Posts written by David Scott (1518)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 18, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.35 10.73 1.60
Bulls 10.47 9.00 1.50
Munster 9.61 10.54 -0.90
Glasgow 8.07 4.19 3.90
Stormers 6.83 8.93 -2.10
Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50
Ulster 2.58 7.80 -5.20
Benetton -0.09 -5.12 5.00
Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70
Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40
Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -3.65 -7.79 4.10
Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80
Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60
Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Leinster Jun 16 25 – 20 1.40 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Glasgow Jun 16 10 – 17 7.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Glasgow Jun 23 Bulls 6.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.58 7.24 0.30
Stade Rochelais 5.82 6.40 -0.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.52 4.07 1.40
Toulon 5.42 3.11 2.30
Racing 92 3.00 3.42 -0.40
Stade Francais 1.69 2.62 -0.90
Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80
Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00
Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30
Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10
USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50
US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 136 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 16 29 – 34 6.90 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jun 17 31 – 17 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 22 Stade Toulousain 1.80
2 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 23 Bordeaux Begles -3.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.94 12.20 3.70
Chiefs 14.78 13.21 1.60
Hurricanes 12.98 9.73 3.30
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.38 6.52 0.90
Reds 2.58 0.07 2.50
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -6.09 -4.59 -1.50
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.21 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 14 34 – 20 13.50 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 15 19 – 30 2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Chiefs Jun 22 Blues 4.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.72 14.73 -4.00
Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70
Storm 7.03 6.15 0.90
Broncos 4.28 9.07 -4.80
Sharks 3.61 2.94 0.70
Sea Eagles 2.44 -0.48 2.90
Warriors 0.74 -0.07 0.80
Cowboys -0.90 2.47 -3.40
Dolphins -1.56 -7.09 5.50
Bulldogs -2.40 -13.35 11.00
Knights -2.58 1.84 -4.40
Rabbitohs -3.70 0.87 -4.60
Dragons -4.88 -6.93 2.00
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Raiders -5.53 -4.31 -1.20
Titans -9.51 -7.89 -1.60
Wests Tigers -12.33 -13.15 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dolphins Jun 13 28 – 30 9.60 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 14 16 – 34 0.60 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 14 22 – 12 -7.10 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 15 18 – 10 -0.90 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 15 24 – 38 2.80 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 15 18 – 28 -10.10 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 30 – 14 9.50 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Panthers Jun 16 18 – 26 -10.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Storm Jun 21 Storm -5.60
2 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 22 Warriors -3.30
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jun 22 Roosters 13.20
4 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 22 Sea Eagles -3.10
5 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 23 Raiders -3.80

 

AFL Predictions for Week 16

By

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 25.63 9.23 16.40
Brisbane Lions 15.61 17.47 -1.90
Carlton Blues 12.97 9.73 3.20
Western Bulldogs 11.55 6.04 5.50
GWS Giants 10.10 12.60 -2.50
Collingwood 9.36 14.87 -5.50
Geelong Cats 7.86 10.50 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 6.21 0.40 5.80
Melbourne Demons 5.87 13.91 -8.00
Adelaide Crows 3.22 9.56 -6.30
Port Adelaide Power 2.70 8.83 -6.10
Gold Coast Suns -0.56 -4.60 4.00
Hawthorn Hawks -3.14 -11.08 7.90
St Kilda Saints -3.74 -0.63 -3.10
Essendon Bombers -7.32 -17.70 10.40
Richmond Tigers -21.33 -6.13 -15.20
West Coast Eagles -34.49 -43.10 8.60
North Melbourne -36.35 -25.73 -10.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 78 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 14 126 – 106 30.70 TRUE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 15 149 – 82 7.20 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 15 49 – 97 -13.70 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Jun 15 67 – 109 -9.10 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood Jun 16 118 – 119 -41.90 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 16 73 – 51 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Jun 21 Carlton Blues 14.10
2 Port Adelaide Power vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 22 Brisbane Lions -3.90
3 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jun 22 Sydney Swans -6.50
4 Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne Jun 22 Melbourne Demons 51.20
5 Essendon Bombers vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 23 Essendon Bombers 36.20
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 23 Fremantle Dockers 15.80

 

