Posts written by David Scott (1471)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 17, 2024

AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Final

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 19.68 -11.08 30.80
Brisbane Lions 18.35 17.47 0.90
Western Bulldogs 17.88 6.04 11.80
Sydney Swans 15.39 9.23 6.20
Geelong Cats 15.36 10.50 4.90
GWS Giants 10.13 12.60 -2.50
Port Adelaide Power 9.53 8.83 0.70
Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10
Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00
Carlton Blues 5.11 9.73 -4.60
Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40
Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80
St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90
Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40
Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30
West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50
North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 213 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 13 75 – 72 -2.30 FALSE
2 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 14 100 – 105 2.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Sep 20 Sydney Swans 14.90
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 21 Brisbane Lions -3.00

 

September 12, 2024

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 9.74 10.63 -0.90
Canterbury 6.87 6.01 0.90
Taranaki 5.58 5.21 0.40
Bay of Plenty 5.29 3.52 1.80
Hawke’s Bay 5.14 6.09 -1.00
Waikato 4.93 5.30 -0.40
Auckland 3.13 3.00 0.10
Tasman 3.12 2.17 1.00
North Harbour 2.94 3.06 -0.10
Otago -3.18 -3.26 0.10
Counties Manukau -4.15 -5.22 1.10
Northland -5.36 -4.29 -1.10
Southland -10.09 -10.05 -0.00
Manawatu -20.49 -18.73 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 87.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 68 – 14 25.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 36 – 12 23.70 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 36 – 32 2.90 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 16 – 34 -6.30 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 24 – 25 6.90 FALSE
6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 25 – 19 2.90 TRUE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 25 – 14 2.10 TRUE
8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 28 – 32 -11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Canterbury Sep 13 Canterbury -14.00
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Sep 14 Bay of Plenty 2.70
3 North Harbour vs. Manawatu Sep 14 North Harbour 26.40
4 Waikato vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 14 Waikato 2.80
5 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Sep 15 Counties Manukau 2.00
6 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 15 Wellington -3.60
7 Northland vs. Auckland Sep 15 Auckland -5.50
8 Manawatu vs. Southland Sep 18 Southland -7.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.13 10.63 1.50
Waikato 6.28 5.30 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.35 6.09 -0.70
Canterbury 4.52 6.01 -1.50
Taranaki 4.31 5.21 -0.90
Tasman 3.35 2.17 1.20
Bay of Plenty 2.35 3.52 -1.20
Auckland 2.09 3.00 -0.90
North Harbour 2.06 3.06 -1.00
Otago -2.36 -3.26 0.90
Counties Manukau -4.21 -5.22 1.00
Northland -5.33 -4.29 -1.00
Southland -9.07 -10.05 1.00
Manawatu -17.98 -18.73 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 26 – 31 8.80 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 33 – 36 11.30 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 22 – 18 11.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 39 – 21 5.30 TRUE
5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 34 – 15 1.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 21 – 46 -1.60 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 26 – 38 -21.80 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 34 – 19 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Bay of Plenty 23.30
2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 Wellington 24.20
3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Auckland 3.00
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 Canterbury -3.90
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 Hawke’s Bay 5.00
6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 Taranaki 1.00
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 Counties Manukau 4.10
8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 Wellington -11.50

 

September 10, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.29 8.76 0.50
Toulon 5.44 5.32 0.10
Stade Rochelais 4.73 4.85 -0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.43 3.96 0.50
Racing 92 2.79 2.75 0.00
Stade Francais 1.39 1.86 -0.50
Clermont 1.38 0.41 1.00
Section Paloise 0.41 1.38 -1.00
Lyon 0.24 -0.18 0.40
Castres Olympique -0.13 -0.09 -0.00
USA Perpignan -1.05 -0.66 -0.40
Bayonne -1.30 -1.69 0.40
Montpellier -1.37 -0.96 -0.40
Vannes -10.52 -10.00 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Sep 07 21 – 9 5.50 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Sep 08 31 – 28 3.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sep 08 39 – 7 5.50 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Lyon Sep 08 22 – 26 5.70 FALSE
5 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sep 08 46 – 26 8.60 TRUE
6 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Sep 09 19 – 15 6.00 TRUE
7 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 09 18 – 43 -12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Sep 14 Toulon 12.10
2 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Sep 15 Racing 92 7.90
3 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Sep 15 Section Paloise 8.20
4 Stade Francais vs. Vannes Sep 15 Stade Francais 18.40
5 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Sep 15 USA Perpignan 6.80
6 Lyon vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 15 Lyon 2.30
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 16 Stade Toulousain 11.10

