NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals
Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 13.87 | 12.99 | 0.90 |
Storm | 7.58 | 11.21 | -3.60 |
Broncos | 7.40 | -5.92 | 13.30 |
Roosters | 3.08 | 7.64 | -4.60 |
Sharks | 2.94 | 4.50 | -1.60 |
Cowboys | 2.47 | 6.23 | -3.80 |
Knights | 1.84 | -9.53 | 11.40 |
Warriors | 1.02 | -11.12 | 12.10 |
Rabbitohs | 0.87 | 9.35 | -8.50 |
Eels | 0.14 | 6.78 | -6.60 |
Sea Eagles | -0.48 | -5.26 | 4.80 |
Raiders | -4.31 | 1.98 | -6.30 |
Dragons | -6.93 | -2.73 | -4.20 |
Dolphins | -7.09 | -10.00 | 2.90 |
Titans | -7.89 | -6.32 | -1.60 |
Wests Tigers | -13.15 | -13.52 | 0.40 |
Bulldogs | -13.35 | -8.29 | -5.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 210 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Storm vs. Roosters | Sep 15 | 18 – 13 | 8.20 | TRUE |
2 | Warriors vs. Knights | Sep 16 | 40 – 10 | 2.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Preliminary Finals
Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Broncos vs. Warriors | Sep 22 | Broncos | 12.40 |
2 | Panthers vs. Storm | Sep 23 | Panthers | 9.30 |