Posts written by David Scott (1489)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

January 29, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.37 8.76 1.60
Toulon 6.46 5.32 1.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.97 3.96 2.00
Stade Rochelais 3.05 4.85 -1.80
Montpellier 2.34 -0.96 3.30
Clermont 1.24 0.41 0.80
Racing 92 0.66 2.75 -2.10
Bayonne 0.08 -1.69 1.80
Castres Olympique -0.33 -0.09 -0.20
Lyon -0.42 -0.18 -0.20
Section Paloise -0.74 1.38 -2.10
Stade Francais -1.33 1.86 -3.20
USA Perpignan -3.00 -0.66 -2.30
Vannes -8.62 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Jan 26 20 – 22 14.00 FALSE
2 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 26 20 – 27 9.90 FALSE
3 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Jan 26 20 – 14 6.50 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 26 27 – 17 14.90 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Jan 26 16 – 11 3.50 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Stade Francais Jan 26 33 – 28 -1.30 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 27 45 – 26 8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 16 Bayonne 0.60
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 16 Lyon 3.90
3 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 16 Montpellier 2.40
4 Racing 92 vs. Vannes Feb 16 Racing 92 15.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Feb 16 Stade Francais 5.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Feb 16 USA Perpignan 5.00
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 17 Stade Toulousain -2.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 14.06 5.55 8.50
Northampton Saints 5.92 7.50 -1.60
Bristol 5.33 9.58 -4.30
Sale Sharks 4.32 4.73 -0.40
Leicester Tigers 1.65 3.27 -1.60
Saracens 1.42 9.68 -8.30
Gloucester 0.77 -9.04 9.80
Harlequins -0.24 -2.73 2.50
Exeter Chiefs -2.16 1.23 -3.40
Newcastle Falcons -20.32 -19.02 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 22 – 19 -0.30 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jan 26 31 – 22 1.40 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 26 38 – 31 5.30 TRUE
4 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 27 55 – 35 35.20 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 27 23 – 32 -1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 22 Sale Sharks -18.10
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 23 Bristol 14.00
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 23 Northampton Saints 10.80
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 Saracens 8.20
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Mar 24 Bath 19.80

 

January 8, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.87 12.09 2.80
Glasgow 9.56 9.39 0.20
Bulls 8.19 8.83 -0.60
Stormers 4.70 6.75 -2.10
Lions 4.43 6.73 -2.30
Munster 4.11 9.28 -5.20
Ulster 3.02 2.52 0.50
Edinburgh 2.79 0.09 2.70
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Sharks 0.03 -2.94 3.00
Connacht -1.95 -0.76 -1.20
Benetton -2.15 1.02 -3.20
Scarlets -4.38 -10.65 6.30
Ospreys -4.83 -2.51 -2.30
Cardiff Rugby -6.09 -2.55 -3.50
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.64 -16.17 3.50
Dragons -13.94 -15.41 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 29 24 – 20 8.10 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 30 7 – 17 -0.40 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 30 7 – 28 -6.10 TRUE
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 30 10 – 7 -6.30 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 30 12 – 24 -6.90 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 13 – 13 1.60 FALSE
7 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 32 – 15 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht Jan 25 Glasgow 17.00
2 Ospreys vs. Benetton Jan 25 Ospreys 2.80
3 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 26 Bulls -1.30
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jan 26 Edinburgh -1.70
5 Leinster vs. Stormers Jan 26 Leinster 15.70
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Jan 26 Sharks -0.60
7 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 26 Munster -12.50
8 Ulster vs. Zebre Jan 27 Ulster 21.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.34 5.55 7.80
Bristol 6.85 9.58 -2.70
Northampton Saints 6.25 7.50 -1.20
Sale Sharks 5.04 4.73 0.30
Saracens 2.18 9.68 -7.50
Leicester Tigers 1.83 3.27 -1.40
Gloucester 0.60 -9.04 9.60
Harlequins -0.57 -2.73 2.20
Exeter Chiefs -2.92 1.23 -4.10
Newcastle Falcons -21.84 -19.02 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 04 14 – 38 -12.50 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 05 36 – 20 -1.40 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 05 28 – 15 10.80 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 05 35 – 26 0.00 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Jan 06 35 – 34 -1.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 Northampton Saints -0.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jan 26 Exeter Chiefs 1.40
3 Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 26 Gloucester 5.30
4 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 27 Bristol 35.20
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 27 Bath -1.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.63 8.76 1.90
Bordeaux Begles 6.53 3.96 2.60
Toulon 6.05 5.32 0.70
Stade Rochelais 3.49 4.85 -1.40
Montpellier 2.05 -0.96 3.00
Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40
Clermont 1.17 0.41 0.80
Bayonne 0.15 -1.69 1.80
Section Paloise -0.70 1.38 -2.10
Castres Olympique -0.96 -0.09 -0.90
Stade Francais -0.98 1.86 -2.80
Lyon -1.00 -0.18 -0.80
USA Perpignan -3.11 -0.66 -2.50
Vannes -8.92 -10.00 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Jan 05 24 – 19 4.60 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 05 17 – 12 8.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 05 42 – 10 5.50 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 05 19 – 46 0.70 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 05 22 – 19 -0.60 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Jan 05 36 – 24 9.90 TRUE
7 Vannes vs. Clermont Jan 06 19 – 20 -2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Jan 26 Bordeaux Begles 14.00
2 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 26 Racing 92 9.90
3 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Jan 26 Section Paloise 6.50
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 26 Stade Toulousain 14.90
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Jan 26 USA Perpignan 3.50
6 Vannes vs. Stade Francais Jan 26 Stade Francais -1.30
7 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 27 Toulon 8.80

