Posts filed under Sports statistics (1531)

January 8, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.64 6.13 -0.50
Saracens 5.56 6.82 -1.30
Harlequins 4.47 1.93 2.50
Northampton Saints 4.24 2.66 1.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.94 -0.89 4.80
Bristol 2.61 1.00 1.60
Bath 2.03 -1.26 3.30
Sale Sharks 0.85 6.46 -5.60
Gloucester -4.74 -1.45 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.83 -10.63 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 3 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 14 – 22 6.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 36 – 42 8.20 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 19 – 10 5.30 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 17 – 10 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 Harlequins 4.80
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 Northampton Saints 24.10
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 Saracens 7.60
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 Gloucester 0.40

 

January 3, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

By

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.23 10.73 0.50
Bulls 10.75 9.00 1.80
Munster 8.10 10.54 -2.40
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 5.98 4.19 1.80
Ulster 5.32 7.80 -2.50
Connacht 4.13 3.17 1.00
Edinburgh 0.65 -2.26 2.90
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Sharks -0.17 0.85 -1.00
Benetton -2.39 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -4.23 -5.16 0.90
Ospreys -4.52 -7.79 3.30
Scarlets -9.96 -2.23 -7.70
Dragons -14.27 -8.14 -6.10
Zebre -17.33 -20.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 30 36 – 14 15.70 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 19 – 14 -4.90 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 31 16 – 15 10.10 TRUE
4 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 01 22 – 9 -4.60 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 27 – 21 0.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 13 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 02 21 – 22 9.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 07 Sharks 1.60
2 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 28 Bulls 12.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.10 3.42 2.70
Bordeaux Begles 5.45 4.07 1.40
Stade Rochelais 5.35 6.40 -1.10
Stade Toulousain 5.33 7.24 -1.90
Toulon 4.59 3.11 1.50
Stade Francais 2.83 2.62 0.20
Clermont 0.68 1.47 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.63 -0.44 1.10
Lyon 0.22 2.97 -2.70
Montpellier -0.26 2.09 -2.40
Bayonne -1.05 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -4.75 -3.64 -1.10
US Oyonnax -8.16 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 35 – 40 2.50 FALSE
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 34 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 27 – 23 -1.20 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 20 – 18 7.50 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 29 – 8 5.50 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 19 – 5 7.60 TRUE
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 13 – 17 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 Bordeaux Begles 13.00
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 Montpellier 1.60
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 Racing 92 11.90
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 Section Paloise 1.80
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 Stade Francais 8.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 Stade Toulousain 11.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 USA Perpignan 9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.93 6.82 -0.90
Leicester Tigers 5.27 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 5.18 -0.89 6.10
Harlequins 3.52 1.93 1.60
Northampton Saints 3.00 2.66 0.30
Bath 2.67 -1.26 3.90
Sale Sharks 2.14 6.46 -4.30
Bristol 1.31 1.00 0.30
Gloucester -5.38 -1.45 -3.90
Newcastle Falcons -12.89 -10.63 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 14 – 24 4.70 FALSE
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 37 – 19 26.30 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 21 – 17 7.60 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 32 – 26 16.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 35 – 22 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 Harlequins -10.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 Sale Sharks 6.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 Exeter Chiefs 8.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 Leicester Tigers 5.30
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 Bath 14.00

 

December 24, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.36 3.42 2.90
Stade Toulousain 5.84 7.24 -1.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.07 4.07 1.00
Stade Rochelais 4.83 6.40 -1.60
Toulon 4.27 3.11 1.20
Stade Francais 3.15 2.62 0.50
Section Paloise 1.39 -0.44 1.80
Castres Olympique 1.22 -0.39 1.60
Clermont 1.06 1.47 -0.40
Lyon 0.49 2.97 -2.50
Montpellier -0.54 2.09 -2.60
Bayonne -1.30 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.31 -3.64 -1.70
US Oyonnax -8.92 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Dec 23 46 – 10 9.50 TRUE
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Dec 23 36 – 10 0.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 30 – 21 4.30 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax Dec 24 66 – 10 19.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Dec 24 22 – 11 6.40 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 24 18 – 13 4.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Dec 24 25 – 17 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 Clermont 2.50
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 Section Paloise -3.80
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 Racing 92 -1.20
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 Lyon 7.50
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 Stade Rochelais 5.50
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 Toulon 7.60
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 Castres Olympique 13.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.67 6.82 -0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.78 6.13 -1.30
Harlequins 4.49 1.93 2.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.90 -0.89 4.80
Northampton Saints 3.36 2.66 0.70
Bath 3.16 -1.26 4.40
Bristol 2.60 1.00 1.60
Sale Sharks 1.78 6.46 -4.70
Gloucester -6.35 -1.45 -4.90
Newcastle Falcons -13.64 -10.63 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Dec 23 13 – 21 -10.80 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Dec 23 22 – 20 0.90 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 24 29 – 10 2.20 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 24 29 – 31 -4.10 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 24 25 – 17 3.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 Bristol 4.70
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 Saracens 26.30
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 Northampton Saints 7.60
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 Harlequins 16.80
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 Leicester Tigers 7.60

