Posts written by David Scott (1512)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 8, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.78 12.09 0.70
Glasgow 11.26 9.39 1.90
Bulls 9.07 8.83 0.20
Lions 8.69 6.73 2.00
Munster 7.60 9.28 -1.70
Stormers 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Ulster 1.30 2.52 -1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Edinburgh -0.13 0.09 -0.20
Connacht -0.59 -0.76 0.20
Sharks -2.99 -2.94 -0.00
Benetton -3.01 1.02 -4.00
Ospreys -3.13 -2.51 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -3.87 -2.55 -1.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -9.67 -10.65 1.00
Dragons -13.76 -15.41 1.60
Zebre -14.58 -16.17 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 36 – 52 -7.80 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 23 – 24 -4.30 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 55 – 21 11.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 47 – 21 11.10 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 5 – 35 -7.10 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 30 – 33 -5.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 23 – 0 14.30 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 5 – 36 -13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Oct 12 Glasgow 31.30
2 Benetton vs. Sharks Oct 13 Benetton 5.50
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Oct 13 Cardiff Rugby 8.30
4 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 13 Stormers -1.40
5 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 13 Leinster 7.70
6 Ospreys vs. Bulls Oct 13 Bulls -6.70
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Oct 13 Ulster 4.40
8 Dragons vs. Lions Oct 13 Lions -16.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.47 8.76 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.10 4.85 1.20
Toulon 5.95 5.32 0.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.01 3.96 1.10
Racing 92 2.22 2.75 -0.50
Castres Olympique 1.27 -0.09 1.40
Section Paloise 0.95 1.38 -0.40
Clermont 0.47 0.41 0.10
Stade Francais 0.18 1.86 -1.70
Montpellier -0.65 -0.96 0.30
Lyon -0.90 -0.18 -0.70
USA Perpignan -1.58 -0.66 -0.90
Bayonne -2.01 -1.69 -0.30
Vannes -9.74 -10.00 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Vannes vs. Racing 92 Oct 05 24 – 27 -5.80 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Oct 06 30 – 27 14.50 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 06 29 – 20 7.10 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Oct 06 43 – 22 12.80 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 06 11 – 10 4.40 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 06 28 – 23 -1.50 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Oct 07 19 – 18 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 12 Stade Rochelais -1.60
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Oct 12 Bordeaux Begles 13.10
3 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Oct 12 Lyon 5.40
4 Montpellier vs. Vannes Oct 12 Montpellier 15.60
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Oct 12 Racing 92 2.80
6 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Oct 12 Section Paloise 6.20
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 12 Stade Toulousain 14.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.97 9.68 0.30
Bristol 8.49 9.58 -1.10
Bath 6.33 5.55 0.80
Leicester Tigers 4.94 3.27 1.70
Northampton Saints 4.16 7.50 -3.30
Sale Sharks 1.65 4.73 -3.10
Exeter Chiefs 1.11 1.23 -0.10
Harlequins -1.42 -2.73 1.30
Gloucester -4.83 -9.04 4.20
Newcastle Falcons -19.65 -19.02 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Oct 05 33 – 29 14.10 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 05 31 – 27 15.20 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 06 26 – 36 7.90 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 10 – 42 -14.60 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 07 29 – 14 15.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 12 Sale Sharks 27.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Oct 13 Bristol -0.90
3 Gloucester vs. Bath Oct 13 Bath -4.70
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Oct 13 Leicester Tigers 7.30
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 14 Saracens -4.90

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 7.16 10.63 -3.50
Bay of Plenty 7.08 3.52 3.60
Tasman 6.76 2.17 4.60
Taranaki 6.40 5.21 1.20
Waikato 5.74 5.30 0.40
Canterbury 2.96 6.01 -3.10
North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay 0.61 6.09 -5.50
Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60
Counties Manukau -0.14 -5.22 5.10
Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70
Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10
Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30
Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 04 28 – 31 -2.80 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 26 – 45 -14.40 TRUE
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 05 59 – 35 -10.60 FALSE
4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 05 46 – 28 8.00 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 05 36 – 19 -2.30 FALSE
6 Tasman vs. Taranaki Oct 06 29 – 42 5.90 FALSE
7 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 06 24 – 26 -4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Oct 11 Wellington 10.30
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 12 Bay of Plenty 9.50
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Oct 12 Taranaki 3.70
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Tasman 6.80

 

October 2, 2024

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 7.81 10.63 -2.80
Waikato 6.16 5.30 0.90
North Harbour 5.63 3.06 2.60
Hawke’s Bay 5.48 6.09 -0.60
Bay of Plenty 5.31 3.52 1.80
Taranaki 3.64 5.21 -1.60
Canterbury 3.45 6.01 -2.60
Auckland 2.64 3.00 -0.40
Tasman 1.91 2.17 -0.30
Otago -2.02 -3.26 1.20
Counties Manukau -2.39 -5.22 2.80
Northland -6.07 -4.29 -1.80
Southland -10.90 -10.05 -0.90
Manawatu -17.16 -18.73 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Wellington Sep 27 51 – 12 -12.90 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 53 – 13 10.80 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sep 28 36 – 35 6.10 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Tasman Sep 28 47 – 31 -2.40 FALSE
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 29 65 – 19 0.10 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Waikato Sep 29 14 – 38 -12.30 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Sep 29 33 – 31 26.90 TRUE
8 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 02 31 – 17 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 04 Otago -1.00
2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 Counties Manukau -11.80
3 Southland vs. North Harbour Oct 05 North Harbour -13.50
4 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 05 Wellington 5.30
5 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 05 Canterbury 0.30
6 Tasman vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Tasman 1.30
7 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 06 Auckland 0.30

