Posts filed under General (2829)

February 19, 2025

Low-flying rocks

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As you have probably heard, a modest-sized asteroid will pass really quite close to the earth in seven years. Perhaps very close. Maybe even closer than that. If this happens, it won’t be civilisation-destroying but could be locally devastating. The main StatsChat relevant issue is that the probability of the asteroid hitting the earth keeps going up: 1.4%, 2.2%, 3.1%.  Why is it getting consistently higher? Does that mean we can expect it will keep going up?

Most likely, the probability will keep going up for a while, then suddenly plunge to zero — though it might keep going up and up to 100%.  The sudden plunge to zero and the increase before that point happen for the same reason.    Because of our limited measurements so far, we know only approximately where the asteroid will be in seven years’ time.  You can think of a little moving cloud of possible asteroid positions in space. At the moment, the cloud of possible positions intersects where the Earth will be, but the Earth is a pretty small target (Space is big. Really big.)

As we get more precise information (for example, from the Webb Space Telescope) the cloud of possible positions gets smaller.  If the cloud still intersects the Earth’s position, the smaller cloud of possibilities means the probability of impact goes up.  If it doesn’t still intersect the Earth’s position, the probability of impact drops to zero.

If the randomness in predictions is approximately correct in some consistent way, the predicted average value of the estimate should stay the same over time (the technical term is ‘martingale’). The chance that the estimate has gone to zero will go up over time, so the estimate in scenarios where it doesn’t go to zero must also go up over time.

Update: it’s down to 0.36%
Update: and now down to 0.0022%. Asteroid goneburger.

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February 18, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 12.09 2.60
Glasgow 9.33 9.39 -0.10
Bulls 7.59 8.83 -1.20
Munster 5.60 9.28 -3.70
Lions 3.97 6.73 -2.80
Stormers 3.44 6.75 -3.30
Sharks 2.81 -2.94 5.80
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ulster 0.35 2.52 -2.20
Edinburgh 0.34 0.09 0.30
Ospreys -1.23 -2.51 1.30
Connacht -1.69 -0.76 -0.90
Benetton -3.55 1.02 -4.60
Scarlets -4.32 -10.65 6.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.68 -2.55 -4.10
Zebre -9.49 -16.17 6.70
Dragons -15.46 -15.41 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Feb 15 17 – 22 18.60 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 15 19 – 22 -12.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 16 30 – 23 1.90 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 16 19 – 29 10.10 FALSE
5 Benetton vs. Ulster Feb 16 34 – 19 -0.70 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Scarlets Feb 16 29 – 8 13.90 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 16 24 – 19 12.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Glasgow Feb 17 20 – 45 -17.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 23 Bulls 6.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.89 8.76 2.10
Toulon 6.84 5.32 1.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.79 3.96 1.80
Montpellier 1.97 -0.96 2.90
Stade Rochelais 1.94 4.85 -2.90
Clermont 0.69 0.41 0.30
Lyon 0.59 -0.18 0.80
Bayonne 0.29 -1.69 2.00
Castres Olympique -0.04 -0.09 0.10
Racing 92 -0.11 2.75 -2.90
Section Paloise -0.56 1.38 -1.90
Stade Francais -1.52 1.86 -3.40
USA Perpignan -3.19 -0.66 -2.50
Vannes -7.85 -10.00 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 16 36 – 32 0.60 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 16 53 – 17 3.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 16 30 – 38 2.40 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Vannes Feb 16 25 – 30 15.90 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Feb 16 39 – 37 5.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Feb 16 20 – 20 5.00 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 17 18 – 35 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Feb 23 Castres Olympique 4.60
2 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Feb 23 Section Paloise 9.60
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Feb 23 Stade Rochelais 7.70
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 23 Stade Toulousain 16.00
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Feb 23 Toulon 14.30
6 Vannes vs. Montpellier Feb 23 Montpellier -2.30
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 24 Bordeaux Begles 12.90

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.21 14.92 -0.70
Chiefs 12.13 11.43 0.70
Hurricanes 10.52 10.97 -0.50
Crusaders 9.44 8.99 0.50
Brumbies 5.72 6.19 -0.50
Reds 1.35 1.35 0.00
Highlanders -2.48 -2.50 0.00
Waratahs -5.19 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.77 -6.41 -0.40
Fijian Drua -7.51 -7.98 0.50
Moana Pasifika -10.89 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 14 33 – 25 1.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Feb 14 37 – 36 1.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Feb 15 32 – 36 -10.70 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 15 14 – 25 7.00 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 15 45 – 44 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 21 Chiefs 6.20
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 21 Reds 16.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua Feb 22 Hurricanes 22.00
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 Blues -13.20
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 22 Brumbies 16.00

 