 

January 2, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.87 12.09 2.80
Glasgow 9.56 9.39 0.20
Bulls 8.19 8.83 -0.60
Stormers 4.70 6.75 -2.10
Lions 4.43 6.73 -2.30
Munster 4.11 9.28 -5.20
Ulster 3.02 2.52 0.50
Edinburgh 2.79 0.09 2.70
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Sharks 0.03 -2.94 3.00
Connacht -1.95 -0.76 -1.20
Benetton -2.15 1.02 -3.20
Scarlets -4.38 -10.65 6.30
Ospreys -4.83 -2.51 -2.30
Cardiff Rugby -6.09 -2.55 -3.50
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.64 -16.17 3.50
Dragons -13.94 -15.41 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 29 24 – 20 8.10 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 30 7 – 17 -0.40 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 30 7 – 28 -6.10 TRUE
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 30 10 – 7 -6.30 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 30 12 – 24 -6.90 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 13 – 13 1.60 FALSE
7 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 32 – 15 10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht Jan 25 Glasgow 17.00
2 Ospreys vs. Benetton Jan 25 Ospreys 2.80
3 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 26 Bulls -1.30
4 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Jan 26 Edinburgh -1.70
5 Leinster vs. Stormers Jan 26 Leinster 15.70
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Jan 26 Sharks -0.60
7 Dragons vs. Munster Jan 26 Munster -12.50
8 Ulster vs. Zebre Jan 27 Ulster 21.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.82 8.76 2.10
Toulon 5.92 5.32 0.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.52 3.96 1.60
Stade Rochelais 3.34 4.85 -1.50
Racing 92 1.47 2.75 -1.30
Clermont 1.26 0.41 0.90
Montpellier 1.16 -0.96 2.10
Bayonne 1.08 -1.69 2.80
Stade Francais -0.03 1.86 -1.90
Section Paloise -0.69 1.38 -2.10
Lyon -0.80 -0.18 -0.60
Castres Olympique -0.95 -0.09 -0.90
USA Perpignan -3.30 -0.66 -2.60
Vannes -9.06 -10.00 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Dec 29 33 – 12 8.60 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 29 21 – 17 7.50 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 29 18 – 22 7.30 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Vannes Dec 29 48 – 24 14.70 TRUE
5 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Dec 30 25 – 25 9.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Dec 30 38 – 23 16.60 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 30 21 – 13 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Jan 05 Castres Olympique 4.60
2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 05 Lyon 8.90
3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 05 Montpellier 5.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 05 Stade Francais 0.70
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 05 Stade Toulousain -0.60
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Jan 05 Toulon 9.90
7 Vannes vs. Clermont Jan 06 Clermont -2.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.54 5.55 8.00
Bristol 7.75 9.58 -1.80
Sale Sharks 6.78 4.73 2.10
Northampton Saints 6.05 7.50 -1.40
Leicester Tigers 1.61 3.27 -1.70
Saracens 1.28 9.68 -8.40
Gloucester -1.14 -9.04 7.90
Harlequins -1.73 -2.73 1.00
Exeter Chiefs -2.70 1.23 -3.90
Newcastle Falcons -20.69 -19.02 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Dec 28 0 – 38 18.80 FALSE
2 Bath vs. Saracens Dec 29 68 – 10 8.90 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 29 61 – 0 26.30 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 34 – 34 4.00 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 30 22 – 15 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 04 Harlequins -12.50
2 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 05 Sale Sharks -1.40
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 10.80
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 05 Saracens 0.00
5 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Jan 06 Bath -1.00

