Posts written by David Scott (1518)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

January 3, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 5.93 6.82 -0.90
Leicester Tigers 5.27 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 5.18 -0.89 6.10
Harlequins 3.52 1.93 1.60
Northampton Saints 3.00 2.66 0.30
Bath 2.67 -1.26 3.90
Sale Sharks 2.14 6.46 -4.30
Bristol 1.31 1.00 0.30
Gloucester -5.38 -1.45 -3.90
Newcastle Falcons -12.89 -10.63 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 14 – 24 4.70 FALSE
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 37 – 19 26.30 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 21 – 17 7.60 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 32 – 26 16.80 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 35 – 22 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 Harlequins -10.40
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 Sale Sharks 6.80
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 Exeter Chiefs 8.20
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 Leicester Tigers 5.30
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 Bath 14.00

 

December 28, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.06 10.73 1.30
Bulls 10.75 9.00 1.80
Munster 9.42 10.54 -1.10
Stormers 7.17 8.93 -1.80
Glasgow 6.76 4.19 2.60
Ulster 4.49 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 2.81 3.17 -0.40
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Edinburgh -0.14 -2.26 2.10
Sharks -0.89 0.85 -1.70
Benetton -3.02 -5.12 2.10
Cardiff Rugby -3.70 -5.16 1.50
Ospreys -5.05 -7.79 2.70
Scarlets -9.54 -2.23 -7.30
Dragons -14.69 -8.14 -6.60
Zebre -16.69 -20.25 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 23 22 – 10 8.10 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 23 20 – 19 4.30 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 23 24 – 31 -12.80 TRUE
4 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 26 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 55 – 21 9.40 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 11 – 25 -0.40 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 3 – 9 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 30 Benetton 15.70
2 Bulls vs. Lions Dec 31 Bulls 12.50
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 31 Glasgow -4.90
4 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 31 Stormers 10.10
5 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 01 Munster -4.60
6 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Ospreys 0.60
7 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 Scarlets -3.10
8 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 02 Leinster 9.60

 

December 24, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.36 3.42 2.90
Stade Toulousain 5.84 7.24 -1.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.07 4.07 1.00
Stade Rochelais 4.83 6.40 -1.60
Toulon 4.27 3.11 1.20
Stade Francais 3.15 2.62 0.50
Section Paloise 1.39 -0.44 1.80
Castres Olympique 1.22 -0.39 1.60
Clermont 1.06 1.47 -0.40
Lyon 0.49 2.97 -2.50
Montpellier -0.54 2.09 -2.60
Bayonne -1.30 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.31 -3.64 -1.70
US Oyonnax -8.92 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Dec 23 46 – 10 9.50 TRUE
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Dec 23 36 – 10 0.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 30 – 21 4.30 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax Dec 24 66 – 10 19.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Dec 24 22 – 11 6.40 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 24 18 – 13 4.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Dec 24 25 – 17 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 Clermont 2.50
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 Section Paloise -3.80
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 Racing 92 -1.20
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 Lyon 7.50
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 Stade Rochelais 5.50
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 Toulon 7.60
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 Castres Olympique 13.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.67 6.82 -0.10
Leicester Tigers 4.78 6.13 -1.30
Harlequins 4.49 1.93 2.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.90 -0.89 4.80
Northampton Saints 3.36 2.66 0.70
Bath 3.16 -1.26 4.40
Bristol 2.60 1.00 1.60
Sale Sharks 1.78 6.46 -4.70
Gloucester -6.35 -1.45 -4.90
Newcastle Falcons -13.64 -10.63 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Dec 23 13 – 21 -10.80 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Dec 23 22 – 20 0.90 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 24 29 – 10 2.20 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 24 29 – 31 -4.10 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 24 25 – 17 3.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 30 Bristol 4.70
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 31 Saracens 26.30
3 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 31 Northampton Saints 7.60
4 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Dec 31 Harlequins 16.80
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Jan 01 Leicester Tigers 7.60

 

