Posts filed under Sports statistics (1531)

April 16, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.58 18.86 -4.30
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Chiefs 13.31 13.21 0.10
Hurricanes 12.94 9.73 3.20
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.36 0.07 1.30
Highlanders -0.13 1.17 -1.30
Waratahs -2.05 -1.90 -0.10
Rebels -3.87 -4.59 0.70
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.06 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 17 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 43 – 40 -12.90 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 36 – 23 1.60 TRUE
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 47 – 31 -0.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 Hurricanes -15.30
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Apr 19 Reds 6.50
3 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 20 Blues 11.00
4 Western Force vs. Crusaders Apr 20 Crusaders -17.80

 

NRL Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.72 14.73 -2.00
Broncos 8.12 9.07 -0.90
Storm 5.09 6.15 -1.10
Roosters 4.68 3.08 1.60
Sharks 2.10 2.94 -0.80
Cowboys 2.04 2.47 -0.40
Sea Eagles 1.88 -0.48 2.40
Warriors 1.65 -0.07 1.70
Knights 1.25 1.84 -0.60
Eels -1.50 0.14 -1.60
Raiders -1.65 -4.31 2.70
Dolphins -4.87 -7.09 2.20
Rabbitohs -5.07 0.87 -5.90
Dragons -7.34 -6.93 -0.40
Bulldogs -8.83 -13.35 4.50
Titans -11.08 -7.89 -3.20
Wests Tigers -11.18 -13.15 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Roosters Apr 11 20 – 22 -0.20 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 16 – 14 19.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dolphins Apr 12 28 – 14 16.30 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 22 – 22 7.70 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Apr 13 27 – 20 -1.60 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Apr 13 22 – 34 -3.00 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Apr 14 12 – 24 0.70 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Titans Apr 14 21 – 20 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Apr 18 Roosters 2.60
2 Dragons vs. Warriors Apr 19 Warriors -2.00
3 Eels vs. Dolphins Apr 19 Eels 6.40
4 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 20 Panthers 26.90
5 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Apr 20 Sea Eagles -10.00
6 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 20 Broncos 12.80
7 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 21 Knights -7.10
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 21 Sharks 3.10

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 15.87 13.91 2.00
Brisbane Lions 15.74 17.47 -1.70
GWS Giants 14.07 12.60 1.50
Geelong Cats 14.00 10.50 3.50
Carlton Blues 10.52 9.73 0.80
Port Adelaide Power 9.41 8.83 0.60
Sydney Swans 9.09 9.23 -0.10
Collingwood 8.94 14.87 -5.90
Fremantle Dockers 6.08 0.40 5.70
Western Bulldogs 4.96 6.04 -1.10
Adelaide Crows 4.82 9.56 -4.70
St Kilda Saints 2.86 -0.63 3.50
Gold Coast Suns -2.70 -4.60 1.90
Richmond Tigers -10.08 -6.13 -3.90
Essendon Bombers -12.48 -17.70 5.20
Hawthorn Hawks -17.01 -11.08 -5.90
North Melbourne -30.69 -25.73 -5.00
West Coast Eagles -39.25 -43.10 3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 11 60 – 82 13.70 FALSE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 67 – 96 23.90 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 13 80 – 79 23.30 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 13 98 – 100 17.40 FALSE
5 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 109 – 56 18.90 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 66 – 63 15.00 TRUE
7 Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne Apr 14 139 – 64 50.30 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 14 109 – 70 -28.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 18 Western Bulldogs -2.10
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 19 Adelaide Crows 26.30
3 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Apr 20 Collingwood 8.50
4 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants Apr 20 Carlton Blues 5.50
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Apr 20 Brisbane Lions 10.70
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 20 Fremantle Dockers -45.30
7 Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 21 Sydney Swans 20.80
8 North Melbourne vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 21 Hawthorn Hawks -4.70

 

April 9, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 13.80 13.21 0.60
Blues 13.34 12.20 1.10
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 7.32 6.52 0.80
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.69 -1.90 -0.80
Rebels -4.51 -4.59 0.10
Fijian Drua -7.37 -9.21 1.80
Western Force -8.25 -6.15 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -12.59 -10.80 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 50 – 3 24.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 41 – 20 4.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 68 – 12 27.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 40 – 16 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds Apr 12 Reds -9.50
2 Waratahs vs. Crusaders Apr 12 Crusaders -12.90
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Apr 13 Hurricanes 1.60
4 Rebels vs. Highlanders Apr 13 Highlanders -0.00

