Posts written by David Scott (1515)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 1, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.02 9.68 0.30
Bath 8.12 5.55 2.60
Bristol 6.70 9.58 -2.90
Northampton Saints 5.17 7.50 -2.30
Leicester Tigers 3.20 3.27 -0.10
Sale Sharks 2.77 4.73 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 1.06 1.23 -0.20
Harlequins -2.43 -2.73 0.30
Gloucester -5.95 -9.04 3.10
Newcastle Falcons -17.91 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 41 – 44 24.70 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 28 – 14 24.00 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 45 – 26 12.40 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 30 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 15 – 20 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Northampton Saints 14.10
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 05 Sale Sharks 15.20
3 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 06 Bath 7.90
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 Leicester Tigers -14.60
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 07 Saracens 15.50

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.87 6.15 6.70
Panthers 9.30 14.73 -5.40
Roosters 6.65 3.08 3.60
Sharks 5.06 2.94 2.10
Cowboys 4.66 2.47 2.20
Sea Eagles 2.60 -0.48 3.10
Bulldogs -0.76 -13.35 12.60
Knights -1.10 1.84 -2.90
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90
Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60
Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70
Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90
Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70
Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90
Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60
Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Sep 28 26 – 6 2.10 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 27 48 – 18 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Oct 06 Panthers 0.80

 

September 26, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.46 8.76 0.70
Stade Rochelais 5.46 4.85 0.60
Toulon 5.39 5.32 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.88 3.96 0.90
Racing 92 2.67 2.75 -0.10
Clermont 1.47 0.41 1.10
Castres Olympique 0.67 -0.09 0.80
Section Paloise 0.42 1.38 -1.00
Stade Francais 0.40 1.86 -1.50
Lyon -0.34 -0.18 -0.20
Montpellier -0.78 -0.96 0.20
Bayonne -2.25 -1.69 -0.60
USA Perpignan -2.37 -0.66 -1.70
Vannes -9.36 -10.00 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 21 11 – 20 -3.00 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Sep 22 27 – 12 8.80 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Bayonne Sep 22 26 – 10 9.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Sep 22 49 – 25 10.40 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Lyon Sep 22 30 – 20 -3.60 FALSE
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sep 22 52 – 34 7.90 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Sep 23 10 – 14 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Sep 28 USA Perpignan 2.70
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sep 29 Bayonne 5.00
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 29 Lyon 5.50
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 29 Racing 92 3.70
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sep 29 Toulon 21.20
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sep 29 Section Paloise 6.50
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 30 Stade Toulousain 11.10

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.02 10.63 -0.60
Taranaki 7.44 5.21 2.20
Canterbury 5.26 6.01 -0.80
Waikato 4.33 5.30 -1.00
Bay of Plenty 4.14 3.52 0.60
Hawke’s Bay 3.44 6.09 -2.70
Tasman 3.14 2.17 1.00
Auckland 2.04 3.00 -1.00
North Harbour 1.79 3.06 -1.30
Northland -2.59 -4.29 1.70
Otago -2.59 -3.26 0.70
Counties Manukau -4.47 -5.22 0.70
Southland -9.08 -10.05 1.00
Manawatu -19.39 -18.73 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 20 19 – 63 3.90 FALSE
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 21 47 – 24 -4.30 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 36 – 28 14.20 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 30 – 25 10.10 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 22 25 – 27 6.10 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Southland Sep 22 27 – 19 16.10 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 22 10 – 28 -12.50 TRUE
8 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 25 31 – 25 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 27 Wellington -11.50
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 Bay of Plenty 9.70
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 28 Hawke’s Bay 4.40
4 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 28 Tasman -2.70
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 29 Canterbury -0.50
6 Southland vs. Waikato Sep 29 Waikato -10.40
7 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 29 Taranaki 29.80
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 02 Tasman 4.10

 

