Posts written by Atakohu Middleton (125)

Statistics New Zealand is running the numbers during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games to show how many medals countries are winning relative to their population.  At the time of posting, we were third on a per-million-of-population basis. Check it out here.

The New Zealand Data Futures Forum, which was established by the Ministers of Finance and Statistics to explore the future of data-sharing between the public and private sector, has released a discussion paper here.

This is the press release that was issued this morning:

Paddock to plate, and smart roads possible – NZ Data Futures Forum

New Zealand’s international brand and exports could grow significantly with the creation of a data sharing ‘eco-system’ according to a paper released by the NZ Data Futures Forum today.

Food traceability or ‘paddock to plate’ tracking is one of a number of kick start projects recommended in the paper that would see New Zealand become a world leader in the trusted use of data.

“New Zealand has got a real opportunity here. If we can create an ‘eco-system’ for data, we can unlock huge value, but to do this we need to treat data as a national asset,” says Forum Chair John Whitehead.

The paper suggests a range of initiatives including the establishment of an independent data council and an open data champion to drive innovation through data sharing.  The data council would act as an independent ‘guardian’ to ensure trust, privacy and security are maintained.

“Getting the rules of the game right is a vital part of encouraging collaboration, creativity and innovation.  New Zealand is uniquely placed to do this extremely well.”

The development of ‘smart roads’ that pull data from a range of sources, such as cats eye data capturing traffic flow, is another example the Forum uses to highlight the value that can  be created through collaborative data sharing.

“Transport is a critical issue for Auckland. Smart roads can keep traffic moving more freely and prevent a future of bottlenecks and delays literally putting a brake on productivity

“If our recommendations are followed we will see New Zealand lead the world in this space. The potential gains are limitless, including the ability to tackle immediate and real social problems.”

Thomas Lumley writes in his latest Listener column: “Since 1980, your chance of surviving five years after a heart attack has increased from just over 70% to just under 80%. For breast cancer, the five-year survival rate has gone from about 60% to about 85% in the same period of time, and for melanoma it has risen from about 80% to over 90%.

“From these figures you might conclude that breast cancer treatment has improved a lot, treatment for melanoma has not improved as much and treatment for a heart attack has improved slightly less than for melanoma. It’s actually a bit more complicated than that.”

Read the rest of the column here. 

Interested in learning to do data analysis but don’t know where to start? Try out the Department of Statistics’ new MOOC (massive online open course) called From Data to Insight: An Introduction to Data Analysis. It’s free – yep, it won’t cost you a bean – starts on October 6, takes just three hours a week, and will be led by our resident world-renowned statistics educator Prof Chris Wild (right).

The blurb says, in part:

“The course focuses on data exploration and discovery, showing you what to look for in statistical data, however large it may be. We’ll also teach you some of the limitations of data and what you can do to avoid being misled. We use data visualisations designed to teach you these skills quickly, and introduce you to the basic concepts you need to start understanding our world through data.

“This course assumes very little experience with statistical ideas and concepts. You will need to be comfortable thinking in terms of percentages, have basic Microsoft Excel skills, and a Windows or Macintosh computer to download and install our iNZight software.”

And that’s all you need. Spread the word.

Thomas Lumley’s latest New Zealand Listener column points out that while people love the sound of public screening for disease,  it has a significant problem: Most people who are screened aren’t sick. And that’s when the spectre of false positives arises …

Read the column here: Failing the screen test

As many of you will know, I’m on the working group developing the content of a unit standard in statistical concepts for the National Diploma in Applied Journalism, which journalists with basic qualifications pursue while on the job to extend their skills.

It’s now time for me to ask you to send New Zealand examples of well-written statistically-based stories and poorly-written statistically-based stories that we can use. BUT you need to be able to send me the source data and an explanation (however rough) of what’s wrong with the story and how it could be improved.

I think that teachers may have existing examples that might do, and I would love to see them. You can email me your juicy contributions to statschat@gmail.com.

The New Zealand Data Futures Forum was established by the Ministers of Finance and Statistics to have a balanced conversation with New Zealand about the opportunities, risks and benefits of sharing data.

It is particularly keen that people have a say about the potential sharing of big data (information captured through instruments, sensors, internet transactions, email, video, click streams, and other digital activity) held by public and private-sector organisations. How do individuals control their own information and identity while at the same time creating an environment where data can be harnessed for public and economic good?

The Forum will be active until the end of June this year. To post a comment go to https://www.nzdatafutures.org.nz/have-your-say

How can a sham medical procedure provide huge benefits? And why do we still do them in a world of randomised, blinded trials? Thomas Lumley explores the issue in his latest New Zealand Listener column. Click here.

…”One of the problems in developing drugs is detecting serious side effects. People who need medication tend to be unwell, so it’s hard to find a reliable comparison. That’s why the roughly threefold increase in heart-attack risk among Vioxx users took so long to be detected …”

Read his column, Faulty Powers, here.

Heavy drinking and the societal harm it causes is a big issue and attracts a lot of media and scholarly attention (and Statschat’s, too). So we were interested to see today’s new release from the Journal of the American Medical Association. It describes a double-blind, parallel-group, individually-randomised trial that studied moderate to heavy student drinkers from seven of our eight universities to see if a web-based alcohol screening and intervention programme reduced their unhealthy drinking behaviour.

And the short answer? Not really. But if they identified as Māori, the answer was … yes, with a caveat. More on that in a moment.

Statistician Nicholas Horton and colleagues used an online questionnaire to identify students at Otago, Auckland, Canterbury, Victoria, Lincoln, Massey, and Waikato who had unhealthy drinking habits. Half the students were assigned at random to receive personalised feedback and the other students had no input. Five months later, researchers followed up with the students on certain aspects of their drinking.

The overall result? “The intervention group tended to have less drinking and fewer problems then the control group, but the effects were relatively modest,” says Professor Horton. The take-away message: A web-based alcohol screening and intervention program had little effect on unhealthy drinking among New Zealand uni students. Restrictions on alcohol availability and promotion are still needed if we really want to tackle alcohol abuse.

But among Māori students, who comprise 10% of our national uni population, those receiving intervention were found to drink 22% less alcohol and to experience 19% fewer alcohol-related academic problems at the five-month follow-up. The paper suggests that Māori students are possibly more heavily influenced by social-norm feedback than non-Māori students. “Māori students may have a stronger group identity, enhanced by being a small minority in the university setting.” But the paper warns that the difference could also be due to chance, “underscoring the need to undertake replication and further studies evaluating web-based alcohol screening and brief intervention in full-scale effectiveness trials.”

The paper is here. Read the JAMA editorial here.