Posts written by David Scott (1518)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 26, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.77 18.86 -4.10
Chiefs 13.23 13.21 0.00
Blues 11.76 12.20 -0.40
Hurricanes 11.44 9.73 1.70
Brumbies 6.88 6.52 0.40
Reds 1.81 0.07 1.70
Highlanders 1.52 1.17 0.40
Waratahs -1.64 -1.90 0.30
Rebels -5.72 -4.59 -1.10
Western Force -6.78 -6.15 -0.60
Fijian Drua -7.34 -9.21 1.90
Moana Pasifika -10.81 -10.80 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 54 – 28 21.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 60 – 21 21.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 39 – 36 -3.60 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 28 – 21 15.50 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 26 – 6 -1.60 FALSE
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 40 – 31 -6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Crusaders 4.50
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 29 Waratahs 7.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Western Force Mar 30 Fijian Drua 2.40
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Blues Mar 30 Blues -19.60
5 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 Hurricanes -6.90
6 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 30 Brumbies -2.10

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.53 6.82 2.70
Bristol 5.41 1.00 4.40
Leicester Tigers 4.62 6.13 -1.50
Bath 2.37 -1.26 3.60
Northampton Saints 2.12 2.66 -0.50
Exeter Chiefs 1.79 -0.89 2.70
Harlequins 0.89 1.93 -1.00
Sale Sharks -1.10 6.46 -7.60
Gloucester -2.17 -1.45 -0.70
Newcastle Falcons -12.70 -10.63 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 52 – 21 4.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 25 – 27 15.90 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 25 – 16 22.90 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 52 – 7 8.60 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 42 – 24 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 31 Bristol -1.60
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Mar 31 Harlequins 4.50
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 31 Leicester Tigers -11.30
4 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Mar 31 Saracens -1.40
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 31 Sale Sharks 3.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.20 14.73 -0.50
Broncos 7.18 9.07 -1.90
Storm 6.03 6.15 -0.10
Roosters 5.65 3.08 2.60
Cowboys 4.11 2.47 1.60
Sharks 1.05 2.94 -1.90
Knights 0.98 1.84 -0.90
Eels 0.86 0.14 0.70
Sea Eagles 0.75 -0.48 1.20
Warriors -0.02 -0.07 0.10
Rabbitohs -1.96 0.87 -2.80
Raiders -2.29 -4.31 2.00
Dolphins -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Dragons -8.46 -6.93 -1.50
Wests Tigers -11.25 -13.15 1.90
Titans -11.37 -7.89 -3.50
Bulldogs -11.46 -13.35 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 21 34 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 22 18 – 10 9.50 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 48 – 6 6.40 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 23 32 – 0 -1.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Cowboys Mar 23 24 – 46 -7.80 TRUE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 23 32 – 6 -14.00 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 28 – 24 3.00 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Storm Mar 24 14 – 12 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 28 Panthers -5.50
2 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 Rabbitohs 12.50
3 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 29 Broncos 6.10
4 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 30 Sea Eagles -6.20
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Mar 30 Dolphins -2.40
6 Warriors vs. Knights Mar 31 Warriors 6.00
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 31 Sharks 6.30
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 01 Eels 15.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 15.81 13.91 1.90
GWS Giants 14.55 12.60 1.90
Brisbane Lions 13.59 17.47 -3.90
Sydney Swans 12.97 9.23 3.70
Geelong Cats 11.00 10.50 0.50
Carlton Blues 10.06 9.73 0.30
Port Adelaide Power 9.32 8.83 0.50
Collingwood 8.23 14.87 -6.60
Adelaide Crows 6.71 9.56 -2.90
Western Bulldogs 6.21 6.04 0.20
Fremantle Dockers 3.21 0.40 2.80
St Kilda Saints 2.90 -0.63 3.50
Gold Coast Suns -3.85 -4.60 0.80
Richmond Tigers -8.10 -6.13 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -14.74 -17.70 3.00
Hawthorn Hawks -14.96 -11.08 -3.90
North Melbourne -25.51 -25.73 0.20
West Coast Eagles -43.24 -43.10 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 21 94 – 79 -18.70 FALSE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 77 – 96 8.40 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 23 76 – 102 -18.00 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 38 – 93 -27.00 TRUE
5 Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 23 131 – 101 38.60 TRUE
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 24 115 – 67 14.70 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 24 92 – 122 -5.00 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Mar 24 43 – 108 -46.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood Mar 28 Brisbane Lions 14.40
2 North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues Mar 29 Carlton Blues -35.60
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 29 Fremantle Dockers 5.50
4 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 30 St Kilda Saints -17.60
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 30 Port Adelaide Power 2.50
6 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 31 Western Bulldogs 58.50
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 31 Sydney Swans -12.10
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats Apr 01 Geelong Cats -17.00

