Posts written by David Scott (1518)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 11, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.90 14.73 -0.80
Broncos 8.09 9.07 -1.00
Storm 6.99 6.15 0.80
Roosters 4.06 3.08 1.00
Cowboys 3.58 2.47 1.10
Sharks 3.44 2.94 0.50
Knights 0.34 1.84 -1.50
Sea Eagles 0.34 -0.48 0.80
Eels 0.24 0.14 0.10
Rabbitohs 0.05 0.87 -0.80
Warriors -0.57 -0.07 -0.50
Raiders -2.82 -4.31 1.50
Dragons -5.38 -6.93 1.50
Dolphins -8.21 -7.09 -1.10
Titans -9.44 -7.89 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.15 -0.00
Bulldogs -13.46 -13.35 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 03 36 – 24 -1.30 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 03 20 – 10 -6.00 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 07 12 – 28 9.20 FALSE
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Mar 08 12 – 16 4.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 08 8 – 0 -5.60 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 26 – 8 16.50 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 09 4 – 28 2.00 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Mar 10 18 – 43 -6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 Broncos 11.00
2 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 15 Sharks 19.90
3 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 15 Panthers 16.70
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Raiders 13.30
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 16 Cowboys 6.20
6 Storm vs. Warriors Mar 16 Storm 14.60
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 17 Roosters -0.70
8 Dolphins vs. Dragons Mar 17 Dolphins 0.20

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.55 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.06 6.40 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.78 4.07 -0.30
Stade Francais 3.32 2.62 0.70
Toulon 3.22 3.11 0.10
Racing 92 2.77 3.42 -0.70
Montpellier 1.33 2.09 -0.80
Castres Olympique 1.24 -0.39 1.60
Section Paloise 0.23 -0.44 0.70
Bayonne 0.12 -1.32 1.40
Clermont 0.12 1.47 -1.40
Lyon -0.87 2.97 -3.80
USA Perpignan -3.27 -3.64 0.40
US Oyonnax -7.98 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 92 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Mar 10 23 – 3 8.40 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. US Oyonnax Mar 10 15 – 15 15.60 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Mar 10 34 – 19 3.60 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 10 10 – 3 3.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Mar 10 42 – 40 7.10 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 10 27 – 17 -5.30 FALSE
7 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Mar 11 20 – 6 5.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Montpellier Mar 24 Toulon 8.40
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Mar 24 Castres Olympique 5.00
3 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Mar 24 Clermont 6.40
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Mar 24 Stade Francais 10.70
5 US Oyonnax vs. USA Perpignan Mar 24 US Oyonnax 1.80
6 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 24 Bayonne 0.60
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 25 Bordeaux Begles 2.70

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.11 18.86 -2.70
Chiefs 14.07 13.21 0.90
Blues 11.36 12.20 -0.80
Hurricanes 10.60 9.73 0.90
Brumbies 5.70 6.52 -0.80
Highlanders 1.62 1.17 0.50
Reds 1.56 0.07 1.50
Waratahs -1.59 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -4.52 -4.59 0.10
Western Force -6.75 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -8.26 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -10.79 -10.80 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 23 – 29 -0.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 21 – 23 2.40 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 20 – 10 -21.60 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 22 – 19 16.60 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 29 – 21 1.30 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 25 – 19 -8.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 Crusaders 8.50
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 15 Reds -3.10
3 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 Western Force 9.00
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Mar 16 Highlanders 0.90
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Mar 16 Chiefs 27.30
6 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 16 Blues -7.90

 