 

December 5, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 11.48 9.00 2.50
Leinster 11.39 10.73 0.70
Munster 10.09 10.54 -0.50
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 6.38 4.19 2.20
Ulster 4.82 7.80 -3.00
Connacht 2.48 3.17 -0.70
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Edinburgh 0.25 -2.26 2.50
Sharks -0.89 0.85 -1.70
Benetton -2.43 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -5.48 -5.16 -0.30
Ospreys -6.10 -7.79 1.70
Scarlets -8.49 -2.23 -6.30
Dragons -12.90 -8.14 -4.80
Zebre -17.28 -20.25 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Glasgow Dec 02 40 – 29 6.90 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Dec 02 44 – 10 11.00 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 03 23 – 29 7.00 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Dragons Dec 03 49 – 24 15.70 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Dec 03 31 – 7 28.70 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Dec 03 24 – 27 10.70 FALSE
7 Benetton vs. Ospreys Dec 03 18 – 13 8.30 TRUE
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Dec 03 22 – 24 -8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 23 Glasgow 8.10
2 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 23 Ulster 4.30
3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 23 Benetton -12.80
4 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 Sharks 0.80
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 Bulls -3.00
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 9.40
7 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Ospreys -0.40
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Munster 0.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 5.84 7.24 -1.40
Racing 92 5.30 3.42 1.90
Stade Rochelais 4.84 6.40 -1.60
Bordeaux Begles 4.26 4.07 0.20
Toulon 4.26 3.11 1.10
Stade Francais 3.14 2.62 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.46 -0.39 1.90
Lyon 1.30 2.97 -1.70
Clermont 1.29 1.47 -0.20
Section Paloise 1.16 -0.44 1.60
Bayonne -0.53 -1.32 0.80
Montpellier -0.78 2.09 -2.90
USA Perpignan -6.08 -3.64 -2.40
US Oyonnax -7.87 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Dec 03 34 – 19 5.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 03 29 – 14 5.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Dec 03 23 – 18 2.20 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Dec 03 35 – 6 16.60 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Dec 03 36 – 13 8.60 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 03 23 – 29 -5.60 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 04 27 – 12 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Dec 23 Bordeaux Begles 9.50
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Dec 23 USA Perpignan 0.90
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 Montpellier 4.30
4 Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax Dec 24 Racing 92 19.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Dec 24 Section Paloise 6.40
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 24 Stade Francais 4.80
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Dec 24 Stade Toulousain 8.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.79 6.82 -0.00
Leicester Tigers 6.24 6.13 0.10
Harlequins 4.87 1.93 2.90
Northampton Saints 3.57 2.66 0.90
Bristol 2.88 1.00 1.90
Bath 2.78 -1.26 4.00
Exeter Chiefs 2.44 -0.89 3.30
Sale Sharks 1.67 6.46 -4.80
Gloucester -6.56 -1.45 -5.10
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Dec 02 36 – 3 4.40 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 03 41 – 24 4.10 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Gloucester Dec 03 51 – 26 13.40 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 03 12 – 18 12.40 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 04 47 – 3 22.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Dec 23 Bristol -10.80
2 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Dec 23 Sale Sharks 0.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 24 Exeter Chiefs 2.20
4 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 24 Northampton Saints -4.10
5 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 24 Bath 3.90

 

November 28, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.01 10.73 1.30
Bulls 9.80 9.00 0.80
Munster 9.68 10.54 -0.90
Stormers 6.91 8.93 -2.00
Glasgow 6.79 4.19 2.60
Ulster 5.87 7.80 -1.90
Connacht 1.86 3.17 -1.30
Sharks 0.79 0.85 -0.10
Lions -0.48 -4.26 3.80
Edinburgh -0.81 -2.26 1.40
Benetton -2.10 -5.12 3.00
Cardiff Rugby -4.47 -5.16 0.70
Ospreys -6.44 -7.79 1.40
Scarlets -9.50 -2.23 -7.30
Dragons -12.16 -8.14 -4.00
Zebre -17.74 -20.25 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers Nov 25 31 – 24 -9.90 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Nov 25 22 – 24 6.70 FALSE
3 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Nov 25 31 – 9 2.10 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Zebre Nov 25 61 – 19 17.70 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Connacht Nov 26 53 – 27 9.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Nov 26 69 – 14 10.90 TRUE
7 Leinster vs. Munster Nov 26 21 – 16 4.20 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Ulster Nov 26 33 – 20 3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Glasgow Dec 02 Munster 6.90
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Dec 02 Bulls 11.00
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 03 Cardiff Rugby 7.00
4 Lions vs. Dragons Dec 03 Lions 15.70
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Dec 03 Stormers 28.70
6 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Dec 03 Ulster 10.70
7 Benetton vs. Ospreys Dec 03 Benetton 8.30
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Dec 03 Leinster -8.10

 

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