Posts written by David Scott (1471)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 6, 2024

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.66 -4.44 14.10
Bulls 5.81 -0.48 6.30
Sharks 5.78 0.96 4.80
Cheetahs 1.82 6.37 -4.60
Western Province -1.27 0.59 -1.90
Pumas -1.84 4.30 -6.10
Griquas -3.52 -2.59 -0.90
Griffons -26.44 -14.70 -11.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 44 – 31 -5.10 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 33 – 57 4.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 75 – 19 31.40 TRUE
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 39 – 30 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 06 Griquas 1.20
2 Lions vs. Griffons Sep 07 Lions 39.60
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 Cheetahs -0.20
4 Sharks vs. Bulls Sep 08 Sharks 3.50

 

August 26, 2024

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 19.83 6.04 13.80
Hawthorn Hawks 18.31 -11.08 29.40
Brisbane Lions 16.61 17.47 -0.90
Sydney Swans 16.44 9.23 7.20
Port Adelaide Power 14.33 8.83 5.50
Geelong Cats 9.97 10.50 -0.50
GWS Giants 9.90 12.60 -2.70
Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10
Carlton Blues 6.03 9.73 -3.70
Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00
Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40
Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80
St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90
Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40
Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30
West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50
North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Aug 23 57 – 103 0.10 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 24 168 – 75 50.20 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 24 66 – 94 -12.40 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 24 170 – 46 58.70 TRUE
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 24 87 – 67 38.60 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 24 121 – 90 19.80 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Aug 25 98 – 61 16.00 TRUE
8 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 25 74 – 76 7.90 FALSE
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 25 67 – 87 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats Sep 05 Port Adelaide Power 13.40
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 06 Hawthorn Hawks -7.50
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants Sep 07 Sydney Swans 15.50
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Sep 07 Brisbane Lions 19.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.58 3.08 6.50
Storm 9.15 6.15 3.00
Panthers 7.56 14.73 -7.20
Sharks 7.02 2.94 4.10
Sea Eagles 4.14 -0.48 4.60
Bulldogs 2.45 -13.35 15.80
Cowboys 1.58 2.47 -0.90
Broncos 0.61 9.07 -8.50
Knights -1.92 1.84 -3.80
Warriors -3.95 -0.07 -3.90
Dolphins -5.26 -7.09 1.80
Eels -5.37 0.14 -5.50
Rabbitohs -5.66 0.87 -6.50
Dragons -5.68 -6.93 1.20
Raiders -6.86 -4.31 -2.50
Titans -7.21 -7.89 0.70
Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 34 – 26 -16.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 18 – 34 2.90 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 23 30 – 24 9.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 24 22 – 18 -13.50 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Dolphins Aug 24 48 – 6 14.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 24 16 – 36 1.90 FALSE
7 Titans vs. Roosters Aug 25 22 – 48 -12.10 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 25 10 – 38 -7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 Storm -4.60
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Bulldogs 1.30
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 Panthers 16.20
4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 Eels 3.30
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 Broncos -5.90
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 Sharks 18.00
7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 Knights 8.30
8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 Roosters 19.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 9.09 10.63 -1.50
Hawke’s Bay 6.95 6.09 0.90
Canterbury 6.73 6.01 0.70
Taranaki 5.54 5.21 0.30
Tasman 4.49 2.17 2.30
Waikato 4.35 5.30 -1.00
North Harbour 4.01 3.06 0.90
Bay of Plenty 2.47 3.52 -1.10
Auckland 2.29 3.00 -0.70
Otago -2.20 -3.26 1.10
Northland -5.14 -4.29 -0.90
Counties Manukau -7.54 -5.22 -2.30
Southland -10.38 -10.05 -0.30
Manawatu -17.19 -18.73 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 55 – 30 13.40 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 3 – 48 -4.40 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 21 – 27 -0.00 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 24 – 39 -12.30 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 31 – 26 -3.80 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 39 – 31 32.40 TRUE
7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 43 – 29 0.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 Northland 8.20
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 North Harbour 14.60
3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 Taranaki 10.70
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 Waikato 5.10
5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 Tasman 5.00
6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 Canterbury 0.60
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 Hawke’s Bay -21.10
8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 Waikato 12.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 8.26 -0.48 8.70
Lions 7.21 -4.44 11.60
Sharks 3.64 0.96 2.70
Cheetahs 3.45 6.37 -2.90
Pumas -1.22 4.30 -5.50
Western Province -1.89 0.59 -2.50
Griquas -5.15 -2.59 -2.60
Griffons -24.30 -14.70 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 24 47 – 24 15.40 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 24 23 – 31 -0.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 25 21 – 38 3.40 FALSE
4 Griffons vs. Pumas Aug 25 26 – 45 -19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 30 Cheetahs -5.10
2 Bulls vs. Lions Aug 31 Bulls 4.50
3 Sharks vs. Griffons Aug 31 Sharks 31.40
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Sep 01 Western Province 2.80