 

March 21, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 15.58 18.86 -3.30
Chiefs 13.61 13.21 0.40
Hurricanes 11.13 9.73 1.40
Blues 10.94 12.20 -1.30
Brumbies 6.18 6.52 -0.30
Reds 2.45 0.07 2.40
Highlanders 1.13 1.17 -0.00
Waratahs -1.17 -1.90 0.70
Rebels -5.41 -4.59 -0.80
Western Force -7.42 -6.15 -1.30
Fijian Drua -7.81 -9.21 1.40
Moana Pasifika -10.11 -10.80 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 15 10 – 14 8.50 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 15 26 – 53 -3.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 14 – 22 9.00 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Brumbies Mar 16 21 – 27 0.90 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua Mar 16 46 – 29 27.30 TRUE
6 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 16 10 – 12 -7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 22 Hurricanes 21.50
2 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 22 Brumbies 21.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 23 Waratahs -3.60
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 23 Chiefs 15.50
5 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 23 Crusaders -1.60
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 23 Reds -6.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.48 6.82 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 6.17 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 4.34 2.66 1.70
Harlequins 3.93 1.93 2.00
Bristol 3.19 1.00 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 3.02 -0.89 3.90
Bath 1.44 -1.26 2.70
Sale Sharks -0.18 6.46 -6.60
Gloucester -3.72 -1.45 -2.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 19 – 20 4.80 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 57 – 44 6.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 38 – 13 24.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 40 – 22 7.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 32 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Bristol 4.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 15.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 Exeter Chiefs 22.90
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 Bath 7.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.36 14.73 -1.40
Broncos 8.02 9.07 -1.00
Storm 6.33 6.15 0.20
Roosters 3.57 3.08 0.50
Sharks 3.38 2.94 0.40
Cowboys 3.24 2.47 0.80
Sea Eagles 0.83 -0.48 1.30
Eels 0.79 0.14 0.70
Knights 0.68 1.84 -1.20
Rabbitohs 0.12 0.87 -0.70
Warriors 0.08 -0.07 0.20
Raiders -2.39 -4.31 1.90
Dolphins -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Dragons -7.59 -6.93 -0.70
Titans -9.44 -7.89 -1.60
Bulldogs -13.39 -13.35 -0.00
Wests Tigers -13.57 -13.15 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 28 – 18 11.00 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 15 25 – 6 19.90 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Eels Mar 15 26 – 18 16.70 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 32 – 12 13.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 16 21 – 20 6.20 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Warriors Mar 16 30 – 26 14.60 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Mar 17 21 – 14 -0.70 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Dragons Mar 17 38 – 0 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Mar 21 Panthers 8.30
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 22 Warriors 9.50
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 22 Roosters 6.40
4 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 23 Titans -1.00
5 Dragons vs. Cowboys Mar 23 Cowboys -7.80
6 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Mar 23 Sharks -14.00
7 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 24 Eels 3.00
8 Knights vs. Storm Mar 24 Storm -2.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Melbourne Demons 13.95 13.91 0.00
Sydney Swans 13.91 9.23 4.70
Brisbane Lions 13.59 17.47 -3.90
GWS Giants 13.21 12.60 0.60
Collingwood 10.41 14.87 -4.50
Carlton Blues 10.06 9.73 0.30
Geelong Cats 9.17 10.50 -1.30
Port Adelaide Power 7.62 8.83 -1.20
Adelaide Crows 6.91 9.56 -2.70
Western Bulldogs 4.05 6.04 -2.00
Fremantle Dockers 2.33 0.40 1.90
St Kilda Saints 0.71 -0.63 1.30
Gold Coast Suns -0.06 -4.60 4.50
Richmond Tigers -6.41 -6.13 -0.30
Hawthorn Hawks -13.10 -11.08 -2.00
Essendon Bombers -15.68 -17.70 2.00
North Melbourne -24.62 -25.73 1.10
West Coast Eagles -41.90 -43.10 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 13 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 14 86 – 81 19.70 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Mar 15 69 – 102 11.00 FALSE
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 16 107 – 83 -6.60 FALSE
4 GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne Mar 16 121 – 82 49.00 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 76 – 68 20.10 TRUE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 16 99 – 60 -3.30 FALSE
7 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 17 109 – 64 14.90 TRUE
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 17 120 – 70 60.90 TRUE
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 17 93 – 70 -6.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 21 Collingwood -18.70
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 Adelaide Crows 6.70
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 23 Fremantle Dockers -18.00
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 Melbourne Demons -27.00
5 Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 23 Sydney Swans 38.60
6 Western Bulldogs vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 24 Western Bulldogs 13.10
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 24 Port Adelaide Power -5.00
8 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Mar 24 GWS Giants -46.10