September 23, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.60 12.09 -0.50
Glasgow 9.13 9.39 -0.30
Bulls 8.83 8.83 0.00
Munster 8.47 9.28 -0.80
Stormers 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Lions 6.73 6.73 0.00
Ulster 2.78 2.52 0.30
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Edinburgh 0.58 0.09 0.50
Connacht 0.05 -0.76 0.80
Benetton -0.21 1.02 -1.20
Sharks -2.94 -2.94 0.00
Ospreys -3.45 -2.51 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -3.59 -2.55 -1.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -9.41 -10.65 1.20
Dragons -14.47 -15.41 0.90
Zebre -15.13 -16.17 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Sep 21 22 – 17 19.10 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Leinster Sep 21 31 – 33 -6.50 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Sep 22 23 – 21 -10.40 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Connacht Sep 22 35 – 33 12.50 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Scarlets Sep 22 20 – 20 17.20 FALSE
6 Ulster vs. Glasgow Sep 22 20 – 19 -1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Sep 28 Glasgow 14.80
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Sep 28 Leinster 31.60
3 Lions vs. Ulster Sep 28 Lions 9.40
4 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 29 Bulls 13.70
5 Zebre vs. Munster Sep 29 Munster -18.10
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 29 Cardiff Rugby -3.30
7 Connacht vs. Sharks Sep 29 Connacht 8.50
8 Ospreys vs. Stormers Sep 29 Stormers -4.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 9.47 9.58 -0.10
Saracens 9.36 9.68 -0.30
Bath 7.30 5.55 1.70
Northampton Saints 5.75 7.50 -1.70
Leicester Tigers 4.02 3.27 0.70
Sale Sharks 3.43 4.73 -1.30
Exeter Chiefs 0.48 1.23 -0.70
Harlequins -1.43 -2.73 1.30
Gloucester -8.72 -9.04 0.30
Newcastle Falcons -18.91 -19.02 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Sep 21 38 – 16 4.60 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Sep 21 3 – 24 -22.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 22 14 – 17 4.50 FALSE
4 Gloucester vs. Saracens Sep 22 26 – 35 -12.20 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Sep 23 12 – 11 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 Bristol 24.70
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 Harlequins 24.00
3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 Saracens 12.40
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 Northampton Saints 11.80
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 Leicester Tigers 3.20

 

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.46 6.15 5.30
Panthers 8.22 14.73 -6.50
Roosters 8.06 3.08 5.00
Sharks 6.15 2.94 3.20
Cowboys 4.66 2.47 2.20
Sea Eagles 2.60 -0.48 3.10
Bulldogs -0.76 -13.35 12.60
Knights -1.10 1.84 -2.90
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90
Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60
Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70
Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90
Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70
Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90
Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60
Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 210 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 20 26 – 18 4.00 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Sep 21 40 – 16 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Sep 28 Panthers 2.10
2 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 27 Storm 6.40

 

AFL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 19.68 -11.08 30.80
Brisbane Lions 19.12 17.47 1.60
Western Bulldogs 17.88 6.04 11.80
Sydney Swans 16.86 9.23 7.60
Geelong Cats 14.59 10.50 4.10
GWS Giants 10.13 12.60 -2.50
Port Adelaide Power 8.06 8.83 -0.80
Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10
Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00
Carlton Blues 5.11 9.73 -4.60
Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40
Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80
St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90
Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40
Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30
West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50
North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 215 matches played, 136 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Sep 20 95 – 59 14.90 TRUE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 21 85 – 95 -3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 28 Brisbane Lions -2.30

 

September 19, 2024

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 9.40 10.63 -1.20
Waikato 7.72 5.30 2.40
Canterbury 5.88 6.01 -0.10
Bay of Plenty 4.38 3.52 0.90
Taranaki 4.35 5.21 -0.90
North Harbour 4.06 3.06 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 3.67 6.09 -2.40
Tasman 3.41 2.17 1.20
Auckland 3.33 3.00 0.30
Counties Manukau -3.54 -5.22 1.70
Northland -4.61 -4.29 -0.30
Otago -4.93 -3.26 -1.70
Southland -10.79 -10.05 -0.70
Manawatu -18.87 -18.73 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 13 29 – 41 -13.10 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 14 33 – 20 1.30 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 14 58 – 19 24.80 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 14 50 – 5 2.20 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Sep 15 45 – 17 1.00 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 15 28 – 15 -5.50 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 15 17 – 24 -4.30 TRUE
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 18 26 – 21 -6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 20 Hawke’s Bay 2.30
2 Northland vs. North Harbour Sep 21 North Harbour -5.70
3 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 Canterbury 12.40
4 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 21 Wellington 8.00
5 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 22 Waikato 7.30
6 Auckland vs. Southland Sep 22 Auckland 17.10
7 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 22 Otago -10.90
8 Taranaki vs. North Harbour Sep 25 Taranaki 3.30

 

September 17, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.68 9.68 -0.00
Bristol 9.58 9.58 -0.00
Northampton Saints 7.50 7.50 0.00
Bath 5.55 5.55 -0.00
Sale Sharks 4.73 4.73 0.00
Leicester Tigers 3.27 3.27 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 1.23 1.23 0.00
Harlequins -2.73 -2.73 -0.00
Gloucester -9.04 -9.04 -0.00
Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -19.02 0.00

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Sep 21 Bath 4.60
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Sep 21 Bristol -22.10
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 22 Exeter Chiefs 4.50
4 Gloucester vs. Saracens Sep 22 Saracens -12.20
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Sep 23 Sale Sharks 14.00
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