Posts written by David Scott (1518)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 4, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.71 10.73 1.00
Munster 11.04 10.54 0.50
Bulls 10.80 9.00 1.80
Stormers 7.99 8.93 -0.90
Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50
Glasgow 5.79 4.19 1.60
Ulster 3.58 7.80 -4.20
Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70
Benetton -0.79 -5.12 4.30
Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40
Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -3.94 -7.79 3.90
Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80
Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60
Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jun 01 38 – 26 30.40 TRUE
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Jun 01 33 – 7 12.80 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 01 29 – 24 3.50 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jun 02 31 – 6 0.20 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jun 02 32 – 15 4.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 02 14 – 26 -12.10 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jun 02 29 – 33 4.60 FALSE
8 Munster vs. Ulster Jun 02 29 – 24 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Jun 08 Munster 19.00
2 Bulls vs. Benetton Jun 09 Bulls 15.60
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jun 09 Leinster 10.10
4 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jun 09 Glasgow 1.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.06 7.24 0.80
Toulon 5.87 3.11 2.80
Stade Rochelais 5.61 6.40 -0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 4.07 0.70
Racing 92 3.07 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.65 2.62 -1.00
Section Paloise 1.14 -0.44 1.60
Montpellier -0.04 2.09 -2.10
Clermont -0.49 1.47 -2.00
Lyon -0.62 2.97 -3.60
Castres Olympique -0.69 -0.39 -0.30
USA Perpignan -0.90 -3.64 2.70
Bayonne -1.27 -1.32 0.00
US Oyonnax -8.58 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Jun 02 27 – 18 3.60 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Jun 02 41 – 26 6.20 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Jun 02 24 – 15 8.40 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 02 31 – 31 9.90 FALSE
5 Toulon vs. Clermont Jun 02 52 – 10 11.00 TRUE
6 US Oyonnax vs. Bayonne Jun 02 27 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 37 – 30 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jun 09 Bayonne 5.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. US Oyonnax Jun 09 Bordeaux Begles 19.90
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Jun 09 Clermont 6.10
4 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 09 Stade Toulousain -2.20
5 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Jun 09 Section Paloise 8.50
6 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Jun 09 Stade Francais 2.30
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Jun 09 Stade Rochelais 9.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.75 12.20 3.60
Chiefs 13.79 13.21 0.60
Hurricanes 13.34 9.73 3.60
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.21 6.52 0.70
Reds 3.02 0.07 2.90
Highlanders -0.83 1.17 -2.00
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -5.90 -4.59 -1.30
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.05 -9.21 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 43 – 10 26.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 31 26 – 27 -4.70 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Jun 01 40 – 19 -0.80 FALSE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 01 41 – 14 16.20 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 01 31 – 17 4.10 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Jun 01 19 – 24 -11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Jun 07 Hurricanes 24.20
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 07 Chiefs 15.80
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Jun 08 Blues 28.80
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 08 Brumbies 13.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 9.68 6.82 2.90
Bristol 9.58 1.00 8.60
Northampton Saints 7.24 2.66 4.60
Bath 5.81 -1.26 7.10
Sale Sharks 4.73 6.46 -1.70
Leicester Tigers 3.27 6.13 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 1.23 -0.89 2.10
Harlequins -2.73 1.93 -4.70
Gloucester -9.04 -1.45 -7.60
Newcastle Falcons -19.02 -10.63 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jun 01 22 – 20 3.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Jun 02 31 – 23 6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Jun 09 Northampton Saints 1.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.07 14.73 -3.70
Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70
Storm 6.30 6.15 0.10
Broncos 6.29 9.07 -2.80
Sharks 3.36 2.94 0.40
Sea Eagles 1.87 -0.48 2.40
Cowboys 0.17 2.47 -2.30
Warriors -0.43 -0.07 -0.40
Bulldogs -2.25 -13.35 11.10
Dolphins -2.28 -7.09 4.80
Knights -3.05 1.84 -4.90
Raiders -4.40 -4.31 -0.10
Eels -5.41 0.14 -5.50
Dragons -6.50 -6.93 0.40
Titans -6.78 -7.89 1.10
Rabbitohs -6.91 0.87 -7.80
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.15 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Sharks May 30 34 – 22 -8.20 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 31 2 – 32 6.50 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 01 10 – 22 24.90 FALSE
4 Dolphins vs. Raiders Jun 01 25 – 26 6.00 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 02 16 – 18 12.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 Dragons 7.40
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 Titans 3.10
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 08 Cowboys 7.60
4 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 08 Broncos 5.90
5 Storm vs. Knights Jun 09 Storm 12.30
6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 Panthers 12.20
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 10 Bulldogs 6.20

