Posts filed under General (2814)

February 25, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 12.09 2.60
Glasgow 9.33 9.39 -0.10
Bulls 8.23 8.83 -0.60
Munster 5.60 9.28 -3.70
Stormers 3.44 6.75 -3.30
Lions 3.33 6.73 -3.40
Sharks 2.81 -2.94 5.80
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ulster 0.35 2.52 -2.20
Edinburgh 0.34 0.09 0.30
Ospreys -1.23 -2.51 1.30
Connacht -1.69 -0.76 -0.90
Benetton -3.55 1.02 -4.60
Scarlets -4.32 -10.65 6.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.68 -2.55 -4.10
Zebre -9.49 -16.17 6.70
Dragons -15.46 -15.41 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 23 31 – 19 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Mar 01 Munster 10.80
2 Zebre vs. Dragons Mar 01 Zebre 11.50
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 Lions 3.00
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 02 Bulls 7.30
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 02 Leinster 26.90
6 Ulster vs. Scarlets Mar 02 Ulster 10.20
7 Connacht vs. Benetton Mar 02 Connacht 7.40
8 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Mar 02 Glasgow 16.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.56 8.76 2.80
Toulon 7.08 5.32 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.46 3.96 1.50
Montpellier 1.44 -0.96 2.40
Stade Rochelais 1.43 4.85 -3.40
Clermont 1.07 0.41 0.70
Lyon 0.56 -0.18 0.70
Racing 92 0.38 2.75 -2.40
Castres Olympique -0.03 -0.09 0.10
Section Paloise -0.23 1.38 -1.60
Bayonne -0.51 -1.69 1.20
Stade Francais -1.71 1.86 -3.60
USA Perpignan -3.47 -0.66 -2.80
Vannes -7.31 -10.00 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Feb 23 30 – 25 4.60 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Feb 23 23 – 6 9.60 TRUE
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Feb 23 21 – 26 7.70 FALSE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 23 41 – 6 16.00 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Feb 23 24 – 6 14.30 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Montpellier Feb 23 37 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 24 22 – 18 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 Lyon 1.10
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 Montpellier 7.90
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 Racing 92 6.60
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 Stade Francais 3.80
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 Stade Toulousain 24.20
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Bordeaux Begles -2.20
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 Bayonne 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.41 14.92 -1.50
Chiefs 12.86 11.43 1.40
Hurricanes 9.81 10.97 -1.20
Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30
Brumbies 4.99 6.19 -1.20
Reds 1.61 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.68 -2.50 0.80
Waratahs -5.19 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.04 -6.41 0.40
Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.15 -11.25 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 21 49 – 24 6.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 21 56 – 36 16.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua Feb 22 38 – 34 22.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 29 – 21 -13.20 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 22 42 – 45 16.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 Highlanders -6.00
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 Waratahs 5.10
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 Chiefs 11.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -0.10
5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 Reds -4.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.29 9.29 -0.00
Panthers 8.50 8.50 -0.00
Roosters 7.44 7.44 -0.00
Sharks 5.10 5.10 0.00
Cowboys 4.11 4.11 -0.00
Sea Eagles 2.97 2.97 -0.00
Bulldogs 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Knights -0.05 -0.05 -0.00
Warriors -1.68 -1.68 -0.00
Broncos -1.82 -1.82 -0.00
Dolphins -1.96 -1.96 -0.00
Eels -3.02 -3.02 -0.00
Raiders -3.61 -3.61 -0.00
Rabbitohs -4.35 -4.35 -0.00
Dragons -4.55 -4.55 0.00
Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00
Wests Tigers -10.97 -10.97 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 Warriors -1.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 Panthers 3.40
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 Roosters 12.30
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 Knights -7.90
5 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 Dolphins 5.40
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 Bulldogs -1.60
7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 Sea Eagles 1.90
8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 Storm 15.30

 

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February 23, 2025

Official data bad news

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  • USA: Unfortunately, the Economy Runs On the Data Trump Is Trying to Delete (article, podcast discussion)
  • New Zealand: Len Cook: Trust must be recovered after a second Census failure (The Post)
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February 19, 2025

Low-flying rocks

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As you have probably heard, a modest-sized asteroid will pass really quite close to the earth in seven years. Perhaps very close. Maybe even closer than that. If this happens, it won’t be civilisation-destroying but could be locally devastating. The main StatsChat relevant issue is that the probability of the asteroid hitting the earth keeps going up: 1.4%, 2.2%, 3.1%.  Why is it getting consistently higher? Does that mean we can expect it will keep going up?