 

August 20, 2024

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.52 -0.48 8.00
Lions 5.41 -4.44 9.80
Cheetahs 5.26 6.37 -1.10
Sharks 2.91 0.96 2.00
Pumas -1.13 4.30 -5.40
Western Province -1.16 0.59 -1.70
Griquas -4.41 -2.59 -1.80
Griffons -24.39 -14.70 -9.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Bulls Aug 17 24 – 40 -2.70 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Western Province Aug 17 41 – 22 8.00 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Aug 18 20 – 25 8.30 FALSE
4 Griffons vs. Griquas Aug 18 7 – 59 -9.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 24 Bulls 15.40
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 24 Sharks -0.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 25 Cheetahs 3.40
4 Griffons vs. Pumas Aug 25 Pumas -19.80

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.72 3.08 5.60
Panthers 8.62 14.73 -6.10
Storm 7.50 6.15 1.30
Sharks 5.77 2.94 2.80
Sea Eagles 5.58 -0.48 6.10
Cowboys 1.58 2.47 -0.90
Bulldogs 1.31 -13.35 14.70
Broncos 0.83 9.07 -8.20
Warriors -2.81 -0.07 -2.70
Knights -3.23 1.84 -5.10
Dolphins -3.61 -7.09 3.50
Rabbitohs -4.34 0.87 -5.20
Dragons -4.43 -6.93 2.50
Eels -5.59 0.14 -5.70
Titans -6.36 -7.89 1.50
Raiders -7.92 -4.31 -3.60
Wests Tigers -13.61 -13.15 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 15 22 – 24 5.00 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 16 24 – 10 15.60 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 16 38 – 14 16.30 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Aug 17 30 – 10 2.80 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 17 42 – 4 9.10 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 17 18 – 16 -7.40 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 18 32 – 16 3.40 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 18 19 – 18 13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Sea Eagles -16.20
2 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Aug 23 Warriors 2.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 23 Broncos 9.40
4 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 24 Panthers -13.50
5 Storm vs. Dolphins Aug 24 Storm 14.10
6 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Aug 24 Rabbitohs 1.90
7 Titans vs. Roosters Aug 25 Roosters -12.10
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 25 Sharks -7.20