 

AFL Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 22.73 9.23 13.50
Brisbane Lions 13.76 17.47 -3.70
Carlton Blues 12.17 9.73 2.40
Western Bulldogs 11.01 6.04 5.00
GWS Giants 10.96 12.60 -1.60
Fremantle Dockers 9.77 0.40 9.40
Collingwood 9.59 14.87 -5.30
Geelong Cats 8.62 10.50 -1.90
Adelaide Crows 8.28 9.56 -1.30
Melbourne Demons 8.22 13.91 -5.70
Port Adelaide Power 3.49 8.83 -5.30
Gold Coast Suns -0.79 -4.60 3.80
St Kilda Saints -4.69 -0.63 -4.10
Essendon Bombers -6.51 -17.70 11.20
Hawthorn Hawks -7.01 -11.08 4.10
Richmond Tigers -22.03 -6.13 -15.90
West Coast Eagles -32.74 -43.10 10.40
North Melbourne -40.67 -25.73 -14.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 30 71 – 107 5.60 FALSE
2 Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs May 31 82 – 100 -8.30 TRUE
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 01 107 – 80 -11.20 FALSE
4 West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 68 – 82 -20.50 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 01 99 – 69 42.40 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 02 49 – 141 9.60 FALSE
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 02 91 – 80 15.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 06 Adelaide Crows 39.30
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 07 Western Bulldogs 6.30
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 08 GWS Giants -9.00
4 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Jun 08 West Coast Eagles 16.90
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 08 St Kilda Saints 5.10
6 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Jun 09 Sydney Swans 23.10
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 09 Carlton Blues -18.70
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 10 Collingwood 1.40

 