 

October 1, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.20 12.09 -0.90
Glasgow 10.36 9.39 1.00
Bulls 7.97 8.83 -0.90
Lions 7.12 6.73 0.40
Munster 6.65 9.28 -2.60
Stormers 5.49 6.75 -1.30
Ulster 2.39 2.52 -0.10
Edinburgh 1.44 0.09 1.40
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Connacht -0.22 -0.76 0.50
Benetton -1.44 1.02 -2.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Sharks -2.67 -2.94 0.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.97 -2.55 -0.40
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -10.04 -10.65 0.60
Zebre -13.31 -16.17 2.90
Dragons -14.08 -15.41 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Sep 28 42 – 10 14.80 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Dragons Sep 28 34 – 6 31.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Ulster Sep 28 35 – 22 9.40 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 29 22 – 16 13.70 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Munster Sep 29 42 – 33 -18.10 FALSE
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 29 15 – 24 -3.30 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Sharks Sep 29 36 – 30 8.50 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Stormers Sep 29 37 – 24 -4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 Glasgow -7.80
2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 Connacht -4.30
3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 Lions 11.20
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 Bulls 11.10
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 Leinster -7.10
6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 Sharks -5.90
7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 Munster 14.30
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 Stormers -13.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.86 8.76 0.10
Toulon 5.95 5.32 0.60
Stade Rochelais 5.75 4.85 0.90
Bordeaux Begles 5.48 3.96 1.50
Racing 92 2.38 2.75 -0.40
Castres Olympique 0.88 -0.09 1.00
Section Paloise 0.75 1.38 -0.60
Clermont 0.47 0.41 0.10
Stade Francais 0.07 1.86 -1.80
Lyon -0.54 -0.18 -0.40
Montpellier -0.54 -0.96 0.40
USA Perpignan -1.38 -0.66 -0.70
Bayonne -2.49 -1.69 -0.80
Vannes -9.91 -10.00 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Sep 28 33 – 3 2.70 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sep 29 28 – 27 5.00 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 29 40 – 38 5.50 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 29 16 – 17 3.70 FALSE
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sep 29 54 – 19 21.20 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sep 29 30 – 16 6.50 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 30 12 – 16 11.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Vannes vs. Racing 92 Oct 05 Racing 92 -5.80
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Oct 06 Bordeaux Begles 14.50
3 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 06 Stade Francais 7.10
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Oct 06 Stade Rochelais 12.80
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 06 USA Perpignan 4.40
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 06 Stade Toulousain -1.50
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Oct 07 Clermont 1.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.02 9.68 0.30
Bath 8.12 5.55 2.60
Bristol 6.70 9.58 -2.90
Northampton Saints 5.17 7.50 -2.30
Leicester Tigers 3.20 3.27 -0.10
Sale Sharks 2.77 4.73 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 1.06 1.23 -0.20
Harlequins -2.43 -2.73 0.30
Gloucester -5.95 -9.04 3.10
Newcastle Falcons -17.91 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Gloucester Sep 28 41 – 44 24.70 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 29 28 – 14 24.00 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Sep 29 45 – 26 12.40 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 29 30 – 24 11.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Sep 30 15 – 20 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Northampton Saints 14.10
2 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Oct 05 Sale Sharks 15.20
3 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 06 Bath 7.90
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 06 Leicester Tigers -14.60
5 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 07 Saracens 15.50

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

By

Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.87 6.15 6.70
Panthers 9.30 14.73 -5.40
Roosters 6.65 3.08 3.60
Sharks 5.06 2.94 2.10
Cowboys 4.66 2.47 2.20
Sea Eagles 2.60 -0.48 3.10
Bulldogs -0.76 -13.35 12.60
Knights -1.10 1.84 -2.90
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90
Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60
Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70
Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90
Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70
Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90
Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60
Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Sharks Sep 28 26 – 6 2.10 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Roosters Sep 27 48 – 18 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Oct 06 Panthers 0.80

 

September 26, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.46 8.76 0.70
Stade Rochelais 5.46 4.85 0.60
Toulon 5.39 5.32 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.88 3.96 0.90
Racing 92 2.67 2.75 -0.10
Clermont 1.47 0.41 1.10
Castres Olympique 0.67 -0.09 0.80
Section Paloise 0.42 1.38 -1.00
Stade Francais 0.40 1.86 -1.50
Lyon -0.34 -0.18 -0.20
Montpellier -0.78 -0.96 0.20
Bayonne -2.25 -1.69 -0.60
USA Perpignan -2.37 -0.66 -1.70
Vannes -9.36 -10.00 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 21 11 – 20 -3.00 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Sep 22 27 – 12 8.80 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Bayonne Sep 22 26 – 10 9.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Sep 22 49 – 25 10.40 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Lyon Sep 22 30 – 20 -3.60 FALSE
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sep 22 52 – 34 7.90 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Sep 23 10 – 14 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Sep 28 USA Perpignan 2.70
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sep 29 Bayonne 5.00
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 29 Lyon 5.50
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 29 Racing 92 3.70
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sep 29 Toulon 21.20
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sep 29 Section Paloise 6.50
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 30 Stade Toulousain 11.10

 

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