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.46 10.63 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.48 6.09 -0.60
Taranaki 5.38 5.21 0.20
Waikato 5.12 5.30 -0.20
Canterbury 4.92 6.01 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 3.59 3.52 0.10
Tasman 3.26 2.17 1.10
North Harbour 3.00 3.06 -0.10
Auckland 2.37 3.00 -0.60
Otago -2.62 -3.26 0.60
Northland -4.34 -4.29 -0.10
Counties Manukau -5.04 -5.22 0.20
Southland -9.43 -10.05 0.60
Manawatu -18.68 -18.73 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Auckland Aug 16 27 – 25 -3.30 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 17 35 – 18 17.40 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 17 22 – 7 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 17 31 – 17 19.10 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Aug 18 24 – 20 3.50 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 18 26 – 19 8.40 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Waikato Aug 18 20 – 26 -7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Aug 23 Hawke’s Bay 12.80
2 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 24 Tasman -5.30
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Aug 24 Auckland 0.50
4 Southland vs. Taranaki Aug 24 Taranaki -11.80
5 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 25 Bay of Plenty -3.20
6 Wellington vs. Manawatu Aug 25 Wellington 32.10
7 North Harbour vs. Waikato Aug 25 North Harbour 0.90
8 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 28 Canterbury 2.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 25

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Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 18.37 6.04 12.30
Brisbane Lions 17.93 17.47 0.50
Sydney Swans 15.21 9.23 6.00
Hawthorn Hawks 14.48 -11.08 25.60
Port Adelaide Power 12.74 8.83 3.90
GWS Giants 11.36 12.60 -1.20
Geelong Cats 7.29 10.50 -3.20
Carlton Blues 7.13 9.73 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 6.94 0.40 6.50
Adelaide Crows 4.37 9.56 -5.20
Melbourne Demons 3.97 13.91 -9.90
Collingwood 3.88 14.87 -11.00
St Kilda Saints -0.80 -0.63 -0.20
Gold Coast Suns -8.27 -4.60 -3.70
Essendon Bombers -11.65 -17.70 6.00
Richmond Tigers -29.72 -6.13 -23.60
West Coast Eagles -33.88 -43.10 9.20
North Melbourne -35.18 -25.73 -9.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 59 – 98 -14.50 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 17 63 – 117 3.70 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 17 101 – 92 14.70 TRUE
4 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 17 79 – 78 -6.80 FALSE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 17 80 – 58 4.50 TRUE
6 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 107 – 89 -1.90 FALSE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 18 138 – 42 47.60 TRUE
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 18 131 – 68 41.20 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Aug 18 34 – 99 -27.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Aug 23 Melbourne Demons 0.10
2 Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 24 Geelong Cats 50.20
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 24 Gold Coast Suns -12.40
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 24 Hawthorn Hawks 58.70
5 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 24 Brisbane Lions 38.60
6 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 24 Sydney Swans 19.80
7 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Aug 25 Western Bulldogs 16.00
8 Carlton Blues vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 25 Carlton Blues 7.90
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 25 Fremantle Dockers 3.20

 

August 13, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.07 14.73 -5.70
Roosters 8.24 3.08 5.20
Storm 7.06 6.15 0.90
Sharks 6.54 2.94 3.60
Sea Eagles 5.70 -0.48 6.20
Broncos 0.83 9.07 -8.20
Bulldogs 0.26 -13.35 13.60
Cowboys -0.13 2.47 -2.60
Dolphins -2.57 -7.09 4.50
Warriors -2.92 -0.07 -2.80
Rabbitohs -3.75 0.87 -4.60
Knights -4.01 1.84 -5.80
Eels -5.11 0.14 -5.20
Dragons -5.21 -6.93 1.70
Titans -5.58 -7.89 2.30
Raiders -6.21 -4.31 -1.90
Wests Tigers -14.20 -13.15 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 08 16 – 28 -7.20 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 09 0 – 44 -4.50 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 09 34 – 36 -12.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 24 – 46 -7.10 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 10 18 – 42 5.50 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 10 – 28 -0.30 TRUE
7 Dolphins vs. Warriors Aug 11 34 – 32 8.10 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 11 34 – 18 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 15 Panthers 5.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Aug 16 Sea Eagles 15.60
3 Roosters vs. Eels Aug 16 Roosters 16.30
4 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Aug 17 Bulldogs 2.80
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 17 Cowboys 9.10
6 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 17 Rabbitohs -7.40
7 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 18 Dragons 3.40
8 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 18 Sharks 13.50

 

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