 

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December 24, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

This is the promised update after the Dragons v Cardiff Rugby game.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.77 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 10.58 9.39 1.20
Bulls 8.19 8.83 -0.60
Munster 5.20 9.28 -4.10
Stormers 5.15 6.75 -1.60
Lions 4.43 6.73 -2.30
Ulster 1.96 2.52 -0.60
Edinburgh 1.77 0.09 1.70
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Sharks -0.41 -2.94 2.50
Connacht -0.89 -0.76 -0.10
Benetton -2.72 1.02 -3.70
Ospreys -5.00 -2.51 -2.50
Scarlets -5.08 -10.65 5.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.92 -2.55 -3.40
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.07 -16.17 4.10
Dragons -13.24 -15.41 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 21 29 – 10 0.60 TRUE
2 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 22 11 – 10 13.80 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Connacht Dec 22 20 – 12 18.80 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Munster Dec 22 19 – 22 -0.10 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 22 20 – 17 -7.80 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 22 23 – 22 3.00 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 23 33 – 14 9.10 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 27 22 – 24 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Lions Dec 29 Bulls 6.30
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Dec 29 Stormers 8.10
3 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 30 Ulster -0.40
4 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 30 Leinster -6.10
5 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 30 Glasgow -6.30
6 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 30 Benetton -6.90
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jan 02 Cardiff Rugby 1.60
8 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 02 Scarlets 10.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.88 8.76 2.10
Bordeaux Begles 5.74 3.96 1.80
Toulon 5.69 5.32 0.40
Stade Rochelais 3.68 4.85 -1.20
Racing 92 1.86 2.75 -0.90
Clermont 1.70 0.41 1.30
Montpellier 0.71 -0.96 1.70
Bayonne 0.58 -1.69 2.30
Stade Francais -0.09 1.86 -2.00
Castres Olympique -0.46 -0.09 -0.40
Section Paloise -1.07 1.38 -2.50
Lyon -1.17 -0.18 -1.00
USA Perpignan -3.64 -0.66 -3.00
Vannes -8.67 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 22 3 – 13 0.10 FALSE
2 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Dec 22 21 – 17 4.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Dec 22 24 – 7 8.90 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Dec 22 20 – 15 9.50 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Dec 22 56 – 25 10.20 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Bayonne Dec 22 21 – 27 -2.40 TRUE
7 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 23 17 – 17 -5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Dec 29 Bayonne 8.60
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 29 Bordeaux Begles 7.50
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 29 Clermont 7.30
4 Section Paloise vs. Vannes Dec 29 Section Paloise 14.70
5 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Dec 30 Racing 92 9.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Dec 30 Stade Toulousain 16.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 30 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

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