Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Blues | 12.15 | 14.92 | -2.80 |
Chiefs | 11.94 | 11.43 | 0.50 |
Crusaders | 10.46 | 8.99 | 1.50 |
Hurricanes | 8.24 | 10.97 | -2.70 |
Brumbies | 4.98 | 6.19 | -1.20 |
Reds | 2.02 | 1.35 | 0.70 |
Highlanders | -2.08 | -2.50 | 0.40 |
Waratahs | -4.41 | -5.17 | 0.80 |
Western Force | -5.74 | -6.41 | 0.70 |
Fijian Drua | -7.36 | -7.98 | 0.60 |
Moana Pasifika | -9.67 | -11.25 | 1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs | Mar 21 | 35 – 50 | -18.60 | TRUE |
2 | Highlanders vs. Reds | Mar 22 | 23 – 29 | 0.90 | FALSE |
3 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Mar 22 | 19 – 42 | 7.30 | FALSE |
4 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Mar 22 | 28 – 23 | -6.90 | FALSE |
5 | Western Force vs. Fijian Drua | Mar 23 | 52 – 15 | 2.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Mar 28 | Hurricanes | 16.70 |
2 | Brumbies vs. Highlanders | Mar 28 | Brumbies | 11.10 |
3 | Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika | Mar 29 | Crusaders | 23.60 |
4 | Reds vs. Western Force | Mar 29 | Reds | 11.30 |