Posts filed under Sports statistics (1485)

May 9, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 16.79 -2.10
Munster 10.35 9.78 0.60
Ulster 8.99 9.27 -0.30
Stormers 8.73 7.14 1.60
Bulls 7.91 7.84 0.10
Connacht 3.92 -1.60 5.50
Glasgow 3.79 -0.00 3.80
Sharks 3.79 6.95 -3.20
Edinburgh 0.38 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.88 -1.23 -0.60
Lions -3.38 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.61 -3.68 0.10
Ospreys -4.69 -0.83 -3.90
Cardiff Rugby -5.53 -7.42 1.90
Dragons -9.05 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -18.42 -16.99 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Munster May 07 5 – 14 -1.20 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Sharks May 07 35 – 5 14.00 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Bulls May 07 33 – 21 4.00 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Connacht May 07 10 – 15 10.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Connacht May 14 Stormers 9.30
2 Leinster vs. Munster May 14 Leinster 8.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.74 6.88 0.90
Stade Toulousain 7.08 6.34 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.65 5.27 -0.60
Toulon 4.36 4.09 0.30
Racing 92 3.68 4.86 -1.20
Stade Francais 3.38 -1.05 4.40
Montpellier 2.91 4.18 -1.30
Lyon 2.78 3.10 -0.30
Clermont 1.82 4.05 -2.20
Castres Olympique -0.14 2.87 -3.00
Section Paloise -0.39 -2.12 1.70
Aviron Bayonnais -0.62 -4.26 3.60
USA Perpignan -4.09 -2.75 -1.30
Brive -5.90 -4.20 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Stade Francais May 07 32 – 16 4.10 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan May 07 41 – 31 13.70 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Brive May 07 26 – 27 16.40 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 07 55 – 14 8.90 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique May 07 40 – 3 4.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. La Rochelle May 07 8 – 23 4.40 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles May 08 31 – 17 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Clermont May 13 Aviron Bayonnais 4.10
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise May 13 Bordeaux Begles 11.50
3 Brive vs. Castres Olympique May 13 Brive 0.70
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 13 Montpellier 1.70
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 13 Racing 92 5.80
6 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 13 Stade Francais 7.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain May 13 Stade Toulousain -4.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.57 17.95 -1.40
Chiefs 13.12 8.81 4.30
Blues 12.65 12.34 0.30
Hurricanes 9.54 9.59 -0.10
Brumbies 7.31 6.64 0.70
Highlanders 1.66 5.04 -3.40
Reds 0.25 1.89 -1.60
Waratahs -1.28 -2.50 1.20
Rebels -5.71 -6.19 0.50
Western Force -5.92 -5.54 -0.40
Fijian Drua -8.83 -10.50 1.70
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -8.91 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 28 – 52 -6.60 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 27 – 24 -14.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 48 – 13 27.30 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 31 – 30 28.90 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 24 – 32 6.20 FALSE
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 26 – 33 -9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds May 12 Chiefs 18.40
2 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 12 Western Force 6.40
3 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 13 Hurricanes 23.80
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 13 Crusaders 7.40
5 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 13 Waratahs 7.90
6 Brumbies vs. Highlanders May 14 Brumbies 11.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.28 4.14 2.10
Leicester Tigers 5.97 7.93 -2.00
Northampton Saints 2.85 3.99 -1.10
London Irish 2.40 -1.65 4.00
Harlequins 1.28 3.92 -2.60
Saracens 0.83 -5.00 5.80
Bristol 0.33 -2.43 2.80
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Exeter Chiefs -1.42 3.67 -5.10
Gloucester -1.80 5.92 -7.70
Bath -2.20 -9.15 6.90
Newcastle Falcons -11.59 -8.76 -2.80
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 117 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens May 07 61 – 29 -1.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 07 36 – 21 5.60 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 07 17 – 20 10.70 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 07 17 – 14 9.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons May 07 54 – 12 20.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints May 14 Saracens 2.50
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 15 Sale Sharks 4.80

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 6.79 2.84 3.90
Cheetahs 6.02 4.67 1.30
Sharks 2.05 -1.30 3.40
Western Province 0.02 -3.24 3.30
Bulls -2.27 3.43 -5.70
Griquas -2.39 1.39 -3.80
Lions -6.20 -7.79 1.60
Griffons -14.02 -10.00 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Lions May 06 25 – 21 8.50 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griffons May 06 45 – 25 25.70 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province May 07 26 – 21 10.90 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks May 07 27 – 41 1.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Western Province May 13 Western Province -10.00
2 Pumas vs. Sharks May 13 Pumas 8.70
3 Griquas vs. Bulls May 14 Griquas 3.90
4 Cheetahs vs. Lions May 14 Cheetahs 16.20

 

May 2, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

I have had to update the predictions for this round since I just became aware the games are all being played at Suncorp.