Most likely, the probability will keep going up for a while, then suddenly plunge to zero — though it might keep going up and up to 100%.  The sudden plunge to zero and the increase before that point happen for the same reason.    Because of our limited measurements so far, we know only approximately where the asteroid will be in seven years’ time.  You can think of a little moving cloud of possible asteroid positions in space. At the moment, the cloud of possible positions intersects where the Earth will be, but the Earth is a pretty small target (Space is big. Really big.)

As we get more precise information (for example, from the Webb Space Telescope) the cloud of possible positions gets smaller.  If the cloud still intersects the Earth’s position, the smaller cloud of possibilities means the probability of impact goes up.  If it doesn’t still intersect the Earth’s position, the probability of impact drops to zero.

If the randomness in predictions is approximately correct in some consistent way, the predicted average value of the estimate should stay the same over time (the technical term is ‘martingale’). The chance that the estimate has gone to zero will go up over time, so the estimate in scenarios where it doesn’t go to zero must also go up over time.

Update: it’s down to 0.36%
Update: and now down to 0.0022%. Asteroid goneburger.

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February 18, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 12.09 2.60
Glasgow 9.33 9.39 -0.10
Bulls 7.59 8.83 -1.20
Munster 5.60 9.28 -3.70
Lions 3.97 6.73 -2.80
Stormers 3.44 6.75 -3.30
Sharks 2.81 -2.94 5.80
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ulster 0.35 2.52 -2.20
Edinburgh 0.34 0.09 0.30
Ospreys -1.23 -2.51 1.30
Connacht -1.69 -0.76 -0.90
Benetton -3.55 1.02 -4.60
Scarlets -4.32 -10.65 6.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.68 -2.55 -4.10
Zebre -9.49 -16.17 6.70
Dragons -15.46 -15.41 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Feb 15 17 – 22 18.60 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Feb 15 19 – 22 -12.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 16 30 – 23 1.90 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Feb 16 19 – 29 10.10 FALSE
5 Benetton vs. Ulster Feb 16 34 – 19 -0.70 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Scarlets Feb 16 29 – 8 13.90 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 16 24 – 19 12.00 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Glasgow Feb 17 20 – 45 -17.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 23 Bulls 6.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.89 8.76 2.10
Toulon 6.84 5.32 1.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.79 3.96 1.80
Montpellier 1.97 -0.96 2.90
Stade Rochelais 1.94 4.85 -2.90
Clermont 0.69 0.41 0.30
Lyon 0.59 -0.18 0.80
Bayonne 0.29 -1.69 2.00
Castres Olympique -0.04 -0.09 0.10
Racing 92 -0.11 2.75 -2.90
Section Paloise -0.56 1.38 -1.90
Stade Francais -1.52 1.86 -3.40
USA Perpignan -3.19 -0.66 -2.50
Vannes -7.85 -10.00 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 16 36 – 32 0.60 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 16 53 – 17 3.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 16 30 – 38 2.40 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Vannes Feb 16 25 – 30 15.90 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Feb 16 39 – 37 5.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Feb 16 20 – 20 5.00 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 17 18 – 35 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Feb 23 Castres Olympique 4.60
2 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Feb 23 Section Paloise 9.60
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Feb 23 Stade Rochelais 7.70
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 23 Stade Toulousain 16.00
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Feb 23 Toulon 14.30
6 Vannes vs. Montpellier Feb 23 Montpellier -2.30
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 24 Bordeaux Begles 12.90

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 14.21 14.92 -0.70
Chiefs 12.13 11.43 0.70
Hurricanes 10.52 10.97 -0.50
Crusaders 9.44 8.99 0.50
Brumbies 5.72 6.19 -0.50
Reds 1.35 1.35 0.00
Highlanders -2.48 -2.50 0.00
Waratahs -5.19 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.77 -6.41 -0.40
Fijian Drua -7.51 -7.98 0.50
Moana Pasifika -10.89 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Feb 14 33 – 25 1.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Feb 14 37 – 36 1.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Feb 15 32 – 36 -10.70 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 15 14 – 25 7.00 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 15 45 – 44 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 21 Chiefs 6.20
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 21 Reds 16.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua Feb 22 Hurricanes 22.00
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 Blues -13.20
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 22 Brumbies 16.00

 

February 17, 2025

Briefly

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