May 27, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.31 12.20 3.10
Chiefs 14.23 13.21 1.00
Hurricanes 12.87 9.73 3.10
Crusaders 12.30 18.86 -6.60
Brumbies 7.65 6.52 1.10
Reds 3.28 0.07 3.20
Highlanders -0.37 1.17 -1.50
Waratahs -4.46 -1.90 -2.60
Rebels -5.07 -4.59 -0.50
Western Force -6.60 -6.15 -0.50
Fijian Drua -8.88 -9.21 0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.16 -10.80 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 78 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Hurricanes May 24 17 – 20 5.10 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Rebels May 24 53 – 17 14.10 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs May 25 27 – 12 -3.10 FALSE
4 Crusaders vs. Blues May 25 29 – 27 -0.30 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Western Force May 25 59 – 13 10.40 TRUE
6 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua May 26 39 – 3 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 Crusaders 26.50
2 Waratahs vs. Reds May 31 Reds -4.70
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Jun 01 Rebels -0.80
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Jun 01 Hurricanes 16.20
5 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 01 Blues 4.10
6 Western Force vs. Brumbies Jun 01 Brumbies -11.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.22 14.73 -1.50
Roosters 8.72 3.08 5.60
Storm 6.30 6.15 0.10
Broncos 6.29 9.07 -2.80
Sharks 4.58 2.94 1.60
Sea Eagles 1.87 -0.48 2.40
Warriors -0.43 -0.07 -0.40
Cowboys -0.72 2.47 -3.20
Knights -0.92 1.84 -2.80
Dolphins -1.84 -7.09 5.30
Bulldogs -4.38 -13.35 9.00
Raiders -4.85 -4.31 -0.50
Eels -6.62 0.14 -6.80
Titans -6.78 -7.89 1.10
Rabbitohs -6.91 0.87 -7.80
Dragons -8.66 -6.93 -1.70
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.15 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 23 44 – 12 4.00 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 24 42 – 28 13.00 TRUE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm May 24 26 – 20 -2.50 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Roosters May 25 16 – 44 -8.20 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Panthers May 25 0 – 42 -0.90 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 25 42 – 26 0.90 TRUE
7 Broncos vs. Titans May 26 34 – 36 18.50 FALSE
8 Warriors vs. Dolphins May 26 24 – 20 9.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Sharks May 30 Sharks -8.20
2 Knights vs. Bulldogs May 31 Knights 6.50
3 Panthers vs. Dragons Jun 01 Panthers 24.90
4 Dolphins vs. Raiders Jun 01 Dolphins 6.00
5 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 02 Roosters 12.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 22.73 9.23 13.50
Melbourne Demons 13.81 13.91 -0.10
Brisbane Lions 13.76 17.47 -3.70
GWS Giants 10.96 12.60 -1.60
Adelaide Crows 10.71 9.56 1.10
Collingwood 10.66 14.87 -4.20
Geelong Cats 9.98 10.50 -0.50
Western Bulldogs 9.95 6.04 3.90
Carlton Blues 9.55 9.73 -0.20
Port Adelaide Power 6.11 8.83 -2.70
Fremantle Dockers 4.18 0.40 3.80
Gold Coast Suns -0.27 -4.60 4.30
St Kilda Saints -3.98 -0.63 -3.40
Essendon Bombers -7.04 -17.70 10.70
Hawthorn Hawks -9.44 -11.08 1.60
Richmond Tigers -23.39 -6.13 -17.30
West Coast Eagles -33.46 -43.10 9.60
North Melbourne -40.67 -25.73 -14.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Sydney Swans May 23 88 – 102 -0.90 TRUE
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood May 24 75 – 75 3.20 FALSE
3 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 102 – 73 16.00 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power May 25 48 – 107 -34.40 TRUE
5 Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants May 25 74 – 78 11.40 FALSE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 25 74 – 86 -17.60 TRUE
7 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 26 100 – 75 -19.80 FALSE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints May 26 100 – 62 23.60 TRUE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 26 137 – 38 46.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 30 Port Adelaide Power 5.60
2 Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs May 31 Western Bulldogs -8.30
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 01 Adelaide Crows -11.20
4 West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 St Kilda Saints -20.50
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 01 Geelong Cats 42.40
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 02 Melbourne Demons 9.60
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 02 Gold Coast Suns 15.80

 

May 21, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

By

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Munster 11.60 10.54 1.10
Bulls 10.82 9.00 1.80
Leinster 10.69 10.73 -0.00
Stormers 7.83 8.93 -1.10
Glasgow 7.16 4.19 3.00
Lions 6.35 -4.26 10.60
Ulster 3.02 7.80 -4.80
Edinburgh 1.20 -2.26 3.50
Connacht -0.08 3.17 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -2.06 -5.16 3.10
Benetton -2.58 -5.12 2.50
Sharks -3.32 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -4.64 -7.79 3.20
Scarlets -11.96 -2.23 -9.70
Dragons -14.82 -8.14 -6.70
Zebre -19.21 -20.25 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Munster May 18 26 – 29 -7.20 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Scarlets May 18 18 – 32 -1.30 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Benetton May 19 56 – 35 16.50 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons May 19 26 – 13 12.00 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Glasgow May 19 44 – 21 -0.20 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Stormers May 19 12 – 16 -3.90 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby May 19 14 – 36 6.90 FALSE
8 Ulster vs. Leinster May 19 23 – 21 -7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jun 01 Glasgow 30.40
2 Leinster vs. Connacht Jun 01 Leinster 12.80
3 Stormers vs. Lions Jun 01 Stormers 3.50
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jun 02 Benetton 0.20
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jun 02 Scarlets 4.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Jun 02 Bulls -12.10
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ospreys Jun 02 Cardiff Rugby 4.60
8 Munster vs. Ulster Jun 02 Munster 10.60

 

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