Posts written by David Scott (1518)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 6, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.72 14.73 -5.00
Roosters 8.24 3.08 5.20
Storm 6.74 6.15 0.60
Sea Eagles 4.78 -0.48 5.30
Sharks 4.24 2.94 1.30
Cowboys 1.62 2.47 -0.80
Bulldogs -0.81 -13.35 12.50
Broncos -0.91 9.07 -10.00
Dolphins -2.17 -7.09 4.90
Titans -3.28 -7.89 4.60
Warriors -3.31 -0.07 -3.20
Rabbitohs -3.44 0.87 -4.30
Dragons -4.14 -6.93 2.80
Knights -4.22 1.84 -6.10
Raiders -5.30 -4.31 -1.00
Eels -5.76 0.14 -5.90
Wests Tigers -13.98 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 22 – 48 -10.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 02 20 – 30 12.10 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 02 34 – 40 -11.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 03 46 – 18 -3.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Dragons Aug 03 16 – 18 16.10 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 20 – 6 10.20 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 04 22 – 14 18.20 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Aug 04 22 – 18 8.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 08 Storm -7.20
2 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 09 Sharks -4.50
3 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 09 Panthers -12.50
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 Sea Eagles -7.10
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 10 Cowboys 5.50
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 Bulldogs -0.30
7 Dolphins vs. Warriors Aug 11 Dolphins 8.10
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 11 Knights 12.80

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.63 10.63 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 6.09 6.09 -0.00
Canterbury 6.01 6.01 -0.00
Waikato 5.30 5.30 -0.00
Taranaki 5.21 5.21 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 3.52 3.52 -0.00
North Harbour 3.06 3.06 -0.00
Auckland 3.00 3.00 -0.00
Tasman 2.17 2.17 0.00
Otago -3.26 -3.26 -0.00
Northland -4.29 -4.29 -0.00
Counties Manukau -5.22 -5.22 -0.00
Southland -10.05 -10.05 -0.00
Manawatu -18.73 -18.73 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 09 Taranaki 13.40
2 Auckland vs. Wellington Aug 09 Wellington -4.60
3 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 10 Canterbury 13.30
4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 10 Otago -3.80
5 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 10 Waikato 4.80
6 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -0.00
7 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 11 Tasman -17.90
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Aug 14 Bay of Plenty 11.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.87 6.37 -0.50
Bulls 5.76 -0.48 6.20
Pumas 3.58 4.30 -0.70
Sharks 0.95 0.96 -0.00
Lions 0.88 -4.44 5.30
Western Province 0.49 0.59 -0.10
Griquas -7.19 -2.59 -4.60
Griffons -20.35 -14.70 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Aug 03 34 – 34 4.80 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 03 44 – 44 7.60 FALSE
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Aug 04 39 – 17 25.10 TRUE
4 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 04 28 – 36 -3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Pumas Aug 10 Lions 0.80
2 Bulls vs. Griffons Aug 11 Bulls 29.60
3 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Aug 11 Cheetahs -1.90
4 Sharks vs. Griquas Aug 11 Sharks 11.60

 

AFL Predictions for Week 23

By

Team Ratings for Week 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 21.25 17.47 3.80
Western Bulldogs 18.17 6.04 12.10
Sydney Swans 14.91 9.23 5.70
Port Adelaide Power 10.72 8.83 1.90
GWS Giants 9.52 12.60 -3.10
Carlton Blues 9.00 9.73 -0.70
Hawthorn Hawks 8.68 -11.08 19.80
Fremantle Dockers 7.75 0.40 7.40
Geelong Cats 7.25 10.50 -3.20
Adelaide Crows 3.52 9.56 -6.00
Collingwood 1.67 14.87 -13.20
Melbourne Demons 0.62 13.91 -13.30
St Kilda Saints -4.03 -0.63 -3.40
Gold Coast Suns -5.50 -4.60 -0.90
Essendon Bombers -9.30 -17.70 8.40
Richmond Tigers -26.37 -6.13 -20.20
North Melbourne -30.34 -25.73 -4.60
West Coast Eagles -33.34 -43.10 9.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 110 – 59 22.80 TRUE
2 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 02 97 – 87 -23.20 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 03 90 – 77 2.80 TRUE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 03 90 – 85 14.90 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Aug 03 84 – 81 -10.20 FALSE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Aug 03 148 – 36 -8.10 FALSE
7 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 04 84 – 82 12.10 TRUE
8 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 04 90 – 89 -10.60 FALSE
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 04 39 – 124 -7.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Aug 09 Sydney Swans 22.20
2 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Aug 10 Brisbane Lions 20.70
3 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 10 North Melbourne 12.00
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 10 Fremantle Dockers 9.50
5 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 10 Essendon Bombers 5.20
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 10 Port Adelaide Power -1.10
7 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 11 Carlton Blues 0.30
8 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 11 St Kilda Saints -31.30
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 11 Western Bulldogs -5.70