June 11, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.71 10.73 2.00
Munster 10.74 10.54 0.20
Bulls 10.11 9.00 1.10
Glasgow 6.94 4.19 2.70
Stormers 6.83 8.93 -2.10
Lions 6.20 -4.26 10.50
Ulster 2.58 7.80 -5.20
Benetton -0.09 -5.12 5.00
Edinburgh -0.60 -2.26 1.70
Connacht -1.10 3.17 -4.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.75 -5.16 2.40
Sharks -3.31 0.85 -4.20
Ospreys -3.65 -7.79 4.10
Scarlets -11.01 -2.23 -8.80
Dragons -15.77 -8.14 -7.60
Zebre -17.83 -20.25 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Ospreys Jun 08 23 – 7 19.00 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Benetton Jun 09 30 – 23 15.60 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Ulster Jun 09 43 – 20 10.10 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jun 09 27 – 10 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Leinster Jun 16 Bulls 1.40
2 Munster vs. Glasgow Jun 16 Munster 7.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.58 7.24 0.30
Toulon 5.83 3.11 2.70
Stade Rochelais 5.41 6.40 -1.00
Bordeaux Begles 5.25 4.07 1.20
Racing 92 3.27 3.42 -0.20
Stade Francais 1.69 2.62 -0.90
Section Paloise 1.32 -0.44 1.80
Clermont 0.44 1.47 -1.00
Castres Olympique -0.14 -0.39 0.30
Lyon -0.14 2.97 -3.10
Montpellier -0.97 2.09 -3.10
USA Perpignan -1.07 -3.64 2.60
Bayonne -1.83 -1.32 -0.50
US Oyonnax -9.02 -10.00 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 135 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jun 09 17 – 28 5.90 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. US Oyonnax Jun 09 40 – 7 19.90 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Jun 09 52 – 15 6.10 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 09 40 – 28 -2.20 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Jun 09 36 – 24 8.50 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Jun 09 23 – 20 2.30 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Jun 09 24 – 19 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 16 Toulon 6.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jun 17 Bordeaux Begles 8.50

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 15.90 12.20 3.70
Chiefs 14.23 13.21 1.00
Hurricanes 13.53 9.73 3.80
Crusaders 12.76 18.86 -6.10
Brumbies 7.42 6.52 0.90
Reds 2.58 0.07 2.50
Highlanders -1.04 1.17 -2.20
Waratahs -4.20 -1.90 -2.30
Rebels -6.09 -4.59 -1.50
Western Force -6.16 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.21 -9.21 1.00
Moana Pasifika -11.62 -10.80 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Jun 07 47 – 20 24.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 07 43 – 21 15.80 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Jun 08 36 – 5 28.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Jun 08 32 – 16 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Jun 14 Blues 13.50
2 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 15 Hurricanes 2.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.91 14.73 -3.80
Roosters 7.83 3.08 4.70
Storm 6.01 6.15 -0.10
Broncos 5.32 9.07 -3.70
Sharks 4.33 2.94 1.40
Sea Eagles 2.02 -0.48 2.50
Warriors 1.76 -0.07 1.80
Cowboys -2.03 2.47 -4.50
Dolphins -2.28 -7.09 4.80
Bulldogs -2.40 -13.35 11.00
Knights -2.77 1.84 -4.60
Raiders -4.40 -4.31 -0.10
Dragons -4.47 -6.93 2.50
Rabbitohs -4.74 0.87 -5.60
Eels -5.25 0.14 -5.40
Titans -8.95 -7.89 -1.10
Wests Tigers -12.89 -13.15 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jun 07 56 – 14 7.40 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 12 – 46 3.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jun 08 12 – 42 7.60 FALSE
4 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 08 12 – 22 5.90 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Knights Jun 09 36 – 28 12.30 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jun 09 32 – 22 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 10 22 – 18 6.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dolphins Jun 13 Sharks 9.60
2 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jun 14 Raiders 0.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 14 Broncos -7.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 15 Titans -0.90
5 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 15 Warriors 2.80
6 Eels vs. Roosters Jun 15 Roosters -10.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Jun 16 Sea Eagles 9.50
8 Knights vs. Panthers Jun 16 Panthers -10.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 23.49 9.23 14.30
Brisbane Lions 16.78 17.47 -0.70
Carlton Blues 12.97 9.73 3.20
Collingwood 11.94 14.87 -2.90
Fremantle Dockers 9.77 0.40 9.40
GWS Giants 9.31 12.60 -3.30
Western Bulldogs 7.99 6.04 2.00
Geelong Cats 7.86 10.50 -2.60
Melbourne Demons 5.87 13.91 -8.00
Adelaide Crows 5.37 9.56 -4.20
Port Adelaide Power 3.49 8.83 -5.30
Gold Coast Suns -0.56 -4.60 4.00
St Kilda Saints -4.92 -0.63 -4.30
Hawthorn Hawks -5.36 -11.08 5.70
Essendon Bombers -7.32 -17.70 10.40
Richmond Tigers -19.11 -6.13 -13.00
West Coast Eagles -34.49 -43.10 8.60
North Melbourne -38.92 -25.73 -13.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 06 71 – 79 39.30 FALSE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 07 71 – 114 6.30 FALSE
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 08 85 – 79 -9.00 FALSE
4 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Jun 08 65 – 74 16.90 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 08 51 – 48 5.10 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Jun 09 112 – 82 23.10 TRUE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 09 70 – 96 -18.70 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 10 89 – 51 1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 30.70
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 15 Western Bulldogs 7.20
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 15 Hawthorn Hawks -13.70
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans Jun 15 Sydney Swans -9.10
5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood Jun 16 Collingwood -41.90
6 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 16 GWS Giants 14.80

 

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