Posts filed under General (2829)

March 4, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.23 8.76 3.50
Toulon 6.66 5.32 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.80 3.96 1.80
Stade Rochelais 1.37 4.85 -3.50
Montpellier 1.24 -0.96 2.20
Lyon 0.84 -0.18 1.00
Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30
Section Paloise 0.63 1.38 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.20 -0.09 0.30
Bayonne -0.04 -1.69 1.60
Racing 92 -0.50 2.75 -3.30
Stade Francais -1.66 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -3.80 -0.66 -3.10
Vannes -7.92 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 27 – 20 1.10 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 21 – 17 7.90 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 29 – 47 6.60 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 22 – 17 3.80 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 63 – 21 24.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 31 – 18 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 Clermont 6.20
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 Lyon 15.60
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 Section Paloise 7.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 Stade Francais 4.60
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 Stade Rochelais 7.90
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 Toulon 16.20
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 Bordeaux Begles 1.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.68 14.92 -1.20
Chiefs 13.08 11.43 1.70
Hurricanes 9.54 10.97 -1.40
Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30
Brumbies 4.77 6.19 -1.40
Reds 1.60 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.95 -2.50 0.60
Waratahs -5.20 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.03 -6.41 0.40
Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20
Moana Pasifika -10.87 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 29 – 31 -6.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 29 – 24 5.10 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 49 – 34 11.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 33 -0.10 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 24 – 28 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 07 Blues 12.90
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs Mar 08 Chiefs -15.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 08 Hurricanes -16.90
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 08 Waratahs 4.30
5 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 09 Crusaders 11.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 1

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00
Hawthorn Hawks 21.95 21.95 -0.00
Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00
Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00
Sydney Swans 12.60 12.60 -0.00
GWS Giants 9.08 9.08 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00
Collingwood 5.39 5.39 0.00
Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00
Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00
St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00
Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00
Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00
West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00
North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 Brisbane Lions 11.60
2 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 Sydney Swans 1.60
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 08 Gold Coast Suns 14.70
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 GWS Giants 14.70

 

March 2, 2025

Adverse reactions?

NZ$ Herald has a piece today about increases in methamphetamine consumption (as measured by wastewater)

The story is about cheap meth imports increasing the supply, with a speculative aside into a decrease in consumption in Ōpōtiki and whether it might be attributable to major gang arrests.

The sudden spike in 2024 is surprising. Normally I would guess that sudden level changes in a time series were due to different definitions of the variable, but it appears to be defined the same way.

It’s obviously tempting to attribute the sudden change to the relaxation of rules on pseudoephedrine sale in 2024, and some people on social media seemed happy to do so.  There are problems, though.

First, the suddenness is still strange. You’d expect the gangs to take a while to ramp up production and sale after years out of the business — and if they were ready on day one, the spike would have been in June rather than July.

Second, that’s a big spike.  There’s about gram and a half of pseudoephedrine in a pack of decongestant tablets, which will make under a gram of meth, so a 20kg jump in meth production is a lot of Sudafed: tens of  thousands of packets per week of a drug sold only by pharmacist prescription. Someone should have noticed.

The Drug Foundation says it’s due to international supply, which seems plausible — we’re seeing  300-500kg seized most quarters recently, which is 15-40kg/week, so unless we’re catching the majority there will be enough getting through to explain wastewater levels.

The Herald also quotes price data from the Drug Trends Survey, which says prices are down. That’s a bit less supportive than it looks. First, prices were only down in roughly a straight line over several years. Second, the say they think demand has saturated, which doesn’t fit the spike. And finally, the last edition of the survey sampled from February to July 2024, so mostly missed the spike