 

August 1, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.36 14.73 -4.40
Roosters 8.56 3.08 5.50
Storm 7.84 6.15 1.70
Sea Eagles 4.78 -0.48 5.30
Sharks 3.99 2.94 1.10
Broncos 0.91 9.07 -8.20
Cowboys 0.68 2.47 -1.80
Bulldogs -0.55 -13.35 12.80
Warriors -1.99 -0.07 -1.90
Dolphins -2.50 -7.09 4.60
Rabbitohs -3.19 0.87 -4.10
Knights -4.86 1.84 -6.70
Titans -5.11 -7.89 2.80
Dragons -5.24 -6.93 1.70
Raiders -5.56 -4.31 -1.20
Eels -7.09 0.14 -7.20
Wests Tigers -13.05 -13.15 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 156 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 28 – 16 18.90 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Storm Jul 26 14 – 32 -11.00 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 27 16 – 41 8.40 FALSE
4 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jul 27 30 – 22 -1.50 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 34 – 30 7.20 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Panthers Jul 28 10 – 46 -9.40 TRUE
7 Dolphins vs. Titans Jul 28 14 – 21 7.40 FALSE
8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 32 – 12 -2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 Cowboys -10.70
2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 02 Warriors 12.10
3 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 02 Roosters -11.10
4 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 03 Broncos -3.00
5 Storm vs. Dragons Aug 03 Storm 16.10
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 Sharks 10.20
7 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 04 Panthers 18.20
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Aug 04 Bulldogs 8.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 6.45 6.37 0.10
Bulls 5.19 -0.48 5.70
Pumas 4.33 4.30 0.00
Western Province 0.86 0.59 0.30
Lions 0.34 -4.44 4.80
Sharks 0.21 0.96 -0.70
Griquas -6.65 -2.59 -4.10
Griffons -20.72 -14.70 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Cheetahs Jul 26 45 – 47 -28.20 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 27 66 – 26 9.20 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 27 22 – 35 7.20 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Western Province Jul 28 50 – 34 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Aug 03 Cheetahs 4.80
2 Pumas vs. Sharks Aug 03 Pumas 7.60
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Aug 04 Western Province 25.10
4 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 04 Lions -3.50

 

AFL Predictions for Week 22

By

Team Ratings for Week 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 21.35 9.23 12.10
Brisbane Lions 16.80 17.47 -0.70
Western Bulldogs 16.29 6.04 10.30
GWS Giants 10.63 12.60 -2.00
Carlton Blues 10.45 9.73 0.70
Fremantle Dockers 9.03 0.40 8.60
Geelong Cats 8.34 10.50 -2.20
Hawthorn Hawks 7.57 -11.08 18.60
Port Adelaide Power 4.28 8.83 -4.50
Melbourne Demons 2.50 13.91 -11.40
Adelaide Crows 2.43 9.56 -7.10
St Kilda Saints 0.41 -0.63 1.00
Collingwood 0.21 14.87 -14.70
Gold Coast Suns -3.34 -4.60 1.30
Essendon Bombers -10.57 -17.70 7.10
Richmond Tigers -25.25 -6.13 -19.10
North Melbourne -31.46 -25.73 -5.70
West Coast Eagles -35.50 -43.10 7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 171 matches played, 111 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 26 65 – 79 19.50 FALSE
2 North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats Jul 27 66 – 106 -28.20 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 27 65 – 93 -8.40 TRUE
4 St Kilda Saints vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 27 108 – 55 5.10 TRUE
5 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Jul 27 83 – 85 1.70 FALSE
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 27 110 – 75 47.20 TRUE
7 Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 28 93 – 67 25.30 TRUE
8 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 28 48 – 87 21.20 FALSE
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 28 58 – 124 12.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 Western Bulldogs 22.80
2 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 02 Gold Coast Suns -23.20
3 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 03 North Melbourne 2.80
4 Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 03 Geelong Cats 14.90
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Aug 03 Carlton Blues -10.20
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Aug 03 Sydney Swans -8.10
7 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 04 GWS Giants 12.10
8 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 04 Fremantle Dockers -10.60
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 04 Brisbane Lions -7.40

