7.34 -11.12 3.80
Dolphins -7.47 -10.00 2.50
Knights -11.76 -9.53 -2.20
Wests Tigers -13.38 -13.52 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Eels Mar 30 28 – 20 4.00 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 31 12 – 53 -5.50 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Mar 31 10 – 18 4.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 01 32 – 32 12.80 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Apr 01 38 – 12 7.70 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 46 – 12 12.70 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 02 30 – 32 17.00 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 02 15 – 14 -8.50 FALSE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 Storm 4.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 Rabbitohs -11.80
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 Cowboys 13.90
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 Panthers 20.80
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 Broncos 0.00
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 Dragons -3.10
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 Knights 1.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 Eels -14.50
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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.46 17.95 -0.50
Blues 12.31 12.34 -0.00
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Hurricanes 10.70 9.59 1.10
Brumbies 6.65 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.47 5.04 -1.60
Reds 1.25 1.89 -0.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -5.60 -6.19 0.60
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -11.60 -8.91 -2.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 31 17 – 45 -10.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 31 12 – 25 -10.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Apr 01 38 – 28 -1.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 01 20 – 13 1.50 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 01 40 – 36 12.70 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Apr 02 45 – 42 23.20 TRUE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 Crusaders 32.60
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 Brumbies -1.90
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 Hurricanes -3.70
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 Blues -12.40

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 8.53 2.84 5.70
Cheetahs 5.97 4.67 1.30
Griquas 1.07 1.39 -0.30
Sharks -1.65 -1.30 -0.30
Bulls -2.39 3.43 -5.80
Western Province -3.27 -3.24 -0.00
Lions -6.48 -7.79 1.30
Griffons -11.78 -10.00 -1.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Bulls Apr 01 32 – 28 -6.90 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Apr 01 21 – 61 7.20 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 02 34 – 22 -2.90 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Griquas Apr 02 13 – 32 2.50 FALSE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Apr 08 Bulls 0.50
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Apr 08 Pumas -6.20
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Apr 09 Western Province 12.50
4 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 10 Cheetahs -8.40
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March 28, 2023

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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I was not aware the Currie Cup was starting, and only just saw the results recently. Sorry that I missed the first three rounds: I had always intended to give predictions for it this year again.

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 8.86 4.67 4.20
Pumas 5.64 2.84 2.80
Griquas -0.36 1.39 -1.80
Sharks -0.63 -1.30 0.70
Bulls -1.61 3.43 -5.00
Western Province -1.85 -3.24 1.40
Lions -7.50 -7.79 0.30
Griffons -12.56 -10.00 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griffons Mar 25 41 – 26 8.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 25 32 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Griquas Mar 25 28 – 13 9.10 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Western Province Mar 26 20 – 7 3.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Bulls Apr 01 Bulls -6.90
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Apr 01 Cheetahs 7.20
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 02 Sharks -2.90
4 Western Province vs. Griquas Apr 02 Western Province 2.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.26 12.99 -1.70
Rabbitohs 8.42 9.35 -0.90
Storm 7.57 11.21 -3.60
Sharks 5.75 4.50 1.20
Roosters 5.64 7.64 -2.00
Eels 5.60 6.78 -1.20
Cowboys 2.82 6.23 -3.40
Raiders 0.79 1.98 -1.20
Broncos -1.68 -5.92 4.20
Sea Eagles -2.41 -5.26 2.80
Dragons -4.93 -2.73 -2.20
Titans -5.39 -6.32 0.90
Dolphins -7.11 -10.00 2.90
Bulldogs -7.60 -8.29 0.70
Warriors -8.36 -11.12 2.80
Knights -9.68 -9.53 -0.20
Wests Tigers -12.69 -13.52 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Panthers Mar 23 17 – 16 -3.70 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Mar 24 24 – 12 25.00 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 24 12 – 18 -1.40 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 25 24 – 12 11.00 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Mar 25 13 – 12 15.70 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Mar 26 16 – 14 6.20 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 26 24 – 14 -9.90 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Mar 26 8 – 40 -4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Eels Mar 30 Roosters 3.00
2 Raiders vs. Panthers Mar 31 Panthers -7.50
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Mar 31 Rabbitohs 3.90
4 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Apr 01 Sea Eagles 10.30
5 Dragons vs. Dolphins Apr 01 Dragons 5.20
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 Broncos 14.00
7 Sharks vs. Warriors Apr 02 Sharks 20.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Apr 02 Cowboys -7.40

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.36 16.79 -0.40
Ulster 10.03 9.27 0.80
Munster 9.44 9.78 -0.30
Stormers 8.95 7.14 1.80
Bulls 5.30 7.84 -2.50
Glasgow 5.08 -0.00 5.10
Sharks 4.68 6.95 -2.30
Connacht 2.15 -1.60 3.70
Edinburgh -0.31 3.58 -3.90
Scarlets -1.44 -1.23 -0.20
Ospreys -3.06 -0.83 -2.20
Lions -3.39 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.97 -3.68 -0.30
Cardiff Rugby -5.79 -7.42 1.60
Dragons -10.31 -11.81 1.50
Zebre -17.70 -16.99 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 25 30 – 34 -8.30 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Mar 25 22 – 22 13.10 FALSE
3 Benetton vs. Lions Mar 26 28 – 32 4.80 FALSE
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Mar 26 37 – 18 10.30 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Edinburgh Mar 26 41 – 26 6.00 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Mar 26 26 – 38 10.60 FALSE
7 Scarlets vs. Sharks Mar 26 32 – 20 -2.90 FALSE
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Mar 26 32 – 23 9.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Benetton Apr 15 Sharks 13.20
2 Glasgow vs. Scarlets Apr 15 Glasgow 11.00
3 Ulster vs. Dragons Apr 15 Ulster 24.80
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 15 Leinster -15.20
5 Bulls vs. Zebre Apr 16 Bulls 27.50
6 Stormers vs. Munster Apr 16 Stormers 4.00
7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 16 Connacht 12.40
8 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Apr 16 Edinburgh 7.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

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Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 8.04 6.88 1.20
Stade Toulousain 7.46 6.34 1.10
Toulon 5.07 4.09 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.62 5.27 -0.60
Montpellier 3.82 4.18 -0.40
Stade Francais 3.35 -1.05 4.40
Racing 92 3.09 4.86 -1.80
Lyon 2.97 3.10 -0.10
Clermont 1.79 4.05 -2.30
Castres Olympique 0.07 2.87 -2.80
Aviron Bayonnais -0.39 -4.26 3.90
Section Paloise -1.71 -2.12 0.40
USA Perpignan -4.33 -2.75 -1.60
Brive -6.59 -4.20 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise Mar 26 20 – 30 9.00 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. La Rochelle Mar 26 6 – 36 5.10 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 26 27 – 17 -1.70 FALSE
4 Clermont vs. Brive Mar 26 38 – 10 13.90 TRUE
5 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 26 23 – 27 5.30 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Mar 26 22 – 23 -1.70 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Mar 27 13 – 17 7.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Stade Francais Apr 15 Stade Francais -3.40
2 La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais Apr 15 La Rochelle 14.90
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Apr 15 Montpellier 10.30
4 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 15 Racing 92 5.00
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Apr 15 Section Paloise 3.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Apr 15 Stade Toulousain 11.00
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Apr 15 Toulon 15.90

 

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