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.72 14.73 -2.00
Broncos 8.29 9.07 -0.80
Storm 6.12 6.15 -0.00
Roosters 4.55 3.08 1.50
Cowboys 2.58 2.47 0.10
Warriors 2.14 -0.07 2.20
Sharks 1.54 2.94 -1.40
Sea Eagles 1.39 -0.48 1.90
Knights 1.38 1.84 -0.50
Raiders -0.85 -4.31 3.50
Eels -2.04 0.14 -2.20
Rabbitohs -4.51 0.87 -5.40
Dolphins -5.03 -7.09 2.10
Dragons -8.12 -6.93 -1.20
Bulldogs -9.86 -13.35 3.50
Wests Tigers -10.40 -13.15 2.70
Titans -11.88 -7.89 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Apr 04 34 – 32 0.60 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Roosters Apr 05 30 – 26 -13.50 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 05 30 – 10 11.40 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Apr 06 4 – 34 4.40 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Apr 06 32 – 18 -11.30 FALSE
6 Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 26 – 16 8.10 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 07 35 – 22 18.10 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Eels Apr 07 41 – 8 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Roosters Apr 11 Roosters -0.20
2 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 Storm 19.00
3 Broncos vs. Dolphins Apr 12 Broncos 16.30
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Apr 13 Warriors 7.70
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Apr 13 Cowboys -1.60
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Apr 13 Sharks -3.00
7 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Apr 14 Wests Tigers 0.70
8 Raiders vs. Titans Apr 14 Raiders 14.00

 

AFL Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

A mea culpa this week regarding the predictions. When checking the grounds for the AFL  before posting my predictions, I didn’t use the official AFL site and failed to see that all games were in Adelaide. Consequently I had the home ground advantage wrongly specified for all but three games (the two Adelaide teams and Collingwood v Hawthorn). Thus I incorrectly predicted wins for the Dockers, Bulldogs and Tigers.  I decided to use the correct predictions this week because otherwise my ratings would get messed up for this week’s predictions.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 18.17 13.91 4.30
GWS Giants 15.60 12.60 3.00
Brisbane Lions 13.44 17.47 -4.00
Geelong Cats 12.32 10.50 1.80
Carlton Blues 11.90 9.73 2.20
Port Adelaide Power 10.72 8.83 1.90
Sydney Swans 9.09 9.23 -0.10
Collingwood 8.94 14.87 -5.90
Western Bulldogs 8.17 6.04 2.10
Fremantle Dockers 4.76 0.40 4.40
Adelaide Crows 3.45 9.56 -6.10
St Kilda Saints 1.33 -0.63 2.00
Gold Coast Suns -4.91 -4.60 -0.30
Richmond Tigers -6.16 -6.13 -0.00
Hawthorn Hawks -14.80 -11.08 -3.70
Essendon Bombers -15.68 -17.70 2.00
North Melbourne -29.01 -25.73 -3.30
West Coast Eagles -43.17 -43.10 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 63 – 78 -3.10 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. North Melbourne Apr 05 112 – 42 38.30 TRUE
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 05 111 – 42 30.50 TRUE
4 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Apr 06 78 – 104 -56.30 TRUE
5 Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues Apr 06 63 – 73 -6.30 TRUE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Geelong Cats Apr 06 91 – 95 -4.20 TRUE
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants Apr 07 89 – 117 -18.40 TRUE
8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 07 60 – 67 -7.60 TRUE
9 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 07 77 – 72 26.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 11 Melbourne Demons 13.70
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 Western Bulldogs 23.90
3 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 13 GWS Giants 23.30
4 Carlton Blues vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 13 Carlton Blues 17.40
5 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 Gold Coast Suns 18.90
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 Port Adelaide Power 15.00
7 Geelong Cats vs. North Melbourne Apr 14 Geelong Cats 50.30
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 14 Richmond Tigers -28.00

 

