Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Bath | 12.76 | 5.55 | 7.20 |
Leicester Tigers | 6.28 | 3.27 | 3.00 |
Sale Sharks | 6.01 | 4.73 | 1.30 |
Saracens | 3.25 | 9.68 | -6.40 |
Gloucester | 1.68 | -9.04 | 10.70 |
Northampton Saints | 0.90 | 7.50 | -6.60 |
Bristol | 0.81 | 9.58 | -8.80 |
Harlequins | -0.16 | -2.73 | 2.60 |
Exeter Chiefs | -3.51 | 1.23 | -4.70 |
Newcastle Falcons | -17.25 | -19.02 | 1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints | Apr 19 | 34 – 35 | -14.30 | TRUE |
2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath | Apr 20 | 24 – 26 | -11.70 | TRUE |
3 | Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks | Apr 20 | 29 – 43 | 3.90 | FALSE |
4 | Saracens vs. Gloucester | Apr 20 | 36 – 14 | 4.60 | TRUE |
5 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Apr 21 | 19 – 36 | 5.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Apr 26 | Sale Sharks | 9.30 |
2 | Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons | Apr 27 | Bath | 36.50 |
3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | Apr 27 | Leicester Tigers | 12.90 |
4 | Northampton Saints vs. Bristol | Apr 27 | Northampton Saints | 6.60 |
5 | Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs | Apr 28 | Gloucester | 11.70 |