 

March 13, 2024

A Question for Sports Prediction Followers

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I have been a bit shocked by the number of hits I have got for my AFL predictions. I never advertised that I would predict the AFL this year, just said at one stage last year that I might.

For the first week of AFL I got about 40 percent more hits on the AFL predictions compared to the Super Rugby (the next most hits of that week’s predictions). I thought it might be due to posting the AFL predictions first, so this week I posted the AFL predictions last, and currently there are nearly twice as many hits for the AFL as for Super Rugby. The NRL predictions have been popular for some time and have many more hits.

I would be interested in hearing how anybody who is interested in the AFL predictions came across them because I seriously thought I would initially just get a trickle of interest since my other predictions are for rugby or rugby league.

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March 11, 2024

AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 15.52 17.47 -2.00
GWS Giants 14.32 12.60 1.70
Collingwood 13.16 14.87 -1.70
Melbourne Demons 11.96 13.91 -1.90
Carlton Blues 11.68 9.73 2.00
Sydney Swans 11.17 9.23 1.90
Geelong Cats 10.50 10.50 0.00
Adelaide Crows 9.56 9.56 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power 8.83 8.83 0.00
Western Bulldogs 6.04 6.04 0.00
Fremantle Dockers 0.40 0.40 0.00
St Kilda Saints -0.63 -0.63 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -2.71 -4.60 1.90
Richmond Tigers -8.03 -6.13 -1.90
Hawthorn Hawks -11.08 -11.08 -0.00
Essendon Bombers -17.70 -17.70 -0.00
North Melbourne -25.73 -25.73 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -43.10 -43.10 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 07 86 – 64 4.30 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues Mar 08 85 – 86 16.70 FALSE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 09 99 – 60 10.50 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 114 – 82 6.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 14 Carlton Blues 19.70
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Mar 15 Collingwood 11.00
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 16 Hawthorn Hawks -6.60
4 GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne Mar 16 GWS Giants 49.00
5 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 Geelong Cats 20.10
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 16 Adelaide Crows -3.30
7 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 17 Melbourne Demons 14.90
8 Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 17 Port Adelaide Power 60.90
9 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 17 Brisbane Lions -6.10

 

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