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March 5, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.19 10.73 1.50
Bulls 11.59 9.00 2.60
Munster 8.55 10.54 -2.00
Glasgow 7.09 4.19 2.90
Stormers 5.50 8.93 -3.40
Ulster 4.49 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 3.74 3.17 0.60
Lions 1.93 -4.26 6.20
Edinburgh -0.44 -2.26 1.80
Sharks -1.74 0.85 -2.60
Ospreys -3.37 -7.79 4.40
Benetton -3.68 -5.12 1.40
Cardiff Rugby -4.26 -5.16 0.90
Scarlets -11.14 -2.23 -8.90
Dragons -14.92 -8.14 -6.80
Zebre -15.51 -20.25 4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Mar 02 19 – 15 7.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 02 45 – 29 30.20 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 40 – 10 1.60 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow Mar 03 9 – 19 -6.00 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 03 40 – 22 6.20 TRUE
6 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 03 26 – 10 19.60 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Mar 03 20 – 33 -12.30 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 03 49 – 26 23.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 23 Glasgow 15.30
2 Ospreys vs. Munster Mar 23 Munster -7.90
3 Sharks vs. Ulster Mar 23 Ulster -2.20
4 Scarlets vs. Benetton Mar 24 Benetton -3.50
5 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Mar 24 Stormers 9.90
6 Connacht vs. Lions Mar 24 Connacht 5.80
7 Dragons vs. Bulls Mar 24 Bulls -22.50
8 Zebre vs. Leinster Mar 24 Leinster -23.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Stade Rochelais 5.66 6.40 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 3.94 4.07 -0.10
Stade Francais 3.72 2.62 1.10
Toulon 3.66 3.11 0.50
Racing 92 2.33 3.42 -1.10
Castres Olympique 1.63 -0.39 2.00
Montpellier 1.17 2.09 -0.90
Clermont 0.63 1.47 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.48 -0.44 0.90
Bayonne -0.14 -1.32 1.20
Lyon -1.27 2.97 -4.20
USA Perpignan -3.78 -3.64 -0.10
US Oyonnax -8.49 -10.00 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 03 39 – 10 6.20 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Mar 03 21 – 5 7.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Mar 03 25 – 12 9.40 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Mar 03 33 – 6 11.90 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 03 44 – 22 13.10 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Montpellier Mar 03 35 – 39 -3.10 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Mar 04 42 – 3 9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Mar 10 Stade Rochelais 8.40
2 Clermont vs. US Oyonnax Mar 10 Clermont 15.60
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Mar 10 Lyon 3.60
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 10 Montpellier 3.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Mar 10 Section Paloise 7.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 10 Stade Toulousain -5.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Mar 11 Racing 92 5.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.22 18.86 -1.60
Chiefs 14.67 13.21 1.50
Blues 11.83 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 10.13 9.73 0.40
Brumbies 6.26 6.52 -0.30
Highlanders 1.31 1.17 0.10
Reds 0.96 0.07 0.90
Waratahs -1.28 -1.90 0.60
Rebels -4.90 -4.59 -0.30
Western Force -7.31 -6.15 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.37 -9.21 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.40 -10.80 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 37 -10.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 48 – 34 4.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 39 – 36 -1.70 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 24 – 37 20.80 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 46 – 12 6.40 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 38 – 33 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels Mar 08 Rebels -0.50
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 08 Waratahs 2.40
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Mar 09 Crusaders -21.60
4 Brumbies vs. Western Force Mar 09 Brumbies 16.60
5 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 09 Hurricanes 1.30
6 Reds vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -8.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

So this is new. The methodology is the same, but there are a few quirks when it comes to home ground advantage. I have used the listed home grounds in making decisions, but it is a lot more problematic. Think for example Collingwood versus St Kilda Saints played at Marvel Stadium. Should I give the Saints home ground advantage? I do. Also should home ground advantage be the same for all teams and locations. I have done that, but in future may allocate different home ground advantage for teams in the same city compared to teams playing a team from a different state or city.

You may also note that Collingwood’s rating is less than the Lions. That is how the numbers played out. I am actually fairly happy with it statistically given the result of the Grand Final (Collingwood by 4 points) which given the home ground advantage is pretty close.