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.20 6.15 4.00
Roosters 8.07 3.08 5.00
Sharks 7.14 2.94 4.20
Panthers 7.13 14.73 -7.60
Cowboys 4.70 2.47 2.20
Sea Eagles 3.63 -0.48 4.10
Bulldogs -0.72 -13.35 12.60
Knights -0.87 1.84 -2.70
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -3.15 -7.09 3.90
Broncos -3.54 9.07 -12.60
Eels -3.54 0.14 -3.70
Raiders -5.26 -4.31 -0.90
Rabbitohs -5.81 0.87 -6.70
Dragons -6.05 -6.93 0.90
Titans -7.25 -7.89 0.60
Wests Tigers -13.94 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 05 12 – 50 -7.10 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 06 26 – 60 -3.80 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 28 – 36 -11.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 07 24 – 26 2.80 FALSE
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Sep 07 6 – 44 2.30 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Titans Sep 07 18 – 12 19.00 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 08 20 – 40 2.10 FALSE
8 Knights vs. Dolphins Sep 08 14 – 6 4.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Sep 13 Panthers 2.10
2 Storm vs. Sharks Sep 14 Storm 6.10
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Sep 14 Cowboys 8.60
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 15 Sea Eagles -1.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 11.23 -4.44 15.70
Bulls 6.54 -0.48 7.00
Sharks 5.05 0.96 4.10
Cheetahs 4.14 6.37 -2.20
Western Province -1.94 0.59 -2.50
Griquas -2.85 -2.59 -0.30
Pumas -4.16 4.30 -8.50
Griffons -28.01 -14.70 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Sep 06 37 – 29 1.20 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Griffons Sep 07 62 – 5 39.60 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Sep 07 14 – 41 -0.20 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Bulls Sep 08 24 – 28 3.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Cheetahs Sep 14 Lions 10.60
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 15 Bulls 5.00

 

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 20.27 -11.08 31.30
Western Bulldogs 17.88 6.04 11.80
Brisbane Lions 17.54 17.47 0.10
Sydney Swans 15.39 9.23 6.20
Geelong Cats 15.36 10.50 4.90
GWS Giants 10.95 12.60 -1.70
Port Adelaide Power 8.94 8.83 0.10
Collingwood 6.73 14.87 -8.10
Fremantle Dockers 5.35 0.40 5.00
Carlton Blues 5.11 9.73 -4.60
Adelaide Crows 3.14 9.56 -6.40
Melbourne Demons 1.12 13.91 -12.80
St Kilda Saints 0.29 -0.63 0.90
Gold Coast Suns -6.56 -4.60 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -10.33 -17.70 7.40
Richmond Tigers -31.43 -6.13 -25.30
West Coast Eagles -36.56 -43.10 6.50
North Melbourne -39.02 -25.73 -13.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 211 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats Sep 05 54 – 138 13.40 FALSE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 06 62 – 99 -7.50 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants Sep 07 88 – 82 15.50 TRUE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Sep 07 99 – 71 19.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sep 13 Hawthorn Hawks -2.30
2 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions Sep 14 GWS Giants 2.40

 