April 2, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.24 10.73 3.50
Bulls 9.42 9.00 0.40
Glasgow 8.29 4.19 4.10
Munster 7.88 10.54 -2.70
Stormers 6.35 8.93 -2.60
Ulster 3.63 7.80 -4.20
Lions 2.67 -4.26 6.90
Connacht 1.02 3.17 -2.10
Sharks -0.25 0.85 -1.10
Edinburgh -1.92 -2.26 0.30
Ospreys -2.19 -7.79 5.60
Cardiff Rugby -2.50 -5.16 2.70
Benetton -3.73 -5.12 1.40
Scarlets -12.59 -2.23 -10.40
Dragons -14.55 -8.14 -6.40
Zebre -15.77 -20.25 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Zebre Mar 30 20 – 13 4.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Bulls Mar 30 47 – 14 4.80 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Connacht Mar 30 18 – 14 -1.90 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Edinburgh Mar 30 23 – 13 4.60 TRUE
5 Ospreys vs. Lions Mar 31 36 – 21 -3.60 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Ulster Mar 31 13 – 7 6.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 31 20 – 15 16.10 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 31 3 – 45 -12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Sharks Apr 20 Glasgow 12.50
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 Ulster 10.10
3 Benetton vs. Dragons Apr 21 Benetton 14.80
4 Lions vs. Leinster Apr 21 Leinster -7.60
5 Bulls vs. Munster Apr 21 Bulls 5.50
6 Stormers vs. Ospreys Apr 21 Stormers 12.50
7 Connacht vs. Zebre Apr 21 Connacht 20.80
8 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Apr 21 Edinburgh 14.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.14 7.24 -0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.96 6.40 -0.40
Toulon 5.45 3.11 2.30
Stade Francais 3.51 2.62 0.90
Racing 92 3.44 3.42 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.29 4.07 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.80 -0.44 1.20
Castres Olympique 0.03 -0.39 0.40
Montpellier -0.06 2.09 -2.20
Lyon -0.29 2.97 -3.30
Clermont -0.37 1.47 -1.80
Bayonne -0.97 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -2.27 -3.64 1.40
US Oyonnax -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 27 – 10 1.90 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 31 10 – 12 3.50 FALSE
3 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Mar 31 26 – 10 9.70 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. US Oyonnax Mar 31 40 – 21 20.70 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 31 31 – 29 13.60 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Mar 31 43 – 12 2.50 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Toulon Apr 01 10 – 46 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 21 Castres Olympique 0.60
2 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Apr 21 Section Paloise 7.40
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Apr 21 Stade Francais 11.00
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 21 Toulon 4.80
5 US Oyonnax vs. Racing 92 Apr 21 Racing 92 -5.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Apr 21 USA Perpignan 4.50
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Apr 22 Bordeaux Begles 10.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.22 18.86 -3.60
Chiefs 12.78 13.21 -0.40
Blues 12.51 12.20 0.30
Hurricanes 12.45 9.73 2.70
Brumbies 6.80 6.52 0.30
Reds 1.88 0.07 1.80
Highlanders 0.51 1.17 -0.70
Waratahs -2.18 -1.90 -0.30
Rebels -5.17 -4.59 -0.60
Fijian Drua -6.71 -9.21 2.50
Western Force -7.41 -6.15 -1.30
Moana Pasifika -11.56 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 37 – 26 4.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 21 – 27 7.10 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 31 – 13 2.40 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 8 – 47 -19.60 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 12 – 47 -6.90 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 19 – 20 -2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Western Force Apr 05 Blues 24.90
2 Rebels vs. Fijian Drua Apr 05 Rebels 4.50
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 06 Chiefs 27.30
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Brumbies 12.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.43 6.82 1.60
Bristol 6.08 1.00 5.10
Leicester Tigers 4.13 6.13 -2.00
Northampton Saints 3.21 2.66 0.60
Bath 2.42 -1.26 3.70
Sale Sharks 1.66 6.46 -4.80
Harlequins 0.83 1.93 -1.10
Exeter Chiefs -0.97 -0.89 -0.10
Gloucester -2.84 -1.45 -1.40
Newcastle Falcons -12.21 -10.63 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 31 24 – 33 -1.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Mar 31 40 – 36 4.50 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 31 13 – 19 -11.30 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Mar 31 41 – 30 -1.40 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 31 41 – 5 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 21 Bristol 24.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 21 Exeter Chiefs 2.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Northampton Saints 5.10
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 21 Saracens 17.30
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Apr 22 Sale Sharks 6.80

 

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