Posts filed under Sports statistics (1525)

August 26, 2024

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.26 -0.48 8.70
Lions 7.21 -4.44 11.60
Sharks 3.64 0.96 2.70
Cheetahs 3.45 6.37 -2.90
Pumas -1.22 4.30 -5.50
Western Province -1.89 0.59 -2.50
Griquas -5.15 -2.59 -2.60
Griffons -24.30 -14.70 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 24 47 – 24 15.40 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 24 23 – 31 -0.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 25 21 – 38 3.40 FALSE
4 Griffons vs. Pumas Aug 25 26 – 45 -19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 Cheetahs -5.10
2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 Bulls 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 Sharks 31.40
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 Western Province 2.80

 

August 20, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.72 3.08 5.60
Panthers 8.62 14.73 -6.10
Storm 7.50 6.15 1.30
Sharks 5.77 2.94 2.80
Sea Eagles 5.58 -0.48 6.10
Cowboys 1.58 2.47 -0.90
Bulldogs 1.31 -13.35 14.70
Broncos 0.83 9.07 -8.20
Warriors -2.81 -0.07 -2.70
Knights -3.23 1.84 -5.10
Dolphins -3.61 -7.09 3.50
Rabbitohs -4.34 0.87 -5.20
Dragons -4.43 -6.93 2.50
Eels -5.59 0.14 -5.70
Titans -6.36 -7.89 1.50
Raiders -7.92 -4.31 -3.60
Wests Tigers -13.61 -13.15 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 15 22 – 24 5.00 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 16 24 – 10 15.60 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 16 38 – 14 16.30 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Aug 17 30 – 10 2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 17 42 – 4 9.10 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 17 18 – 16 -7.40 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 18 32 – 16 3.40 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 18 19 – 18 13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Sea Eagles -16.20
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 Warriors 2.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 23 Broncos 9.40
4 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 24 Panthers -13.50
5 Storm vs. Dolphins Aug 24 Storm 14.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 24 Rabbitohs 1.90
7 Titans vs. Roosters Aug 25 Roosters -12.10
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 25 Sharks -7.20

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.46 10.63 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.48 6.09 -0.60
Taranaki 5.38 5.21 0.20
Waikato 5.12 5.30 -0.20
Canterbury 4.92 6.01 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 3.59 3.52 0.10
Tasman 3.26 2.17 1.10
North Harbour 3.00 3.06 -0.10
Auckland 2.37 3.00 -0.60
Otago -2.62 -3.26 0.60
Northland -4.34 -4.29 -0.10
Counties Manukau -5.04 -5.22 0.20
Southland -9.43 -10.05 0.60
Manawatu -18.68 -18.73 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Auckland Aug 16 27 – 25 -3.30 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 35 – 18 17.40 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 22 – 7 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 17 31 – 17 19.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 18 24 – 20 3.50 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 18 26 – 19 8.40 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 18 20 – 26 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 Hawke’s Bay 12.80
2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 Tasman -5.30
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 Auckland 0.50
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 Taranaki -11.80
5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 Bay of Plenty -3.20
6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 Wellington 32.10
7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 North Harbour 0.90
8 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Canterbury 2.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 25

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Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 18.37 6.04 12.30
Brisbane Lions 17.93 17.47 0.50
Sydney Swans 15.21 9.23 6.00
Hawthorn Hawks 14.48 -11.08 25.60
Port Adelaide Power 12.74 8.83 3.90
GWS Giants 11.36 12.60 -1.20
Geelong Cats 7.29 10.50 -3.20
Carlton Blues 7.13 9.73 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 6.94 0.40 6.50
Adelaide Crows 4.37 9.56 -5.20
Melbourne Demons 3.97 13.91 -9.90
Collingwood 3.88 14.87 -11.00
St Kilda Saints -0.80 -0.63 -0.20
Gold Coast Suns -8.27 -4.60 -3.70
Essendon Bombers -11.65 -17.70 6.00
Richmond Tigers -29.72 -6.13 -23.60
West Coast Eagles -33.88 -43.10 9.20
North Melbourne -35.18 -25.73 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 59 – 98 -14.50 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 17 63 – 117 3.70 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 17 101 – 92 14.70 TRUE
4 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 17 79 – 78 -6.80 FALSE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 17 80 – 58 4.50 TRUE
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 107 – 89 -1.90 FALSE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 18 138 – 42 47.60 TRUE
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 18 131 – 68 41.20 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Aug 18 34 – 99 -27.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Aug 23 Melbourne Demons 0.10
2 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 24 Geelong Cats 50.20
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 24 Gold Coast Suns -12.40
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 24 Hawthorn Hawks 58.70
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 24 Brisbane Lions 38.60
6 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 24 Sydney Swans 19.80
7 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Aug 25 Western Bulldogs 16.00
8 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 25 Carlton Blues 7.90
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 25 Fremantle Dockers 3.20