I have to say that this arrangement is blatantly unfair to the non-Brisbane teams which lose a home game advantage but particularly the Sea Eagles, the Sharks and the Warriors on this occasion. The first two teams get to play their home game at the home stadium of their opponents so are doubly disadvantaged regarding home ground advantage. The Warriors have to play their home game across the Tasman and the home ground advantage they lose is greater for them according to my statistical analysis.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.52 12.99 -1.50
Rabbitohs 11.41 9.35 2.10
Storm 6.74 11.21 -4.50
Roosters 4.51 7.64 -3.10
Sharks 4.42 4.50 -0.10
Eels 4.22 6.78 -2.60
Raiders 1.47 1.98 -0.50
Broncos -0.71 -5.92 5.20
Cowboys -1.39 6.23 -7.60
Dragons -1.42 -2.73 1.30
Sea Eagles -4.58 -5.26 0.70
Titans -5.58 -6.32 0.70
Dolphins -6.14 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -6.99 -11.12 4.10
Bulldogs -8.54 -8.29 -0.30
Knights -10.04 -9.53 -0.50
Wests Tigers -10.89 -13.52 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 27 44 – 6 5.20 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Knights Apr 28 43 – 12 15.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 28 6 – 32 -6.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 29 31 – 30 12.10 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 29 10 – 26 6.70 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 8 – 12 29.00 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Roosters Apr 30 0 – 14 -4.10 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 30 16 – 18 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 05 Raiders -10.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 05 Broncos -6.90
3 Warriors vs. Panthers May 06 Panthers -18.50
4 Sharks vs. Dolphins May 06 Sharks 7.60
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 06 Rabbitohs -4.70
6 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 07 Dragons -9.50
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 07 Roosters 5.90
8 Titans vs. Eels May 07 Eels -9.80

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.21 17.95 -1.70
Blues 13.66 12.34 1.30
Chiefs 12.43 8.81 3.60
Hurricanes 10.23 9.59 0.60
Brumbies 7.51 6.64 0.90
Highlanders 2.35 5.04 -2.70
Reds 0.83 1.89 -1.10
Waratahs -1.87 -2.50 0.60
Western Force -5.56 -5.54 -0.00
Rebels -5.92 -6.19 0.30
Fijian Drua -9.51 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.73 -8.91 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Apr 28 32 – 27 8.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Apr 28 21 – 20 1.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Blues Apr 29 14 – 30 -17.90 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Apr 29 33 – 43 0.60 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Apr 29 34 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
6 Reds vs. Western Force Apr 29 31 – 17 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 05 Chiefs -6.60
2 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes May 06 Hurricanes -14.20
3 Crusaders vs. Western Force May 06 Crusaders 27.30
4 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika May 06 Blues 28.90
5 Reds vs. Waratahs May 06 Reds 6.20
6 Rebels vs. Brumbies May 07 Brumbies -9.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 7.22 2.84 4.40
Cheetahs 6.47 4.67 1.80
Sharks 0.96 -1.30 2.30
Western Province -0.42 -3.24 2.80
Bulls -1.19 3.43 -4.60
Griquas -2.04 1.39 -3.40
Lions -6.55 -7.79 1.20
Griffons -14.45 -10.00 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Apr 29 26 – 10 -13.60 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Griffons Apr 29 33 – 10 25.30 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Griquas Apr 30 24 – 6 5.20 TRUE
4 Western Province vs. Bulls Apr 30 31 – 7 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions May 06 Griquas 8.50
2 Pumas vs. Griffons May 06 Pumas 25.70
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province May 07 Cheetahs 10.90
4 Bulls vs. Sharks May 07 Bulls 1.80

 

April 25, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.32 12.99 0.30
Rabbitohs 10.24 9.35 0.90
Storm 6.74 11.21 -4.50
Roosters 3.82 7.64 -3.80
Eels 3.22 6.78 -3.60
Sharks 2.63 4.50 -1.90
Raiders 2.23 1.98 0.30
Broncos 0.46 -5.92 6.40
Cowboys 0.40 6.23 -5.80
Dragons -0.52 -2.73 2.20
Sea Eagles -3.24 -5.26 2.00
Warriors -6.30 -11.12 4.80
Dolphins -6.90 -10.00 3.10
Titans -6.92 -6.32 -0.60
Knights -9.04 -9.53 0.50
Bulldogs -9.44 -8.29 -1.20
Wests Tigers -12.70 -13.52 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Apr 20 20 – 18 -0.70 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Broncos Apr 21 16 – 26 8.00 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Apr 22 20 – 33 -8.00 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Apr 22 18 – 16 14.10 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Titans Apr 23 28 – 26 3.30 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 23 16 – 22 -6.60 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 27 – 26 8.40 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 30 – 22 20.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 27 Sharks 5.20
2 Eels vs. Knights Apr 28 Eels 15.30
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 28 Rabbitohs -6.80
4 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 29 Raiders 12.10
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 29 Sea Eagles 6.70
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 Panthers 29.00
7 Warriors vs. Roosters Apr 30 Roosters -4.10
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 30 Dragons 11.90

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 19

By

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.03 16.79 -2.80
Munster 9.93 9.78 0.10
Ulster 9.67 9.27 0.40
Bulls 8.34 7.84 0.50
Stormers 8.30 7.14 1.20
Sharks 4.49 6.95 -2.50
Glasgow 4.21 -0.00 4.20
Connacht 3.24 -1.60 4.80
Edinburgh 0.38 3.58 -3.20
Scarlets -1.88 -1.23 -0.60
Lions -3.38 -1.74 -1.60
Benetton -3.61 -3.68 0.10
Ospreys -4.69 -0.83 -3.90
Cardiff Rugby -5.53 -7.42 1.90
Dragons -9.05 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -18.42 -16.99 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Benetton Apr 22 38 – 22 16.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Apr 22 28 – 14 13.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Zebre Apr 22 50 – 35 20.70 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 23 31 – 14 -4.90 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Leinster Apr 23 62 – 7 -4.70 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 23 21 – 38 6.70 FALSE
7 Sharks vs. Munster Apr 23 22 – 22 -1.20 FALSE
8 Glasgow vs. Connacht Apr 23 29 – 27 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Munster May 07 Munster -1.20
2 Leinster vs. Sharks May 07 Leinster 14.00
3 Stormers vs. Bulls May 07 Stormers 4.00
4 Ulster vs. Connacht May 07 Ulster 10.40

 

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