Posts filed under General (2814)

Q: Did you see ebikes are good for your brain? If you’re old.

A: How old?

Q: Over 50

A: That’s not… Ahem. That’s a very inclusive definition of ‘old’, isn’t it?

Q: Does it work?

A: Who knows? It might.

Q: Does this research show it works?

A: What would we want to check?

Q: Mice or people?

A: Good. People, not mice.

Q: Random allocation of people or just correlations?

A: Yes, that’s right. This one is … somewhere in between.

Q: What’s in between randomly allocating people and just seeing what they choose? You flip a coin, but with your eyes closed?

A: Well…

Participants were pseudo-randomly assigned to one of three groups: pedal cycling, e-bike or non-cycling control groups. Priority was given to filling the cycling spots then controls were recruited to match sample characteristics. The control group were recruited after the experimental groups had started to be run so that we could match age and gender in the control group with those participants in the experimental groups. The control group were aware that they would not be cycling during the trial and those in the experimental group were all re-engaging with cycling.

Q: So, comparing people who signed up to do cycling with people who signed up to avoid cycling and other exercise.

A: Yes, but in the context of cycling research, not just random people asked to not do any extra exercise.

Q: And did the cycling group have better brains?

A: They measured a whole lot of things. Eight different multi-question assessments. Some of those improved and some didn’t

Q: Is that what they expected?

A: Not really, no. They expected improvements in a lot of the things that didn’t go up

In line with our predictions, we found trends for improvement in executive function in the Stroop task and letter updating task in both cycling groups compared to baseline and the non-cycling controls. We also found improvement in speed of processing for go trials in the Stop-It signal task only for e-bike participants during the intervention. Measures of memory and spatial functioning did not show an effect of cycling. Furthermore, we found increases in self-reported mental health on the SF-36 health survey for only the e-bike cycling group. Despite strong evidence from previous studies for an increase in well-being after exercise and the impacts of the outdoor environment on this aspect of mental health, we did not find increases on the PWB, SL or PANAS questionnaires.

Q: Could it just be the study was too small to give reliable conclusions?

A: Well, if that’s the explanation, then the study is too small to support press releases and media attention.

Q: So e-bikes are bad?

A: E-bikes are a good form of low-carbon transport, especially in hilly cities with nice climates, and let you get some, but not too much, exercise. I don’t think they need special effects on the brain to be popular.

Bogus Tesla Polls Are Bogus

Via the US website Electrek, which does news about electric vehicles and adjacent subjects, a story about bogus polls.

A bogus online clicky poll in Germany got 100,000 clicks and found that 94% of the time that a button was clicked, it corresponded to “absolutely not willing to buy a Tesla”. Electrek calls this “100,000 Germans”, based on very little evidence.

The poll kept running. By the time it had 470,000 clicks, only 29% of the clicks corresponded to “absolutely not willing to buy a Tesla”. Quite a lot of these clicks — 253,000 — came from just two IP addresses in the US. A bit of maths shows that the clicks from the two US addresses made up about three-quarters of the pro-Tesla clicks.

The magazine, T-Online, was forced to the shocking conclusion that its meaningless customer-engagement exercise had been manipulated by someone else’s meaningless customer-engagement exercise.

March 25, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Hawthorn Hawks	25.49	21.95	3.50
Brisbane Lions	19.05	22.65	-3.60
Geelong Cats	17.47	15.04	2.40
Western Bulldogs	14.32	18.20	-3.90
Collingwood	12.95	5.39	7.60
Adelaide Crows	9.78	2.69	7.10
GWS Giants	8.43	9.08	-0.70
Sydney Swans	8.31	12.60	-4.30
Port Adelaide Power	4.81	7.63	-2.80
Carlton Blues	2.24	5.01	-2.80
Fremantle Dockers	1.13	5.99	-4.90
St Kilda Saints	-1.11	0.89	-2.00
Gold Coast Suns	-1.98	-6.41	4.40
Melbourne Demons	-6.56	-0.21	-6.40
Essendon Bombers	-12.50	-10.15	-2.40
North Melbourne	-28.74	-37.08	8.30
Richmond Tigers	-29.93	-31.00	1.10
West Coast Eagles	-35.55	-34.67	-0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks	Mar 20	60 – 80	-24.30	TRUE
2	Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood	Mar 21	70 – 76	3.70	FALSE
3	Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows	Mar 22	100 – 161	-3.80	TRUE
4	Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers	Mar 22	140 – 68	41.30	TRUE
5	St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats	Mar 22	98 – 91	-10.30	FALSE
6	Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles	Mar 23	94 – 75	72.70	TRUE
7	North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons	Mar 23	125 – 66	-33.40	FALSE
8	Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans	Mar 23	65 – 68	6.00	FALSE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power	Mar 27	Port Adelaide Power	-6.30
2	Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs	Mar 28	Western Bulldogs	-12.10
3	Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats	Mar 29	Brisbane Lions	5.60
4	Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns	Mar 29	Melbourne Demons	6.40
5	St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers	Mar 29	St Kilda Saints	28.80
6	Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants	Mar 29	Hawthorn Hawks	28.10
7	Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne	Mar 30	Adelaide Crows	49.50
8	West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers	Mar 30	Fremantle Dockers	-36.70

