Posts filed under Sports statistics (1479)

May 13, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 11.60 6.82 4.80
Northampton Saints 10.14 2.66 7.50
Bristol 7.65 1.00 6.70
Bath 2.99 -1.26 4.30
Sale Sharks 2.72 6.46 -3.70
Exeter Chiefs 2.30 -0.89 3.20
Leicester Tigers 2.21 6.13 -3.90
Harlequins -0.80 1.93 -2.70
Gloucester -11.48 -1.45 -10.00
Newcastle Falcons -16.58 -10.63 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath May 11 17 – 28 -14.20 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 11 31 – 22 5.90 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Saracens May 12 20 – 41 6.70 FALSE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins May 12 58 – 26 4.40 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 12 90 – 0 15.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints May 19 Northampton Saints -1.10
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons May 19 Gloucester 11.10
3 Harlequins vs. Bristol May 19 Bristol -2.40
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Leicester Tigers 5.90
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks May 19 Saracens 14.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.73 14.73 -3.00
Roosters 8.13 3.08 5.00
Broncos 8.11 9.07 -1.00
Sharks 6.36 2.94 3.40
Storm 5.50 6.15 -0.70
Sea Eagles 0.75 -0.48 1.20
Knights -0.69 1.84 -2.50
Cowboys -0.70 2.47 -3.20
Warriors -1.01 -0.07 -0.90
Dolphins -2.19 -7.09 4.90
Raiders -3.79 -4.31 0.50
Eels -4.37 0.14 -4.50
Bulldogs -5.91 -13.35 7.40
Dragons -6.99 -6.93 -0.10
Rabbitohs -7.92 0.87 -8.80
Titans -8.25 -7.89 -0.40
Wests Tigers -10.76 -13.15 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles May 09 30 – 24 -0.80 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 10 16 – 10 22.70 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Broncos May 10 14 – 30 -8.50 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 11 14 – 20 -10.70 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 11 28 – 14 2.50 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Sharks May 11 18 – 25 3.40 FALSE
7 Roosters vs. Warriors May 12 38 – 18 15.60 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys May 12 20 – 18 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs May 17 Raiders 2.10
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 17 Broncos -10.40
3 Titans vs. Knights May 18 Knights -7.60
4 Sharks vs. Roosters May 18 Roosters -1.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys May 18 Cowboys -7.20
6 Warriors vs. Panthers May 19 Panthers -12.70
7 Storm vs. Eels May 19 Storm 9.90
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins May 19 Dolphins -11.60

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 19.07 9.23 9.80
Melbourne Demons 16.66 13.91 2.80
Geelong Cats 16.42 10.50 5.90
Brisbane Lions 12.06 17.47 -5.40
GWS Giants 11.73 12.60 -0.90
Collingwood 11.40 14.87 -3.50
Carlton Blues 10.34 9.73 0.60
Western Bulldogs 8.92 6.04 2.90
Adelaide Crows 6.45 9.56 -3.10
Port Adelaide Power 6.33 8.83 -2.50
Fremantle Dockers 3.00 0.40 2.60
St Kilda Saints -0.86 -0.63 -0.20
Gold Coast Suns -3.59 -4.60 1.00
Essendon Bombers -7.47 -17.70 10.20
Hawthorn Hawks -14.12 -11.08 -3.00
Richmond Tigers -19.51 -6.13 -13.40
West Coast Eagles -34.72 -43.10 8.40
North Melbourne -37.95 -25.73 -12.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons May 09 77 – 76 -8.40 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power May 10 95 – 101 22.90 FALSE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 39 – 87 -1.30 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints May 11 58 – 53 -6.90 FALSE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants May 11 82 – 62 -14.70 FALSE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne May 11 120 – 52 29.50 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs May 11 42 – 133 -10.20 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 12 103 – 37 52.10 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions May 12 90 – 90 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats May 16 Geelong Cats -20.00
2 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues May 17 Sydney Swans 17.70
3 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows May 18 Collingwood 14.00
4 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs May 18 GWS Giants 11.80
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Richmond Tigers May 18 Brisbane Lions 40.60
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 18 St Kilda Saints 5.10
7 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 19 Essendon Bombers 30.50
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 19 Port Adelaide Power 29.40
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 19 Melbourne Demons -42.40
10 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Sydney Swans -1.10

 

