Posts filed under Sports statistics (1531)

September 18, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
South Africa 18.34 16.35 2.00
Ireland 17.72 15.46 2.30
New Zealand 17.23 16.32 0.90
France 12.13 12.48 -0.40
Scotland 6.37 6.81 -0.40
England 5.46 4.22 1.20
Australia 2.81 2.63 0.20
Wales 1.63 0.75 0.90
Fiji 0.62 0.58 0.00
Argentina 0.57 1.23 -0.70
Samoa 0.29 -0.50 0.80
Georgia -3.25 -2.56 -0.70
Japan -5.77 -6.10 0.30
Italy -7.32 -8.84 1.50
Tonga -12.06 -11.38 -0.70
Portugal -14.03 -13.61 -0.40
Uruguay -14.57 -15.47 0.90
Namibia -16.15 -13.18 -3.00
Chile -16.83 -15.13 -1.70
Romania -20.15 -17.02 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 93.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 France vs. Uruguay Sep 14 27 – 12 35.50 TRUE
2 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 15 71 – 3 30.50 TRUE
3 Samoa vs. Chile Sep 16 43 – 10 15.50 TRUE
4 Wales vs. Portugal Sep 16 28 – 8 14.80 TRUE
5 Ireland vs. Tonga Sep 16 59 – 16 28.40 TRUE
6 South Africa vs. Romania Sep 17 76 – 0 35.40 TRUE
7 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 17 15 – 22 3.20 FALSE
8 England vs. Japan Sep 17 34 – 12 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Italy vs. Uruguay Sep 20 Italy 7.30
2 France vs. Namibia Sep 21 France 35.30
3 Argentina vs. Samoa Sep 22 Argentina 0.30
4 Georgia vs. Portugal Sep 23 Georgia 10.80
5 England vs. Chile Sep 23 England 22.30
6 South Africa vs. Ireland Sep 23 South Africa 0.60
7 Scotland vs. Tonga Sep 24 Scotland 18.40
8 Wales vs. Australia Sep 24 Australia -1.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.40 8.72 3.70
Canterbury 7.58 9.44 -1.90
North Harbour 6.09 7.75 -1.70
Tasman 4.57 2.20 2.40
Auckland 3.78 2.15 1.60
Bay of Plenty 3.38 4.55 -1.20
Waikato 2.26 3.71 -1.50
Hawke’s Bay 2.25 5.12 -2.90
Taranaki 1.04 -2.98 4.00
Otago -2.10 0.62 -2.70
Northland -5.05 -3.92 -1.10
Counties Manukau -5.22 -7.44 2.20
Southland -11.30 -12.27 1.00
Manawatu -16.21 -14.18 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 57 – 7 17.20 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 12 – 27 7.60 FALSE
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 50 – 31 12.80 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 17 – 36 2.90 FALSE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 14 – 26 -4.30 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 29 – 14 23.80 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 27 – 17 13.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 22 Bay of Plenty -5.40
2 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sep 23 Counties Manukau 14.00
3 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 23 Hawke’s Bay -10.60
4 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sep 23 Canterbury 6.00
5 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sep 23 Taranaki 0.30
6 Wellington vs. North Harbour Sep 24 Wellington 9.30
7 Waikato vs. Otago Sep 24 Waikato 7.40

 

September 14, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.55 8.72 2.80
Canterbury 8.55 9.44 -0.90
North Harbour 5.41 7.75 -2.30
Auckland 5.34 2.15 3.20
Tasman 4.97 2.20 2.80
Bay of Plenty 4.23 4.55 -0.30
Waikato 0.70 3.71 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.11 5.12 -5.00
Taranaki -0.47 -2.98 2.50
Otago -0.58 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.36 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -5.61 -7.44 1.80
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.07 -14.18 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 13 31 – 29 -13.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Sep 15 Hawke’s Bay 17.20
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Sep 16 Auckland 7.60
3 North Harbour vs. Northland Sep 16 North Harbour 12.80
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sep 16 Otago 2.90
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Sep 17 Wellington -4.30
6 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 17 Canterbury 23.80
7 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Sep 17 Tasman 13.60

 

September 12, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.82 6.82 0.00
Sale Sharks 6.46 6.46 -0.00
Leicester Tigers 6.13 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 2.66 2.66 0.00
Harlequins 1.93 1.93 0.00
Bristol 1.00 1.00 0.00
Exeter Chiefs -0.89 -0.89 -0.00
Bath -1.26 -1.26 0.00
Gloucester -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.63 -10.63 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 14 Bristol 0.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 14 Saracens -1.70
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 15 Bath 15.40
4 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 15 Gloucester 2.60
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Oct 15 Sale Sharks 9.80

 

September 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.87 12.99 0.90
Storm 7.94 11.21 -3.30
Broncos 7.40 -5.92 13.30
Knights 3.42 -9.53 12.90
Sharks 2.94 4.50 -1.60
Roosters 2.73 7.64 -4.90
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Warriors -0.56 -11.12 10.60
Raiders -4.31 1.98 -6.30
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 208 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 08 26 – 0 -0.60 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 09 32 – 6 19.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sep 09 12 – 13 4.40 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Raiders Sep 10 30 – 28 12.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 15 Storm 8.20
2 Warriors vs. Knights Sep 16 Warriors 2.00