February 17, 2025

Briefly

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February 12, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.79 12.09 3.70
Bulls 9.00 8.83 0.20
Glasgow 8.52 9.39 -0.90
Munster 4.82 9.28 -4.50
Stormers 3.99 6.75 -2.80
Lions 3.41 6.73 -3.30
Edinburgh 1.95 0.09 1.90
Ulster 1.49 2.52 -1.00
Sharks 1.40 -2.94 4.30
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Connacht -0.91 -0.76 -0.10
Ospreys -2.29 -2.51 0.20
Scarlets -3.54 -10.65 7.10
Benetton -4.69 1.02 -5.70
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -7.46 -2.55 -4.90
Zebre -11.11 -16.17 5.10
Dragons -14.65 -15.41 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 09 32 – 33 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Feb 15 Edinburgh 18.60
2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 15 Leinster -12.60
3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 16 Lions 1.90
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 16 Bulls 10.10
5 Benetton vs. Ulster Feb 16 Ulster -0.70
6 Munster vs. Scarlets Feb 16 Munster 13.90
7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 16 Connacht 12.00
8 Dragons vs. Glasgow Feb 17 Glasgow -17.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.92 14.92 0.00
Chiefs 11.43 11.43 0.00
Hurricanes 10.97 10.97 -0.00
Crusaders 8.99 8.99 0.00
Brumbies 6.19 6.19 -0.00
Reds 1.35 1.35 0.00
Highlanders -2.50 -2.50 0.00
Waratahs -5.17 -5.17 0.00
Western Force -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Fijian Drua -7.98 -7.98 -0.00
Moana Pasifika -11.25 -11.25 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 14 Crusaders 1.50
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Feb 14 Waratahs 1.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Feb 15 Brumbies -10.70
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 15 Blues 7.00
5 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 15 Western Force 8.80

 

January 29, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.79 12.09 3.70
Bulls 9.21 8.83 0.40
Glasgow 8.52 9.39 -0.90
Munster 4.82 9.28 -4.50
Stormers 3.78 6.75 -3.00
Lions 3.41 6.73 -3.30
Edinburgh 1.95 0.09 1.90
Ulster 1.49 2.52 -1.00
Sharks 1.40 -2.94 4.30
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Connacht -0.91 -0.76 -0.10
Ospreys -2.29 -2.51 0.20
Scarlets -3.54 -10.65 7.10
Benetton -4.69 1.02 -5.70
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -7.46 -2.55 -4.90
Zebre -11.11 -16.17 5.10
Dragons -14.65 -15.41 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht Jan 25 22 – 19 17.00 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Benetton Jan 25 43 – 0 2.80 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 26 22 – 37 -1.30 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jan 26 30 – 24 -1.70 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Stormers Jan 26 36 – 12 15.70 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Jan 26 22 – 42 -0.60 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 26 19 – 38 -12.50 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Zebre Jan 27 14 – 15 21.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 09 Bulls -2.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.37 8.76 1.60
Toulon 6.46 5.32 1.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.97 3.96 2.00
Stade Rochelais 3.05 4.85 -1.80
Montpellier 2.34 -0.96 3.30
Clermont 1.24 0.41 0.80
Racing 92 0.66 2.75 -2.10
Bayonne 0.08 -1.69 1.80
Castres Olympique -0.33 -0.09 -0.20
Lyon -0.42 -0.18 -0.20
Section Paloise -0.74 1.38 -2.10
Stade Francais -1.33 1.86 -3.20
USA Perpignan -3.00 -0.66 -2.30
Vannes -8.62 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Jan 26 20 – 22 14.00 FALSE
2 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 26 20 – 27 9.90 FALSE
3 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Jan 26 20 – 14 6.50 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 26 27 – 17 14.90 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Jan 26 16 – 11 3.50 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Stade Francais Jan 26 33 – 28 -1.30 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 27 45 – 26 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 16 Bayonne 0.60
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 16 Lyon 3.90
3 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 16 Montpellier 2.40
4 Racing 92 vs. Vannes Feb 16 Racing 92 15.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Feb 16 Stade Francais 5.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Feb 16 USA Perpignan 5.00
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 17 Stade Toulousain -2.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 14.06 5.55 8.50
Northampton Saints 5.92 7.50 -1.60
Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30
Sale Sharks 4.32 4.73 -0.40
Leicester Tigers 1.65 3.27 -1.60
Saracens 1.42 9.68 -8.30
Gloucester 0.77 -9.04 9.80
Harlequins -0.24 -2.73 2.50
Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40
Newcastle Falcons -20.32 -19.02 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 22 – 19 -0.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jan 26 31 – 22 1.40 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 26 38 – 31 5.30 TRUE
4 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 27 55 – 35 35.20 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 27 23 – 32 -1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 Sale Sharks -18.10
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 Bristol 14.00
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 Northampton Saints 10.80
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 Saracens 8.20
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 Bath 19.80

 

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