May 7, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.89 12.20 2.70
Chiefs 14.59 13.21 1.40
Hurricanes 13.25 9.73 3.50
Crusaders 13.10 18.86 -5.80
Brumbies 6.32 6.52 -0.20
Reds 3.09 0.07 3.00
Highlanders -1.23 1.17 -2.40
Waratahs -2.84 -1.90 -0.90
Rebels -5.09 -4.59 -0.50
Western Force -7.36 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -7.46 -9.21 1.80
Moana Pasifika -12.15 -10.80 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs May 03 41 – 12 20.30 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 03 11 – 38 -13.90 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders May 04 17 – 28 -7.40 TRUE
4 Crusaders vs. Reds May 04 28 – 33 16.60 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 04 56 – 7 25.20 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua May 04 28 – 20 17.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs May 10 Chiefs -23.70
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 10 Reds 11.20
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 11 Blues 4.60
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders May 11 Crusaders -11.30
5 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 11 Brumbies -6.20
6 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 11 Western Force 3.10

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.74 14.73 -2.00
Roosters 7.84 3.08 4.80
Broncos 7.64 9.07 -1.40
Storm 6.15 6.15 -0.00
Sharks 5.71 2.94 2.80
Sea Eagles 1.18 -0.48 1.70
Cowboys -0.22 2.47 -2.70
Knights -0.38 1.84 -2.20
Warriors -0.72 -0.07 -0.60
Dolphins -2.63 -7.09 4.50
Raiders -3.79 -4.31 0.50
Eels -3.90 0.14 -4.00
Bulldogs -6.92 -13.35 6.40
Rabbitohs -7.20 0.87 -8.10
Dragons -7.71 -6.93 -0.80
Titans -8.73 -7.89 -0.80
Wests Tigers -11.06 -13.15 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers May 02 12 – 42 -15.10 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders May 03 24 – 26 9.40 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters May 03 18 – 40 6.10 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers May 04 22 – 14 7.00 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Storm May 04 20 – 22 -13.30 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Dolphins May 04 26 – 28 6.50 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Warriors May 05 14 – 8 7.60 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Dragons May 05 20 – 10 17.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Sea Eagles May 09 Sea Eagles -0.80
2 Panthers vs. Bulldogs May 10 Panthers 22.70
3 Eels vs. Broncos May 10 Broncos -8.50
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 11 Knights -10.70
5 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs May 11 Dragons 2.50
6 Storm vs. Sharks May 11 Storm 3.40
7 Roosters vs. Warriors May 12 Roosters 15.60
8 Titans vs. Cowboys May 12 Cowboys -5.50

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 18.35 10.50 7.90
Melbourne Demons 17.70 13.91 3.80
Sydney Swans 16.18 9.23 7.00
GWS Giants 13.97 12.60 1.40
Brisbane Lions 11.59 17.47 -5.90
Collingwood 9.87 14.87 -5.00
Carlton Blues 9.30 9.73 -0.40
Adelaide Crows 6.93 9.56 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 5.89 0.40 5.50
Port Adelaide Power 4.41 8.83 -4.40
Western Bulldogs 4.32 6.04 -1.70
St Kilda Saints 0.44 -0.63 1.10
Gold Coast Suns -6.04 -4.60 -1.40
Essendon Bombers -9.71 -17.70 8.00
Richmond Tigers -14.92 -6.13 -8.80
Hawthorn Hawks -15.42 -11.08 -4.30
West Coast Eagles -33.19 -43.10 9.90
North Melbourne -35.50 -25.73 -9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power May 02 78 – 48 -1.60 FALSE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood May 03 79 – 85 1.00 FALSE
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 98 – 69 8.30 TRUE
4 St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne May 04 103 – 65 35.40 TRUE
5 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats May 04 74 – 66 8.40 TRUE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 04 71 – 77 -16.90 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 05 49 – 103 -5.90 TRUE
8 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 05 91 – 98 33.90 FALSE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 05 79 – 45 24.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons May 09 Melbourne Demons -8.40
2 Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power May 10 Geelong Cats 22.90
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans May 10 Sydney Swans -1.30
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. St Kilda Saints May 11 St Kilda Saints -6.90
5 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants May 11 GWS Giants -14.70
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. North Melbourne May 11 Gold Coast Suns 29.50
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Western Bulldogs May 11 Western Bulldogs -10.20
8 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 12 Collingwood 52.10
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions May 12 Adelaide Crows 4.30

 

