NRL Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 11.83 | 14.73 | -2.90 |
Broncos | 9.30 | 9.07 | 0.20 |
Storm | 6.85 | 6.15 | 0.70 |
Roosters | 6.18 | 3.08 | 3.10 |
Sharks | 6.18 | 2.94 | 3.20 |
Sea Eagles | 1.88 | -0.48 | 2.40 |
Cowboys | 0.31 | 2.47 | -2.20 |
Knights | -0.28 | 1.84 | -2.10 |
Warriors | -0.83 | -0.07 | -0.80 |
Dolphins | -3.16 | -7.09 | 3.90 |
Eels | -3.90 | 0.14 | -4.00 |
Raiders | -4.49 | -4.31 | -0.20 |
Rabbitohs | -6.30 | 0.87 | -7.20 |
Bulldogs | -6.99 | -13.35 | 6.40 |
Dragons | -8.17 | -6.93 | -1.20 |
Titans | -9.43 | -7.89 | -1.50 |
Wests Tigers | -10.99 | -13.15 | 2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 64 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Warriors vs. Titans | Apr 25 | 24 – 27 | 18.10 | FALSE |
2 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Apr 25 | 18 – 60 | -7.30 | TRUE |
3 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 25 | 54 – 20 | 13.70 | TRUE |
4 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Apr 26 | 32 – 18 | 8.00 | TRUE |
5 | Wests Tigers vs. Broncos | Apr 27 | 10 – 34 | -16.30 | TRUE |
6 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Apr 27 | 20 – 26 | -8.90 | TRUE |
7 | Dolphins vs. Knights | Apr 28 | 14 – 18 | 0.70 | FALSE |
8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Apr 28 | 0 – 40 | -3.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rabbitohs vs. Panthers | May 02 | Panthers | -15.10 |
2 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | May 03 | Sea Eagles | 9.40 |
3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | May 03 | Broncos | 6.10 |
4 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | May 04 | Bulldogs | 7.00 |
5 | Titans vs. Storm | May 04 | Storm | -13.30 |
6 | Cowboys vs. Dolphins | May 04 | Cowboys | 6.50 |
7 | Knights vs. Warriors | May 05 | Knights | 7.60 |
8 | Sharks vs. Dragons | May 05 | Sharks | 17.30 |