United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 13.93 | 12.09 | 1.80 |
Bulls | 9.42 | 8.83 | 0.60 |
Glasgow | 8.91 | 9.39 | -0.50 |
Munster | 4.78 | 9.28 | -4.50 |
Stormers | 4.04 | 6.75 | -2.70 |
Sharks | 1.94 | -2.94 | 4.90 |
Edinburgh | 1.30 | 0.09 | 1.20 |
Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
Lions | -0.12 | 6.73 | -6.80 |
Connacht | -0.68 | -0.76 | 0.10 |
Ulster | -1.45 | 2.52 | -4.00 |
Benetton | -2.48 | 1.02 | -3.50 |
Cardiff Rugby | -2.69 | -2.55 | -0.10 |
Ospreys | -3.24 | -2.51 | -0.70 |
Scarlets | -3.45 | -10.65 | 7.20 |
Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
Zebre | -9.11 | -16.17 | 7.10 |
Dragons | -15.39 | -15.41 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Edinburgh vs. Sharks | Apr 19 | 17 – 18 | 6.50 | FALSE |
2 | Lions vs. Benetton | Apr 19 | 31 – 42 | 10.90 | FALSE |
3 | Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 20 | 19 – 36 | 5.00 | FALSE |
4 | Stormers vs. Connacht | Apr 20 | 34 – 29 | 11.70 | TRUE |
5 | Munster vs. Bulls | Apr 20 | 13 – 16 | 1.90 | FALSE |
6 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Apr 20 | 23 – 31 | -9.80 | TRUE |
7 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Apr 20 | 41 – 17 | 16.10 | TRUE |
8 | Zebre vs. Glasgow | Apr 20 | 6 – 14 | -13.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster | Apr 26 | Munster | -2.00 |
2 | Glasgow vs. Bulls | Apr 26 | Glasgow | 5.00 |
3 | Lions vs. Connacht | Apr 27 | Lions | 6.10 |
4 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Apr 27 | Ospreys | 14.70 |
5 | Scarlets vs. Leinster | Apr 27 | Leinster | -11.90 |
6 | Stormers vs. Benetton | Apr 27 | Stormers | 12.00 |
7 | Ulster vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | Ulster | 2.10 |
8 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Apr 27 | Edinburgh | -4.90 |