Posts written by David Scott (1471)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 29, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 9.48 5.55 3.90
Saracens 8.15 9.68 -1.50
Bristol 7.94 9.58 -1.60
Leicester Tigers 5.70 3.27 2.40
Northampton Saints 5.63 7.50 -1.90
Harlequins 2.01 -2.73 4.70
Sale Sharks -1.28 4.73 -6.00
Exeter Chiefs -3.58 1.23 -4.80
Gloucester -4.20 -9.04 4.80
Newcastle Falcons -19.09 -19.02 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 26 31 – 23 9.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 27 36 – 7 19.50 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 40 – 13 14.80 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 27 29 – 32 11.90 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 28 19 – 36 5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Nov 30 Harlequins 0.60
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Nov 30 Saracens -20.70
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Dec 01 Northampton Saints 16.30
4 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 01 Bath 19.60
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 02 Leicester Tigers -0.50

 

October 22, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.50 12.09 2.40
Glasgow 10.07 9.39 0.70
Bulls 7.25 8.83 -1.60
Lions 6.58 6.73 -0.10
Munster 6.01 9.28 -3.30
Stormers 5.53 6.75 -1.20
Edinburgh 2.71 0.09 2.60
Ulster 2.38 2.52 -0.10
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Benetton -1.00 1.02 -2.00
Connacht -1.68 -0.76 -0.90
Sharks -3.49 -2.94 -0.50
Ospreys -4.51 -2.51 -2.00
Cardiff Rugby -5.65 -2.55 -3.10
Scarlets -6.44 -10.65 4.20
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Dragons -13.25 -15.41 2.20
Zebre -13.29 -16.17 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Oct 19 23 – 2 -12.50 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 19 36 – 12 10.40 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Lions Oct 19 9 – 10 -16.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 19 28 – 24 -10.20 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Munster Oct 20 34 – 19 3.20 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 20 27 – 8 12.40 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 20 12 – 33 -11.60 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Benetton Oct 20 21 – 31 -5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Bulls Oct 26 Bulls -2.80
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Oct 26 Scarlets 12.40
3 Stormers vs. Glasgow Oct 27 Stormers 1.00
4 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Oct 27 Edinburgh -1.70
5 Sharks vs. Munster Oct 27 Munster -4.00
6 Leinster vs. Lions Oct 27 Leinster 13.40
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Oct 27 Ulster -2.50
8 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 27 Connacht 17.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.60 8.76 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 6.12 3.96 2.20
Toulon 5.40 5.32 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.27 4.85 0.40
Racing 92 2.19 2.75 -0.60
Castres Olympique 1.77 -0.09 1.90
Section Paloise 0.63 1.38 -0.80
Clermont 0.11 0.41 -0.30
Lyon 0.10 -0.18 0.30
Bayonne -0.31 -1.69 1.40
Montpellier -1.20 -0.96 -0.20
Stade Francais -1.34 1.86 -3.20
USA Perpignan -3.01 -0.66 -2.40
Vannes -9.59 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Oct 20 32 – 15 2.90 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 20 35 – 13 8.50 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Vannes Oct 20 55 – 33 15.40 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 20 14 – 22 -1.70 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 21 32 – 22 5.10 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Montpellier Oct 20 30 – 17 13.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Oct 20 29 – 26 3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Oct 27 Bordeaux Begles 11.90
2 Lyon vs. Bayonne Oct 27 Lyon 6.90
3 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 27 Montpellier 0.30
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 27 Racing 92 11.70
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Oct 27 Stade Francais 6.00
6 Vannes vs. Castres Olympique Oct 27 Castres Olympique -3.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Oct 28 Stade Toulousain 10.30

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.64 9.68 -0.00
Bath 8.26 5.55 2.70
Bristol 8.04 9.58 -1.50
Northampton Saints 5.53 7.50 -2.00
Leicester Tigers 4.20 3.27 0.90
Sale Sharks -0.07 4.73 -4.80
Harlequins -0.23 -2.73 2.50
Exeter Chiefs -1.34 1.23 -2.60
Gloucester -5.15 -9.04 3.90
Newcastle Falcons -18.14 -19.02 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 19 24 – 18 -14.40 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 19 47 – 17 7.60 TRUE
3 Bristol vs. Saracens Oct 20 35 – 37 6.60 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 20 24 – 26 -2.00 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Oct 21 29 – 26 19.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 26 Bristol 9.00
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 27 Gloucester 19.50
3 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 27 Bath 14.80
4 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 27 Saracens 11.90
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 28 Exeter Chiefs 5.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 7.80 10.63 -2.80
Bay of Plenty 7.23 3.52 3.70
Waikato 6.23 5.30 0.90
Taranaki 5.84 5.21 0.60
Canterbury 4.86 6.01 -1.20
Tasman 3.81 2.17 1.60
North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay 1.51 6.09 -4.60
Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60
Counties Manukau -0.70 -5.22 4.50
Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70
Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10
Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30
Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 19 32 – 20 3.30 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 19 29 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 26 Wellington 3.60

 