Note that I am a long-time Collingwood supporter, but as is the case with all my predictions I try and make them as objective as possible, using a simple statistical method.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 17.47 17.47 -0.00
Collingwood 14.87 14.87 0.00
Melbourne Demons 13.91 13.91 0.00
GWS Giants 12.60 12.60 -0.00
Geelong Cats 10.50 10.50 0.00
Carlton Blues 9.73 9.73 0.00
Adelaide Crows 9.56 9.56 -0.00
Sydney Swans 9.23 9.23 0.00
Port Adelaide Power 8.83 8.83 0.00
Western Bulldogs 6.04 6.04 0.00
Fremantle Dockers 0.40 0.40 0.00
St Kilda Saints -0.63 -0.63 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -4.60 -4.60 0.00
Richmond Tigers -6.13 -6.13 0.00
Hawthorn Hawks -11.08 -11.08 -0.00
Essendon Bombers -17.70 -17.70 -0.00
North Melbourne -25.73 -25.73 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -43.10 -43.10 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 07 Sydney Swans 4.30
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Mar 08 Brisbane Lions 16.70
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 09 Gold Coast Suns 10.50
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 GWS Giants 6.70

 

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February 27, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.56 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 4.78 6.40 -1.60
Stade Francais 3.54 2.62 0.90
Bordeaux Begles 3.50 4.07 -0.60
Toulon 3.22 3.11 0.10
Racing 92 2.77 3.42 -0.70
Castres Olympique 2.13 -0.39 2.50
Clermont 1.51 1.47 0.00
Montpellier 1.12 2.09 -1.00
Section Paloise 0.67 -0.44 1.10
Lyon -0.56 2.97 -3.50
Bayonne -0.85 -1.32 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.34 -3.64 0.30
US Oyonnax -8.45 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 25 41 – 12 3.60 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. US Oyonnax Feb 25 43 – 26 14.10 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Feb 25 28 – 23 8.90 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Feb 25 11 – 27 7.20 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Feb 25 17 – 9 3.50 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 25 27 – 15 -2.60 FALSE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 26 33 – 37 0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 03 Bayonne 6.20
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Mar 03 Bordeaux Begles 7.20
3 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Mar 03 Stade Francais 9.40
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Mar 03 Stade Toulousain 11.90
5 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 03 Toulon 13.10
6 US Oyonnax vs. Montpellier Mar 03 Montpellier -3.10
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Mar 04 Stade Rochelais 9.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.39 18.86 -0.50
Chiefs 13.68 13.21 0.50
Blues 12.03 12.20 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.47 9.73 0.70
Brumbies 7.25 6.52 0.70
Highlanders 1.10 1.17 -0.10
Reds 0.62 0.07 0.50
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -5.33 -4.59 -0.70
Western Force -6.89 -6.15 -0.70
Fijian Drua -9.04 -9.21 0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -10.80 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 33 – 29 -2.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 3 – 30 -8.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 14 – 44 -10.90 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 34 – 10 26.40 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 35 – 21 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 40 – 22 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -10.90
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 Rebels 4.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 Fijian Drua -1.70
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 Crusaders 20.80
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 Chiefs 6.40
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 Hurricanes 9.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

This is an update after I realised I should have not given a home ground advantage for the first-named teams for the games played in Los Angeles. I got both results wrong as a result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.73 14.73 -0.00
Broncos 9.07 9.07 0.00
Storm 6.15 6.15 -0.00
Roosters 3.08 3.08 -0.00
Sharks 2.94 2.94 0.00
Cowboys 2.47 2.47 0.00
Knights 1.84 1.84 0.00
Rabbitohs 0.87 0.87 0.00
Eels 0.14 0.14 0.00
Warriors -0.07 -0.07 0.00
Sea Eagles -0.48 -0.48 0.00
Raiders -4.31 -4.31 0.00
Dragons -6.93 -6.93 -0.00
Dolphins -7.09 -7.09 0.00
Titans -7.89 -7.89 -0.00
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.15 -0.00
Bulldogs -13.35 -13.35 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 03 Rabbitohs -1.30
2 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 03 Broncos -6.00
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 07 Knights 9.20
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Mar 08 Warriors 4.00
5 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 08 Panthers -5.60
6 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 Eels 16.50
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 09 Titans 2.00
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Mar 10 Cowboys -6.60

 

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