April 30, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.31 9.00 1.30
Munster 10.24 10.54 -0.30
Leinster 9.20 10.73 -1.50
Glasgow 8.91 4.19 4.70
Stormers 7.27 8.93 -1.70
Lions 3.88 -4.26 8.10
Ulster 2.32 7.80 -5.50
Connacht 1.71 3.17 -1.50
Edinburgh 0.40 -2.26 2.70
Sharks -0.52 0.85 -1.40
Ospreys -2.52 -7.79 5.30
Benetton -2.87 -5.12 2.20
Cardiff Rugby -3.34 -5.16 1.80
Scarlets -12.97 -2.23 -10.70
Dragons -14.16 -8.14 -6.00
Zebre -17.84 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Sharks Apr 27 27 – 32 -9.30 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Apr 27 38 – 34 10.50 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 27 9 – 40 -21.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Apr 28 61 – 24 13.40 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Apr 28 7 – 24 3.30 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Munster Apr 28 13 – 33 0.70 FALSE
7 Stormers vs. Leinster Apr 28 42 – 12 -2.50 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Apr 28 27 – 34 -13.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Stormers May 11 Stormers -17.40
2 Edinburgh vs. Zebre May 11 Edinburgh 22.20
3 Bulls vs. Glasgow May 12 Bulls 5.40
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster May 12 Ulster -11.30
5 Sharks vs. Benetton May 12 Sharks 6.30
6 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby May 12 Lions 11.20
7 Munster vs. Connacht May 12 Munster 10.50
8 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 12 Leinster 15.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.69 7.24 0.50
Stade Rochelais 6.07 6.40 -0.30
Toulon 5.11 3.11 2.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.69 4.07 0.60
Racing 92 3.84 3.42 0.40
Stade Francais 2.50 2.62 -0.10
Section Paloise 0.38 -0.44 0.80
Castres Olympique -0.22 -0.39 0.20
Clermont -0.45 1.47 -1.90
Montpellier -0.53 2.09 -2.60
Lyon -0.64 2.97 -3.60
USA Perpignan -1.02 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.28 -1.32 0.00
US Oyonnax -8.54 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 28 15 – 34 1.90 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Apr 28 38 – 20 4.60 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 28 20 – 25 7.90 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Apr 28 27 – 17 7.20 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Apr 28 32 – 12 9.60 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique Apr 28 22 – 19 -2.40 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Apr 29 41 – 18 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais May 12 Bordeaux Begles 5.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 12 Castres Olympique 6.80
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 12 Racing 92 11.60
4 Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax May 12 Section Paloise 15.40
5 Toulon vs. Lyon May 12 Toulon 12.30
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont May 12 USA Perpignan 5.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais May 13 Stade Toulousain 11.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.34 12.20 2.10
Crusaders 13.91 18.86 -4.90
Chiefs 13.71 13.21 0.50
Hurricanes 12.86 9.73 3.10
Brumbies 6.75 6.52 0.20
Reds 2.27 0.07 2.20
Highlanders -1.48 1.17 -2.60
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -4.54 -4.59 0.10
Western Force -6.47 -6.15 -0.30
Fijian Drua -7.89 -9.21 1.30
Moana Pasifika -11.90 -10.80 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Rebels Apr 26 39 – 0 22.10 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 26 22 – 38 -10.40 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 27 24 – 17 9.30 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 27 27 – 19 -2.00 FALSE
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Apr 27 7 – 6 10.90 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Blues Apr 27 34 – 41 -7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs May 03 Hurricanes 20.30
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 03 Blues -13.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders May 04 Highlanders -7.40
4 Crusaders vs. Reds May 04 Crusaders 16.60
5 Chiefs vs. Western Force May 04 Chiefs 25.20
6 Brumbies vs. Fijian Drua May 04 Brumbies 17.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 10.00 1.00 9.00
Saracens 9.25 6.82 2.40
Northampton Saints 4.14 2.66 1.50
Bath 3.31 -1.26 4.60
Leicester Tigers 2.52 6.13 -3.60
Sale Sharks 2.41 6.46 -4.10
Harlequins 1.54 1.93 -0.40
Exeter Chiefs -0.04 -0.89 0.80
Gloucester -5.48 -1.45 -4.00
Newcastle Falcons -16.90 -10.63 -6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Saracens Apr 28 12 – 15 0.80 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 17 – 38 5.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Apr 28 41 – 32 2.20 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol Apr 28 19 – 21 -1.40 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Apr 28 14 – 35 -11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath May 11 Bath -14.20
2 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 11 Sale Sharks 5.90
3 Bristol vs. Saracens May 12 Bristol 6.70
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins May 12 Exeter Chiefs 4.40
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 12 Northampton Saints 15.60

 

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