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Leinster	13.55	12.09	1.50
Bulls	7.64	8.83	-1.20
Glasgow	7.42	9.39	-2.00
Stormers	5.32	6.75	-1.40
Munster	5.08	9.28	-4.20
Lions	3.52	6.73	-3.20
Edinburgh	1.25	0.09	1.20
Cheetahs	0.80	0.80	0.00
Sharks	0.62	-2.94	3.60
Ospreys	-0.46	-2.51	2.10
Ulster	-1.13	2.52	-3.70
Connacht	-1.17	-0.76	-0.40
Benetton	-3.33	1.02	-4.40
Scarlets	-4.51	-10.65	6.10
Cardiff Rugby	-4.87	-2.55	-2.30
Southern Kings	-6.52	-6.52	0.00
Zebre	-8.50	-16.17	7.70
Dragons	-14.72	-15.41	0.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 104 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions	Mar 22	20 – 17	-4.60	FALSE
2	Glasgow vs. Munster	Mar 22	28 – 25	9.20	TRUE
3	Sharks vs. Zebre	Mar 22	35 – 34	16.90	TRUE
4	Benetton vs. Edinburgh	Mar 23	21 – 18	0.30	TRUE
5	Bulls vs. Leinster	Mar 23	21 – 20	-0.80	FALSE
6	Dragons vs. Ulster	Mar 23	30 – 34	-9.20	TRUE
7	Ospreys vs. Connacht	Mar 23	43 – 40	7.10	TRUE
8	Scarlets vs. Stormers	Mar 23	17 – 29	-2.20	TRUE

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Edinburgh vs. Dragons	Mar 29	Edinburgh	21.50
2	Ulster vs. Stormers	Mar 29	Stormers	-0.90
3	Connacht vs. Munster	Mar 30	Munster	-3.70
4	Bulls vs. Zebre	Mar 30	Bulls	21.60
5	Connacht vs. Munster	Mar 30	Munster	-3.70
6	Scarlets vs. Ospreys	Mar 30	Ospreys	-1.50
7	Sharks vs. Leinster	Mar 30	Leinster	-7.40
8	Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby	Mar 30	Benetton	7.00
9	Glasgow vs. Lions	Mar 30	Glasgow	9.40

Top 14 Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Stade Toulousain	11.82	8.76	3.10
Toulon	6.94	5.32	1.60
Bordeaux Begles	6.16	3.96	2.20
Montpellier	1.56	-0.96	2.50
Stade Rochelais	1.05	4.85	-3.80
Lyon	0.78	-0.18	1.00
Castres Olympique	0.53	-0.09	0.60
Clermont	0.34	0.41	-0.10
Section Paloise	0.31	1.38	-1.10
Bayonne	0.01	-1.69	1.70
Racing 92	-0.15	2.75	-2.90
Stade Francais	-1.68	1.86	-3.50
USA Perpignan	-4.08	-0.66	-3.40
Vannes	-7.88	-10.00	2.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Clermont vs. Racing 92	Mar 23	21 – 23	6.20	FALSE
2	Lyon vs. Vannes	Mar 23	36 – 21	15.60	TRUE
3	Section Paloise vs. Montpellier	Mar 23	40 – 38	7.70	TRUE
4	Stade Francais vs. Bayonne	Mar 23	31 – 27	4.60	TRUE
5	Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique	Mar 23	12 – 12	7.90	FALSE
6	Toulon vs. USA Perpignan	Mar 23	40 – 19	16.20	TRUE
7	Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain	Mar 24	32 – 24	1.10	TRUE

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bayonne vs. Lyon	Mar 30	Bayonne	5.30
2	Castres Olympique vs. Toulon	Mar 30	Toulon	-0.10
3	Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais	Mar 30	Clermont	5.20
4	Montpellier vs. Stade Francais	Mar 30	Montpellier	9.00
5	Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles	Mar 30	Racing 92	0.30
6	Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise	Mar 30	Stade Toulousain	16.30
7	Vannes vs. USA Perpignan	Mar 30	Vannes	2.70