 

August 13, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.07 14.73 -5.70
Roosters 8.24 3.08 5.20
Storm 7.06 6.15 0.90
Sharks 6.54 2.94 3.60
Sea Eagles 5.70 -0.48 6.20
Broncos 0.83 9.07 -8.20
Bulldogs 0.26 -13.35 13.60
Cowboys -0.13 2.47 -2.60
Dolphins -2.57 -7.09 4.50
Warriors -2.92 -0.07 -2.80
Rabbitohs -3.75 0.87 -4.60
Knights -4.01 1.84 -5.80
Eels -5.11 0.14 -5.20
Dragons -5.21 -6.93 1.70
Titans -5.58 -7.89 2.30
Raiders -6.21 -4.31 -1.90
Wests Tigers -14.20 -13.15 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 08 16 – 28 -7.20 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 09 0 – 44 -4.50 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 09 34 – 36 -12.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 24 – 46 -7.10 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 10 18 – 42 5.50 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 10 – 28 -0.30 TRUE
7 Dolphins vs. Warriors Aug 11 34 – 32 8.10 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 11 34 – 18 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 15 Panthers 5.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 16 Sea Eagles 15.60
3 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 16 Roosters 16.30
4 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Aug 17 Bulldogs 2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 17 Cowboys 9.10
6 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 17 Rabbitohs -7.40
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 18 Dragons 3.40
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 18 Sharks 13.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.04 10.63 0.40
Hawke’s Bay 7.17 6.09 1.10
Canterbury 5.98 6.01 -0.00
Taranaki 5.52 5.21 0.30
Bay of Plenty 4.83 3.52 1.30
Waikato 3.99 5.30 -1.30
Tasman 3.22 2.17 1.10
Auckland 2.60 3.00 -0.40
North Harbour 1.99 3.06 -1.10
Otago -4.18 -3.26 -0.90
Northland -4.25 -4.29 0.00
Counties Manukau -5.53 -5.22 -0.30
Southland -9.13 -10.05 0.90
Manawatu -19.78 -18.73 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 09 31 – 15 13.40 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Wellington Aug 09 21 – 29 -4.60 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 10 34 – 21 13.30 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 10 22 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 10 21 – 36 4.80 FALSE
6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 32 – 41 -0.00 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 11 21 – 54 -17.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Auckland Aug 16 Auckland -3.80
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 Northland 18.50
3 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 Tasman 0.20
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 17 Hawke’s Bay 19.30
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 18 Bay of Plenty 5.80
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 18 Wellington 8.50
7 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 18 Waikato -6.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 6.49 6.37 0.10
Bulls 6.29 -0.48 6.80
Lions 4.37 -4.44 8.80
Sharks 1.68 0.96 0.70
Pumas 0.10 4.30 -4.20
Western Province -0.12 0.59 -0.70
Griquas -7.92 -2.59 -5.30
Griffons -20.88 -14.70 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 10 55 – 12 0.80 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Griffons Aug 11 55 – 21 29.60 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 19 – 26 -1.90 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 11 40 – 21 11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Aug 17 Bulls -2.70
2 Lions vs. Western Province Aug 17 Lions 8.00
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Aug 18 Cheetahs 8.30
4 Griffons vs. Griquas Aug 18 Griquas -9.50

 