October 15, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.47 12.09 1.40
Glasgow 11.12 9.39 1.70
Bulls 9.43 8.83 0.60
Lions 7.72 6.73 1.00
Munster 6.91 9.28 -2.40
Stormers 4.64 6.75 -2.10
Edinburgh 1.98 0.09 1.90
Ulster 1.37 2.52 -1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Connacht -0.65 -0.76 0.10
Benetton -1.46 1.02 -2.50
Ospreys -3.50 -2.51 -1.00
Sharks -4.54 -2.94 -1.60
Cardiff Rugby -4.92 -2.55 -2.40
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -8.62 -10.65 2.00
Dragons -12.79 -15.41 2.60
Zebre -14.43 -16.17 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Oct 12 33 – 3 31.30 TRUE
2 Benetton vs. Sharks Oct 13 38 – 10 5.50 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Oct 13 19 – 25 8.30 FALSE
4 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 13 38 – 7 -1.40 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 13 26 – 12 7.70 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Bulls Oct 13 19 – 29 -6.70 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Oct 13 32 – 27 4.40 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Lions Oct 13 19 – 23 -16.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Oct 19 Bulls -12.50
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Oct 19 Ulster 10.40
3 Zebre vs. Lions Oct 19 Lions -16.60
4 Sharks vs. Glasgow Oct 19 Glasgow -10.20
5 Stormers vs. Munster Oct 20 Stormers 3.20
6 Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 20 Edinburgh 12.40
7 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 20 Leinster -11.60
8 Dragons vs. Benetton Oct 20 Benetton -5.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.22 8.76 0.50
Bordeaux Begles 6.41 3.96 2.50
Toulon 5.41 5.32 0.10
Stade Rochelais 4.97 4.85 0.10
Racing 92 2.76 2.75 0.00
Castres Olympique 1.22 -0.09 1.30
Section Paloise 1.00 1.38 -0.40
Lyon 0.07 -0.18 0.20
Clermont -0.28 0.41 -0.70
Stade Francais -0.80 1.86 -2.70
Bayonne -0.88 -1.69 0.80
Montpellier -1.20 -0.96 -0.20
USA Perpignan -2.99 -0.66 -2.30
Vannes -9.19 -10.00 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 12 37 – 7 -1.60 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Oct 12 66 – 12 13.10 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Oct 12 35 – 3 5.40 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Vannes Oct 12 26 – 24 15.60 TRUE
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon Oct 12 22 – 6 2.80 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Oct 12 33 – 26 6.20 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Oct 12 48 – 14 14.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Oct 20 Bayonne 2.90
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 20 Castres Olympique 8.50
3 Clermont vs. Vannes Oct 20 Clermont 15.40
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 20 Stade Toulousain -1.70
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 21 Stade Rochelais 5.10
6 Toulon vs. Montpellier Oct 20 Toulon 13.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Oct 20 USA Perpignan 3.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bristol 8.91 9.58 -0.70
Saracens 8.78 9.68 -0.90
Bath 8.26 5.55 2.70
Leicester Tigers 5.81 3.27 2.50
Northampton Saints 3.29 7.50 -4.20
Sale Sharks 2.17 4.73 -2.60
Exeter Chiefs 0.69 1.23 -0.50
Harlequins -0.23 -2.73 2.50
Gloucester -6.76 -9.04 2.30
Newcastle Falcons -20.17 -19.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 12 43 – 10 27.80 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Oct 13 35 – 40 -0.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Bath Oct 13 31 – 55 -4.70 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Oct 13 24 – 8 7.30 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 14 17 – 10 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 19 Exeter Chiefs -14.40
2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Oct 19 Northampton Saints 7.60
3 Bristol vs. Saracens Oct 20 Bristol 6.60
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 20 Bath -2.00
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Oct 21 Leicester Tigers 19.10

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 7.73 10.63 -2.90
Waikato 6.30 5.30 1.00
Bay of Plenty 6.18 3.52 2.70
Canterbury 5.91 6.01 -0.10
Taranaki 5.84 5.21 0.60
Tasman 3.81 2.17 1.60
North Harbour 1.80 3.06 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay 1.51 6.09 -4.60
Auckland 0.39 3.00 -2.60
Counties Manukau -0.70 -5.22 4.50
Otago -1.51 -3.26 1.70
Northland -7.36 -4.29 -3.10
Southland -7.76 -10.05 2.30
Manawatu -18.66 -18.73 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Oct 11 29 – 14 10.30 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 12 19 – 17 9.50 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Oct 12 14 – 15 3.70 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Canterbury Oct 13 14 – 62 6.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Oct 19 Bay of Plenty 3.30
2 Wellington vs. Waikato Oct 19 Wellington 4.40

 

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October 8, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.78 12.09 0.70
Glasgow 11.26 9.39 1.90
Bulls 9.07 8.83 0.20
Lions 8.69 6.73 2.00
Munster 7.60 9.28 -1.70
Stormers 6.75 6.75 -0.00
Ulster 1.30 2.52 -1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Edinburgh -0.13 0.09 -0.20
Connacht -0.59 -0.76 0.20
Sharks -2.99 -2.94 -0.00
Benetton -3.01 1.02 -4.00
Ospreys -3.13 -2.51 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -3.87 -2.55 -1.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Scarlets -9.67 -10.65 1.00
Dragons -13.76 -15.41 1.60
Zebre -14.58 -16.17 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Glasgow Oct 05 36 – 52 -7.80 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Connacht Oct 05 23 – 24 -4.30 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Edinburgh Oct 05 55 – 21 11.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 06 47 – 21 11.10 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Leinster Oct 06 5 – 35 -7.10 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 06 30 – 33 -5.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Ospreys Oct 06 23 – 0 14.30 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 06 5 – 36 -13.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Oct 12 Glasgow 31.30
2 Benetton vs. Sharks Oct 13 Benetton 5.50
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Oct 13 Cardiff Rugby 8.30
4 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 13 Stormers -1.40
5 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 13 Leinster 7.70
6 Ospreys vs. Bulls Oct 13 Bulls -6.70
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Oct 13 Ulster 4.40
8 Dragons vs. Lions Oct 13 Lions -16.90

 

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