 

July 23, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 8.78 14.73 -6.00
Roosters 8.78 3.08 5.70
Storm 7.40 6.15 1.20
Sharks 4.58 2.94 1.60
Sea Eagles 4.57 -0.48 5.10
Broncos 2.88 9.07 -6.20
Cowboys 0.09 2.47 -2.40
Warriors -1.55 -0.07 -1.50
Dolphins -1.62 -7.09 5.50
Rabbitohs -1.87 0.87 -2.70
Bulldogs -2.51 -13.35 10.80
Dragons -3.66 -6.93 3.30
Knights -4.86 1.84 -6.70
Titans -5.99 -7.89 1.90
Eels -6.64 0.14 -6.80
Raiders -6.88 -4.31 -2.60
Wests Tigers -13.49 -13.15 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Jul 19 20 – 18 1.60 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 20 42 – 28 11.20 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Broncos Jul 20 14 – 30 -3.20 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters Jul 20 24 – 8 -0.40 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Dolphins Jul 21 28 – 26 15.00 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Jul 21 38 – 8 11.30 TRUE
7 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs Jul 21 20 – 18 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 26 Warriors 18.90
2 Eels vs. Storm Jul 26 Storm -11.00
3 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 27 Broncos 8.40
4 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jul 27 Sharks -1.50
5 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Jul 27 Roosters 7.20
6 Dragons vs. Panthers Jul 28 Panthers -9.40
7 Dolphins vs. Titans Jul 28 Dolphins 7.40
8 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 Rabbitohs -2.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 8.71 6.37 2.30
Bulls 4.23 -0.48 4.70
Lions 2.14 -4.44 6.60
Western Province 1.83 0.59 1.20
Pumas 1.71 4.30 -2.60
Sharks -1.59 0.96 -2.50
Griquas -4.03 -2.59 -1.40
Griffons -22.99 -14.70 -8.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Jul 19 25 – 13 8.90 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Jul 19 21 – 31 2.50 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Jul 20 25 – 13 -3.90 FALSE
4 Griffons vs. Western Province Jul 22 15 – 64 -15.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griffons vs. Cheetahs Jul 26 Cheetahs -28.20
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Jul 27 Pumas 9.20
3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 27 Lions 7.20
4 Bulls vs. Western Province Jul 28 Bulls 5.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 21

By

Team Ratings for Week 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 24.93 9.23 15.70
Brisbane Lions 15.42 17.47 -2.10
Western Bulldogs 12.71 6.04 6.70
Carlton Blues 12.63 9.73 2.90
Fremantle Dockers 10.37 0.40 10.00
GWS Giants 10.23 12.60 -2.40
Geelong Cats 7.05 10.50 -3.40
Adelaide Crows 6.93 9.56 -2.60
Hawthorn Hawks 3.07 -11.08 14.10
Melbourne Demons 2.90 13.91 -11.00
Port Adelaide Power 2.10 8.83 -6.70
Collingwood 0.13 14.87 -14.70
Gold Coast Suns -1.96 -4.60 2.60
St Kilda Saints -2.54 -0.63 -1.90
Essendon Bombers -7.63 -17.70 10.10
Richmond Tigers -25.17 -6.13 -19.00
North Melbourne -30.16 -25.73 -4.40
West Coast Eagles -36.84 -43.10 6.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 162 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 19 113 – 115 -6.60 TRUE
2 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 20 89 – 50 18.30 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 20 113 – 41 39.00 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Jul 20 133 – 67 -5.30 FALSE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 20 48 – 95 10.20 FALSE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 20 116 – 75 34.90 TRUE
7 Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans Jul 21 79 – 77 -1.20 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 21 116 – 66 11.60 TRUE
9 Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne Jul 21 107 – 88 46.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 26 Carlton Blues 19.50
2 North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats Jul 27 Geelong Cats -28.20
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 27 Brisbane Lions -8.40
4 St Kilda Saints vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 27 St Kilda Saints 5.10
5 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Jul 27 Melbourne Demons 1.70
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 27 Fremantle Dockers 47.20
7 Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 28 Collingwood 25.30
8 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 28 Sydney Swans 21.20
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 28 Adelaide Crows 12.90

 

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