December 5, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 11.48 9.00 2.50
Leinster 11.39 10.73 0.70
Munster 10.09 10.54 -0.50
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 6.38 4.19 2.20
Ulster 4.82 7.80 -3.00
Connacht 2.48 3.17 -0.70
Lions 0.26 -4.26 4.50
Edinburgh 0.25 -2.26 2.50
Sharks -0.89 0.85 -1.70
Benetton -2.43 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -5.48 -5.16 -0.30
Ospreys -6.10 -7.79 1.70
Scarlets -8.49 -2.23 -6.30
Dragons -12.90 -8.14 -4.80
Zebre -17.28 -20.25 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Glasgow Dec 02 40 – 29 6.90 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Dec 02 44 – 10 11.00 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 03 23 – 29 7.00 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Dragons Dec 03 49 – 24 15.70 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Dec 03 31 – 7 28.70 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Dec 03 24 – 27 10.70 FALSE
7 Benetton vs. Ospreys Dec 03 18 – 13 8.30 TRUE
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Dec 03 22 – 24 -8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 23 Glasgow 8.10
2 Ulster vs. Connacht Dec 23 Ulster 4.30
3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 23 Benetton -12.80
4 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 Sharks 0.80
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 Bulls -3.00
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 9.40
7 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Ospreys -0.40
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Munster 0.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 5.84 7.24 -1.40
Racing 92 5.30 3.42 1.90
Stade Rochelais 4.84 6.40 -1.60
Bordeaux Begles 4.26 4.07 0.20
Toulon 4.26 3.11 1.10
Stade Francais 3.14 2.62 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.46 -0.39 1.90
Lyon 1.30 2.97 -1.70
Clermont 1.29 1.47 -0.20
Section Paloise 1.16 -0.44 1.60
Bayonne -0.53 -1.32 0.80
Montpellier -0.78 2.09 -2.90
USA Perpignan -6.08 -3.64 -2.40
US Oyonnax -7.87 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Dec 03 34 – 19 5.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 03 29 – 14 5.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Dec 03 23 – 18 2.20 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Dec 03 35 – 6 16.60 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Dec 03 36 – 13 8.60 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 03 23 – 29 -5.60 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 04 27 – 12 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Dec 23 Bordeaux Begles 9.50
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Dec 23 USA Perpignan 0.90
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 Montpellier 4.30
4 Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax Dec 24 Racing 92 19.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Dec 24 Section Paloise 6.40
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 24 Stade Francais 4.80
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Dec 24 Stade Toulousain 8.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.79 6.82 -0.00
Leicester Tigers 6.24 6.13 0.10
Harlequins 4.87 1.93 2.90
Northampton Saints 3.57 2.66 0.90
Bristol 2.88 1.00 1.90
Bath 2.78 -1.26 4.00
Exeter Chiefs 2.44 -0.89 3.30
Sale Sharks 1.67 6.46 -4.80
Gloucester -6.56 -1.45 -5.10
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Dec 02 36 – 3 4.40 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 03 41 – 24 4.10 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Gloucester Dec 03 51 – 26 13.40 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 03 12 – 18 12.40 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 04 47 – 3 22.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Dec 23 Bristol -10.80
2 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Dec 23 Sale Sharks 0.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 24 Exeter Chiefs 2.20
4 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 24 Northampton Saints -4.10
5 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 24 Bath 3.90

 

November 28, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.01 10.73 1.30
Bulls 9.80 9.00 0.80
Munster 9.68 10.54 -0.90
Stormers 6.91 8.93 -2.00
Glasgow 6.79 4.19 2.60
Ulster 5.87 7.80 -1.90
Connacht 1.86 3.17 -1.30
Sharks 0.79 0.85 -0.10
Lions -0.48 -4.26 3.80
Edinburgh -0.81 -2.26 1.40
Benetton -2.10 -5.12 3.00
Cardiff Rugby -4.47 -5.16 0.70
Ospreys -6.44 -7.79 1.40
Scarlets -9.50 -2.23 -7.30
Dragons -12.16 -8.14 -4.00
Zebre -17.74 -20.25 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers Nov 25 31 – 24 -9.90 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Nov 25 22 – 24 6.70 FALSE
3 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Nov 25 31 – 9 2.10 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Zebre Nov 25 61 – 19 17.70 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Connacht Nov 26 53 – 27 9.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Nov 26 69 – 14 10.90 TRUE
7 Leinster vs. Munster Nov 26 21 – 16 4.20 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Ulster Nov 26 33 – 20 3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Glasgow Dec 02 Munster 6.90
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Dec 02 Bulls 11.00
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 03 Cardiff Rugby 7.00
4 Lions vs. Dragons Dec 03 Lions 15.70
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Dec 03 Stormers 28.70
6 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Dec 03 Ulster 10.70
7 Benetton vs. Ospreys Dec 03 Benetton 8.30
8 Connacht vs. Leinster Dec 03 Leinster -8.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.26 7.24 -1.00
Racing 92 5.44 3.42 2.00
Stade Rochelais 4.42 6.40 -2.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.24 4.07 0.20
Toulon 3.78 3.11 0.70
Stade Francais 2.72 2.62 0.10
Lyon 1.77 2.97 -1.20
Section Paloise 1.64 -0.44 2.10
Clermont 1.15 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.99 -0.39 1.40
Montpellier -0.32 2.09 -2.40
Bayonne -0.99 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -5.66 -3.64 -2.00
US Oyonnax -7.84 -10.00 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Nov 26 46 – 22 15.60 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Bayonne Nov 26 42 – 29 8.80 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. US Oyonnax Nov 26 21 – 26 15.30 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Nov 26 30 – 6 4.20 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Nov 26 31 – 10 10.90 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Nov 26 41 – 19 8.40 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 27 32 – 10 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Dec 03 Bayonne 5.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 03 Castres Olympique 5.70
3 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Dec 03 Clermont 2.20
4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Dec 03 Stade Rochelais 16.60
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Dec 03 Toulon 8.60
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 03 Bordeaux Begles -5.60
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 04 Stade Francais 3.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 8.38 6.82 1.60
Leicester Tigers 4.39 6.13 -1.70
Sale Sharks 4.09 6.46 -2.40
Exeter Chiefs 3.58 -0.89 4.50
Harlequins 2.44 1.93 0.50
Northampton Saints 1.98 2.66 -0.70
Bristol 1.85 1.00 0.90
Bath 1.64 -1.26 2.90
Gloucester -5.53 -1.45 -4.10
Newcastle Falcons -12.07 -10.63 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 25 36 – 33 6.20 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Nov 25 11 – 9 9.90 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Nov 26 39 – 31 13.50 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 26 20 – 38 -1.00 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 27 14 – 20 -10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Dec 02 Harlequins 4.40
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 03 Bath 4.10
3 Bristol vs. Gloucester Dec 03 Bristol 13.40
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 03 Saracens 12.40
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 04 Leicester Tigers 22.50

 

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