February 27, 2025

Briefly

  • Petrol price margins are up: RNZ.  These, as we’ve discussed, are based on the difference between the import price and retail price, and include transport and vendor costs (like running petrol stations) as well as profits.  The change from week to week in the margin is still a good indicator that either the efficiency of the system has gone down or the profits have gone up.
  • The Trump administration has cited a statistic that only 6% of federal government workers are full-time in their offices. This is facially implausible when you consider how many federal jobs can’t possibly be done remotely. Pro Publica looked into the number, which came from a self-selected online survey of 6338 people claiming to be federal employees, run by a a small news organisation called Federal News Network in the suburbs of Washington.  Say no to statistics from bogus polls!
  • The UK is running a big (700,000 women) trial of “AI” to assist in reading mammograms. This isn’t ChatGPT, it’s from earlier generations of image-analysis software that actually works.  The hope is that using software plus one radiologist is at least as good as the current standard of two radiologists, allowing more screening to be done without needing more scarce radiologists. The media coverage is nearly all positive and based on the government’s publicity release, eg, this from the BBC. There’s not a lot of information available about how they will measure success or exactly which “AI” platforms they will use. I couldn’t find a trial registration, though I did find one for a much smaller trial 15-20 years ago on the same question.  One negative piece of media coverage from the New Statesman, for balance.
  • A US trial of an oral Covid vaccine, hoping to provide both better protection and easier delivery, has been stopped by the US government just before it was due to start. At the moment this is being described as a ‘pause’ rather than permanent stoppage.
February 25, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 12.09 2.60
Glasgow 9.33 9.39 -0.10
Bulls 8.23 8.83 -0.60
Munster 5.60 9.28 -3.70
Stormers 3.44 6.75 -3.30
Lions 3.33 6.73 -3.40
Sharks 2.81 -2.94 5.80
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ulster 0.35 2.52 -2.20
Edinburgh 0.34 0.09 0.30
Ospreys -1.23 -2.51 1.30
Connacht -1.69 -0.76 -0.90
Benetton -3.55 1.02 -4.60
Scarlets -4.32 -10.65 6.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.68 -2.55 -4.10
Zebre -9.49 -16.17 6.70
Dragons -15.46 -15.41 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 23 31 – 19 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Mar 01 Munster 10.80
2 Zebre vs. Dragons Mar 01 Zebre 11.50
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 Lions 3.00
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 02 Bulls 7.30
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 02 Leinster 26.90
6 Ulster vs. Scarlets Mar 02 Ulster 10.20
7 Connacht vs. Benetton Mar 02 Connacht 7.40
8 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Mar 02 Glasgow 16.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.56 8.76 2.80
Toulon 7.08 5.32 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.46 3.96 1.50
Montpellier 1.44 -0.96 2.40
Stade Rochelais 1.43 4.85 -3.40
Clermont 1.07 0.41 0.70
Lyon 0.56 -0.18 0.70
Racing 92 0.38 2.75 -2.40
Castres Olympique -0.03 -0.09 0.10
Section Paloise -0.23 1.38 -1.60
Bayonne -0.51 -1.69 1.20
Stade Francais -1.71 1.86 -3.60
USA Perpignan -3.47 -0.66 -2.80
Vannes -7.31 -10.00 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Feb 23 30 – 25 4.60 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Feb 23 23 – 6 9.60 TRUE
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Feb 23 21 – 26 7.70 FALSE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 23 41 – 6 16.00 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Feb 23 24 – 6 14.30 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Montpellier Feb 23 37 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 24 22 – 18 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 Lyon 1.10
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 Montpellier 7.90
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 Racing 92 6.60
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 Stade Francais 3.80
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 Stade Toulousain 24.20
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Bordeaux Begles -2.20
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 Bayonne 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.41 14.92 -1.50
Chiefs 12.86 11.43 1.40
Hurricanes 9.81 10.97 -1.20
Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30
Brumbies 4.99 6.19 -1.20
Reds 1.61 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.68 -2.50 0.80
Waratahs -5.19 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.04 -6.41 0.40
Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.15 -11.25 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 21 49 – 24 6.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 21 56 – 36 16.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua Feb 22 38 – 34 22.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 29 – 21 -13.20 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 22 42 – 45 16.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 Highlanders -6.00
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 Waratahs 5.10
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 Chiefs 11.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -0.10
5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 Reds -4.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.29 9.29 -0.00
Panthers 8.50 8.50 -0.00
Roosters 7.44 7.44 -0.00
Sharks 5.10 5.10 0.00
Cowboys 4.11 4.11 -0.00
Sea Eagles 2.97 2.97 -0.00
Bulldogs 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Knights -0.05 -0.05 -0.00
Warriors -1.68 -1.68 -0.00
Broncos -1.82 -1.82 -0.00
Dolphins -1.96 -1.96 -0.00
Eels -3.02 -3.02 -0.00
Raiders -3.61 -3.61 -0.00
Rabbitohs -4.35 -4.35 -0.00
Dragons -4.55 -4.55 0.00
Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00
Wests Tigers -10.97 -10.97 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 Warriors -1.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 Panthers 3.40
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 Roosters 12.30
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 Knights -7.90
5 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 Dolphins 5.40
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 Bulldogs -1.60
7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 Sea Eagles 1.90
8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 Storm 15.30

 

February 23, 2025

Official data bad news

  • USA: Unfortunately, the Economy Runs On the Data Trump Is Trying to Delete (article, podcast discussion)
  • New Zealand: Len Cook: Trust must be recovered after a second Census failure (The Post)