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Blues	12.15	14.92	-2.80
Chiefs	11.94	11.43	0.50
Crusaders	10.46	8.99	1.50
Hurricanes	8.24	10.97	-2.70
Brumbies	4.98	6.19	-1.20
Reds	2.02	1.35	0.70
Highlanders	-2.08	-2.50	0.40
Waratahs	-4.41	-5.17	0.80
Western Force	-5.74	-6.41	0.70
Fijian Drua	-7.36	-7.98	0.60
Moana Pasifika	-9.67	-11.25	1.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs	Mar 21	35 – 50	-18.60	TRUE
2	Highlanders vs. Reds	Mar 22	23 – 29	0.90	FALSE
3	Blues vs. Crusaders	Mar 22	19 – 42	7.30	FALSE
4	Waratahs vs. Brumbies	Mar 22	28 – 23	-6.90	FALSE
5	Western Force vs. Fijian Drua	Mar 23	52 – 15	2.80	TRUE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Hurricanes vs. Waratahs	Mar 28	Hurricanes	16.70
2	Brumbies vs. Highlanders	Mar 28	Brumbies	11.10
3	Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika	Mar 29	Crusaders	23.60
4	Reds vs. Western Force	Mar 29	Reds	11.30

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Bath	13.68	5.55	8.10
Leicester Tigers	6.03	3.27	2.80
Bristol	5.33	9.58	-4.30
Sale Sharks	4.90	4.73	0.20
Harlequins	1.68	-2.73	4.40
Northampton Saints	1.54	7.50	-6.00
Gloucester	1.15	-9.04	10.20
Saracens	-0.50	9.68	-10.20
Exeter Chiefs	-2.16	1.23	-3.40
Newcastle Falcons	-20.91	-19.02	-1.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks	Mar 22	15 – 39	-18.10	TRUE
2	Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs	Mar 23	52 – 38	14.00	TRUE
3	Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers	Mar 23	0 – 33	10.80	FALSE
4	Saracens vs. Harlequins	Mar 23	12 – 23	8.20	FALSE
5	Bath vs. Gloucester	Mar 24	42 – 26	19.80	TRUE

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Bath vs. Harlequins	Mar 30	Bath	18.50
2	Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons	Mar 30	Exeter Chiefs	25.30
3	Gloucester vs. Bristol	Mar 30	Gloucester	2.30
4	Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens	Mar 30	Leicester Tigers	13.00
5	Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints	Mar 30	Sale Sharks	9.90

NRL Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

	Current Rating	Rating at Season Start	Difference
Storm	10.33	9.29	1.00
Panthers	8.05	8.50	-0.50
Sharks	6.11	5.10	1.00
Roosters	5.65	7.44	-1.80
Sea Eagles	4.00	2.97	1.00
Cowboys	1.42	4.11	-2.70
Bulldogs	1.09	0.07	1.00
Broncos	-0.04	-1.82	1.80
Knights	-0.88	-0.05	-0.80
Warriors	-1.10	-1.68	0.60
Raiders	-2.98	-3.61	0.60
Dolphins	-3.48	-1.96	-1.50
Rabbitohs	-4.13	-4.35	0.20
Titans	-4.90	-5.50	0.60
Dragons	-5.17	-4.55	-0.60
Eels	-5.67	-3.02	-2.70
Wests Tigers	-8.30	-10.97	2.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

	Game	Date	Score	Prediction	Correct
1	Storm vs. Panthers	Mar 20	30 – 24	5.10	TRUE
2	Warriors vs. Roosters	Mar 21	14 – 6	-4.40	FALSE
3	Broncos vs. Cowboys	Mar 21	26 – 16	0.60	TRUE
4	Sharks vs. Rabbitohs	Mar 22	27 – 12	12.90	TRUE
5	Dolphins vs. Wests Tigers	Mar 22	18 – 30	9.70	FALSE
6	Titans vs. Knights	Mar 22	26 – 6	-3.00	FALSE
7	Eels vs. Bulldogs	Mar 23	8 – 16	-3.20	TRUE
8	Sea Eagles vs. Raiders	Mar 23	40 – 12	8.20	TRUE

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

	Game	Date	Winner	Prediction
1	Rabbitohs vs. Panthers	Mar 27	Panthers	-9.20
2	Roosters vs. Titans	Mar 28	Roosters	13.50
3	Dolphins vs. Broncos	Mar 28	Broncos	-3.40
4	Dragons vs. Storm	Mar 29	Storm	-12.50
5	Cowboys vs. Raiders	Mar 29	Cowboys	7.40
6	Sharks vs. Bulldogs	Mar 29	Sharks	8.00
7	Sea Eagles vs. Eels	Mar 30	Sea Eagles	12.70
8	Wests Tigers vs. Warriors	Mar 30	Warriors	-3.70

If you see a fork in the road

From Pew Research, a bizarre error

A few Reddit users shared screenshots from a variety of surveys, where questions that should have offered answer options of “yes” and “no” instead offered the choices “forks” and “no.”

In summary: web browsers may offer you the option to translate web pages automatically from languages you don’t read to languages you do read. That is, they have the option to silently rewrite web pages before showing them to you. They aren’t 100% reliable either in guessing which web pages are actually in a foreign language and need translating or in translating those pages to, as it might be, English.

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March 23, 2025

Briefly

Data on congestion pricing for traffic in New York: amazingly successful
David Spiegelhalter, a UK statistician, on “Past, Present Future” history of ideas podcast
It’s amazing what is in official data: US egg prices
Or, conversely, isn’t: problems with UK growth data