 

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Ireland 17.04 15.46 1.60
South Africa 16.79 16.35 0.40
New Zealand 15.78 16.32 -0.50
France 13.02 12.48 0.50
Scotland 6.37 6.81 -0.40
England 4.88 4.22 0.70
Australia 3.32 2.63 0.70
Wales 1.22 0.75 0.50
Argentina 0.57 1.23 -0.70
Fiji 0.11 0.58 -0.50
Samoa -0.50 -0.50 -0.00
Georgia -3.25 -2.56 -0.70
Japan -5.19 -6.10 0.90
Italy -7.32 -8.84 1.50
Tonga -11.38 -11.38 -0.00
Portugal -13.61 -13.61 0.00
Namibia -14.70 -13.18 -1.50
Uruguay -15.47 -15.47 -0.00
Chile -16.05 -15.13 -0.90
Romania -18.60 -17.02 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 France vs. New Zealand Sep 08 27 – 13 3.20 TRUE
2 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 09 52 – 8 4.30 TRUE
3 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 09 82 – 8 32.50 TRUE
4 Australia vs. Georgia Sep 09 35 – 15 5.20 TRUE
5 England vs. Argentina Sep 09 27 – 10 3.00 TRUE
6 Japan vs. Chile Sep 10 42 – 12 9.00 TRUE
7 South Africa vs. Scotland Sep 10 18 – 3 9.50 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Fiji Sep 10 32 – 26 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 France vs. Uruguay Sep 14 France 35.50
2 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 15 New Zealand 30.50
3 Samoa vs. Chile Sep 16 Samoa 15.50
4 Wales vs. Portugal Sep 16 Wales 14.80
5 Ireland vs. Tonga Sep 16 Ireland 28.40
6 South Africa vs. Romania Sep 17 South Africa 35.40
7 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 17 Australia 3.20
8 England vs. Japan Sep 17 England 10.10

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.55 8.72 2.80
Canterbury 9.67 9.44 0.20
North Harbour 5.41 7.75 -2.30
Auckland 5.34 2.15 3.20
Tasman 4.97 2.20 2.80
Bay of Plenty 4.23 4.55 -0.30
Waikato 0.70 3.71 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.11 5.12 -5.00
Taranaki -0.47 -2.98 2.50
Otago -0.58 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.36 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -6.74 -7.44 0.70
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.07 -14.18 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 47 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 08 24 – 41 -6.20 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sep 09 39 – 29 8.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 09 35 – 38 -0.60 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 09 36 – 29 -2.90 FALSE
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 10 29 – 48 -15.80 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 10 18 – 29 -0.90 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 30 – 15 5.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 13 Canterbury -13.40

 

September 7, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.72 8.72 2.00
Canterbury 10.44 9.44 1.00
North Harbour 5.05 7.75 -2.70
Auckland 4.57 2.15 2.40
Tasman 4.18 2.20 2.00
Bay of Plenty 3.96 4.55 -0.60
Waikato 1.53 3.71 -2.20
Hawke’s Bay 0.38 5.12 -4.70
Taranaki 0.31 -2.98 3.30
Otago -1.35 0.62 -2.00
Northland -3.60 -3.92 0.30
Counties Manukau -6.94 -7.44 0.50
Southland -12.07 -12.27 0.20
Manawatu -13.71 -14.18 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Sep 06 27 – 24 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 08 Wellington -6.20
2 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sep 09 Counties Manukau 8.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 09 Bay of Plenty -0.60
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 09 Canterbury -2.90
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 10 North Harbour -15.80
6 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 10 Tasman -0.90
7 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 Otago 5.30

 

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September 5, 2023

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.38 12.99 0.40
Storm 9.45 11.21 -1.80
Broncos 5.89 -5.92 11.80
Knights 4.12 -9.53 13.60
Sharks 3.53 4.50 -1.00
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Roosters 2.13 7.64 -5.50
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Warriors -0.06 -11.12 11.10
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -5.02 1.98 -7.00
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 31 22 – 32 0.90 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 54 – 12 12.40 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 01 12 – 26 4.00 FALSE
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Sep 02 34 – 10 -4.20 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Sep 02 44 – 12 11.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 02 12 – 32 -6.30 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 34 – 30 9.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 03 24 – 6 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 08 Storm -0.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 09 Panthers 19.40
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sep 09 Sharks 4.40
4 Knights vs. Raiders Sep 10 Knights 12.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.89 7.24 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.38 6.40 -0.00
Racing 92 4.44 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.52 4.07 -0.60
Stade Francais 3.25 2.62 0.60
Toulon 2.71 3.11 -0.40
Lyon 2.03 2.97 -0.90
Montpellier 1.67 2.09 -0.40
Clermont 1.14 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.70 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.60 -0.44 1.00
Bayonne -1.31 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.77 -3.64 -2.10
US Oyonnax -8.63 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 21 – 27 -9.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 37 – 0 6.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 59 – 10 14.70 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 40 – 10 3.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 24 – 9 7.30 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 11 – 10 1.30 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 29 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 29 Lyon 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 29 Montpellier 3.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 29 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 29 Stade Toulousain 9.90
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 29 Toulon 17.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 29 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

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