NRL Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Panthers | 10.91 | 14.73 | -3.80 |
Roosters | 7.83 | 3.08 | 4.70 |
Storm | 6.01 | 6.15 | -0.10 |
Broncos | 5.32 | 9.07 | -3.70 |
Sharks | 4.33 | 2.94 | 1.40 |
Sea Eagles | 2.02 | -0.48 | 2.50 |
Warriors | 1.76 | -0.07 | 1.80 |
Cowboys | -2.03 | 2.47 | -4.50 |
Dolphins | -2.28 | -7.09 | 4.80 |
Bulldogs | -2.40 | -13.35 | 11.00 |
Knights | -2.77 | 1.84 | -4.60 |
Raiders | -4.40 | -4.31 | -0.10 |
Dragons | -4.47 | -6.93 | 2.50 |
Rabbitohs | -4.74 | 0.87 | -5.60 |
Eels | -5.25 | 0.14 | -5.40 |
Titans | -8.95 | -7.89 | -1.10 |
Wests Tigers | -12.89 | -13.15 | 0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 108 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 07 | 56 – 14 | 7.40 | TRUE |
2 | Titans vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 08 | 12 – 46 | 3.10 | FALSE |
3 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Jun 08 | 12 – 42 | 7.60 | FALSE |
4 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Jun 08 | 12 – 22 | 5.90 | FALSE |
5 | Storm vs. Knights | Jun 09 | 36 – 28 | 12.30 | TRUE |
6 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 09 | 32 – 22 | 12.20 | TRUE |
7 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Jun 10 | 22 – 18 | 6.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sharks vs. Dolphins | Jun 13 | Sharks | 9.60 |
2 | Raiders vs. Cowboys | Jun 14 | Raiders | 0.60 |
3 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | Jun 14 | Broncos | -7.10 |
4 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Jun 15 | Titans | -0.90 |
5 | Warriors vs. Storm | Jun 15 | Warriors | 2.80 |
6 | Eels vs. Roosters | Jun 15 | Roosters | -10.10 |
7 | Sea Eagles vs. Dragons | Jun 16 | Sea Eagles | 9.50 |
8 | Knights vs. Panthers | Jun 16 | Panthers | -10.70 |