Posts filed under General (2811)

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• USA: Unfortunately, the Economy Runs On the Data Trump Is Trying to Delete (article, podcast discussion)
• New Zealand: Len Cook: Trust must be recovered after a second Census failure (The Post)

As you have probably heard, a modest-sized asteroid will pass really quite close to the earth in seven years. Perhaps very close. Maybe even closer than that. If this happens, it won’t be civilisation-destroying but could be locally devastating. The main StatsChat relevant issue is that the probability of the asteroid hitting the earth keeps going up: 1.4%, 2.2%, 3.1%.  Why is it getting consistently higher? Does that mean we can expect it will keep going up?

Most likely, the probability will keep going up for a while, then suddenly plunge to zero — though it might keep going up and up to 100%.  The sudden plunge to zero and the increase before that point happen for the same reason.    Because of our limited measurements so far, we know only approximately where the asteroid will be in seven years’ time.  You can think of a little moving cloud of possible asteroid positions in space. At the moment, the cloud of possible positions intersects where the Earth will be, but the Earth is a pretty small target (Space is big. Really big.)

As we get more precise information (for example, from the Webb Space Telescope) the cloud of possible positions gets smaller.  If the cloud still intersects the Earth’s position, the smaller cloud of possibilities means the probability of impact goes up.  If it doesn’t still intersect the Earth’s position, the probability of impact drops to zero.

If the randomness in predictions is approximately correct in some consistent way, the predicted average value of the estimate should stay the same over time (the technical term is ‘martingale’). The chance that the estimate has gone to zero will go up over time, so the estimate in scenarios where it doesn’t go to zero must also go up over time.

Update: it’s down to 0.36%
Update: and now down to 0.0022%. Asteroid goneburger.

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• CDC’s “disease detectives” halved as part of DOGE cuts at health agencies
• Bird flu seen in cow veterinarians
• Louisiana will no longer promote mass vaccination (paywalled original)
• Measles outbreak continues to expand in Texas

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.