September 6, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.76 8.76 -0.00
Toulon 5.32 5.32 0.00
Stade Rochelais 4.85 4.85 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.96 3.96 0.00
Racing 92 2.75 2.75 -0.00
Stade Francais 1.86 1.86 -0.00
Section Paloise 1.38 1.38 -0.00
Clermont 0.41 0.41 0.00
Castres Olympique -0.09 -0.09 0.00
Lyon -0.18 -0.18 -0.00
USA Perpignan -0.66 -0.66 -0.00
Montpellier -0.96 -0.96 -0.00
Bayonne -1.69 -1.69 -0.00
Vannes -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Sep 07 Bayonne 5.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Sep 08 Castres Olympique 3.70
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sep 08 Clermont 5.50
4 Montpellier vs. Lyon Sep 08 Montpellier 5.70
5 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sep 08 Bordeaux Begles 8.60
6 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Sep 09 Stade Rochelais 6.00
7 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 09 Stade Toulousain -12.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

My apologies for missing the first game this week—I am travelling in Europe and have had little opportunity to work on the predictions in time.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.38 6.15 2.20
Roosters 8.29 3.08 5.20
Panthers 7.93 14.73 -6.80
Sharks 5.81 2.94 2.90
Sea Eagles 4.96 -0.48 5.40
Cowboys 2.36 2.47 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.63 -13.35 15.00
Knights -1.08 1.84 -2.90
Broncos -1.72 9.07 -10.80
Warriors -2.75 -0.07 -2.70
Dolphins -2.94 -7.09 4.20
Eels -5.32 0.14 -5.50
Raiders -5.57 -4.31 -1.30
Dragons -5.73 -6.93 1.20
Rabbitohs -6.03 0.87 -6.90
Titans -8.05 -7.89 -0.20
Wests Tigers -12.16 -13.15 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 118 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 29 38 – 30 -4.60 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 22 – 34 1.30 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Aug 30 34 – 12 16.20 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 31 44 – 40 3.30 TRUE
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 31 40 – 6 -5.90 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Warriors Aug 31 28 – 30 18.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Titans Sep 01 36 – 14 8.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Raiders Sep 01 12 – 14 19.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 05 Storm -7.10
2 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Sep 06 Eels -3.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 06 Roosters -11.30
4 Dragons vs. Raiders Sep 07 Dragons 2.80
5 Bulldogs vs. Cowboys Sep 07 Bulldogs 2.30
6 Panthers vs. Titans Sep 07 Panthers 19.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Sep 08 Sea Eagles 2.10
8 Knights vs. Dolphins Sep 08 Knights 4.90

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

By

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 12.13 10.63 1.50
Waikato 6.28 5.30 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.35 6.09 -0.70
Canterbury 4.52 6.01 -1.50
Taranaki 4.31 5.21 -0.90
Tasman 3.35 2.17 1.20
Bay of Plenty 2.35 3.52 -1.20
Auckland 2.09 3.00 -0.90
North Harbour 2.06 3.06 -1.00
Otago -2.36 -3.26 0.90
Counties Manukau -4.21 -5.22 1.00
Northland -5.33 -4.29 -1.00
Southland -9.07 -10.05 1.00
Manawatu -17.98 -18.73 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 30 26 – 31 8.80 FALSE
2 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 31 33 – 36 11.30 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Otago Aug 31 22 – 18 11.50 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Auckland Aug 31 39 – 21 5.30 TRUE
5 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 31 34 – 15 1.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Wellington Sep 01 21 – 46 -1.60 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 26 – 38 -21.80 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. Northland Sep 04 34 – 19 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sep 06 Bay of Plenty 23.30
2 Wellington vs. Southland Sep 07 Wellington 24.20
3 Auckland vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Auckland 3.00
4 Otago vs. Canterbury Sep 07 Canterbury -3.90
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Sep 07 Hawke’s Bay 5.00
6 Taranaki vs. Waikato Sep 08 Taranaki 1.00
7 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Sep 08 Counties Manukau 4.10
8 Otago vs. Wellington Sep 11 Wellington -11.50

 

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