AFL Predictions for Week 24

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Team Ratings for Week 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 18.79 17.47 1.30
Western Bulldogs 15.39 6.04 9.40
Sydney Swans 13.55 9.23 4.30
Hawthorn Hawks 12.96 -11.08 24.00
GWS Giants 11.98 12.60 -0.60
Port Adelaide Power 10.81 8.83 2.00
Geelong Cats 8.69 10.50 -1.80
Fremantle Dockers 6.32 0.40 5.90
Adelaide Crows 6.30 9.56 -3.30
Carlton Blues 4.71 9.73 -5.00
Collingwood 3.02 14.87 -11.80
Melbourne Demons 0.52 13.91 -13.40
St Kilda Saints -2.20 -0.63 -1.60
Gold Coast Suns -4.82 -4.60 -0.20
Essendon Bombers -9.98 -17.70 7.70
Richmond Tigers -28.20 -6.13 -22.10
West Coast Eagles -31.47 -43.10 11.60
North Melbourne -32.21 -25.73 -6.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 189 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Aug 09 89 – 86 22.20 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Aug 10 64 – 82 20.70 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 10 97 – 102 12.00 FALSE
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 10 62 – 73 9.50 FALSE
5 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 10 86 – 87 5.20 FALSE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 10 51 – 53 -1.10 TRUE
7 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 11 38 – 112 0.30 FALSE
8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 11 51 – 99 -31.30 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 11 111 – 72 -5.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 Sydney Swans -14.50
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 17 Gold Coast Suns 3.70
3 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 17 GWS Giants 14.70
4 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 17 Brisbane Lions -6.80
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 17 Port Adelaide Power 4.50
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 Geelong Cats -1.90
7 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 18 Western Bulldogs 47.60
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 18 Hawthorn Hawks 41.20
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Aug 18 Carlton Blues -27.20

 

August 6, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.72 14.73 -5.00
Roosters 8.24 3.08 5.20
Storm 6.74 6.15 0.60
Sea Eagles 4.78 -0.48 5.30
Sharks 4.24 2.94 1.30
Cowboys 1.62 2.47 -0.80
Bulldogs -0.81 -13.35 12.50
Broncos -0.91 9.07 -10.00
Dolphins -2.17 -7.09 4.90
Titans -3.28 -7.89 4.60
Warriors -3.31 -0.07 -3.20
Rabbitohs -3.44 0.87 -4.30
Dragons -4.14 -6.93 2.80
Knights -4.22 1.84 -6.10
Raiders -5.30 -4.31 -1.00
Eels -5.76 0.14 -5.90
Wests Tigers -13.98 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 22 – 48 -10.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 02 20 – 30 12.10 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 02 34 – 40 -11.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 03 46 – 18 -3.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Dragons Aug 03 16 – 18 16.10 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 20 – 6 10.20 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 04 22 – 14 18.20 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Aug 04 22 – 18 8.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 08 Storm -7.20
2 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 09 Sharks -4.50
3 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 09 Panthers -12.50
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 Sea Eagles -7.10
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 10 Cowboys 5.50
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 Bulldogs -0.30
7 Dolphins vs. Warriors Aug 11 Dolphins 8.10
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 11 Knights 12.80

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.63 10.63 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 6.09 6.09 -0.00
Canterbury 6.01 6.01 -0.00
Waikato 5.30 5.30 -0.00
Taranaki 5.21 5.21 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 3.52 3.52 -0.00
North Harbour 3.06 3.06 -0.00
Auckland 3.00 3.00 -0.00
Tasman 2.17 2.17 0.00
Otago -3.26 -3.26 -0.00
Northland -4.29 -4.29 -0.00
Counties Manukau -5.22 -5.22 -0.00
Southland -10.05 -10.05 -0.00
Manawatu -18.73 -18.73 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 09 Taranaki 13.40
2 Auckland vs. Wellington Aug 09 Wellington -4.60
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 10 Canterbury 13.30
4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 10 Otago -3.80
5 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 10 Waikato 4.80
6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -0.00
7 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 11 Tasman -17.90
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 11.70

 

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