AFL Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | 19.38 | 22.65 | -3.30 |
Hawthorn Hawks | 18.64 | 21.95 | -3.30 |
Collingwood | 15.48 | 5.39 | 10.10 |
Geelong Cats | 14.44 | 15.04 | -0.60 |
GWS Giants | 12.62 | 9.08 | 3.50 |
Sydney Swans | 11.35 | 12.60 | -1.30 |
Western Bulldogs | 10.39 | 18.20 | -7.80 |
Adelaide Crows | 10.20 | 2.69 | 7.50 |
Fremantle Dockers | 5.80 | 5.99 | -0.20 |
St Kilda Saints | 3.48 | 0.89 | 2.60 |
Port Adelaide Power | 3.19 | 7.63 | -4.40 |
Carlton Blues | 0.97 | 5.01 | -4.00 |
Gold Coast Suns | 0.24 | -6.41 | 6.70 |
Essendon Bombers | -8.44 | -10.15 | 1.70 |
Melbourne Demons | -8.49 | -0.21 | -8.30 |
North Melbourne | -31.73 | -37.08 | 5.40 |
Richmond Tigers | -33.70 | -31.00 | -2.70 |
West Coast Eagles | -36.21 | -34.67 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 44 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 10 | 100 – 119 | 11.10 | FALSE |
2 | Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 11 | 109 – 78 | -0.40 | FALSE |
3 | North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 12 | 89 – 141 | -28.40 | TRUE |
4 | Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 12 | 121 – 50 | 31.80 | TRUE |
5 | Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 12 | 97 – 118 | -6.70 | TRUE |
6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 12 | 57 – 96 | 6.10 | FALSE |
7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 13 | 47 – 108 | -35.80 | TRUE |
8 | St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants | Apr 13 | 82 – 110 | -5.80 | TRUE |
9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 13 | 121 – 91 | -10.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Apr 17 | Brisbane Lions | 14.90 |
2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 18 | Carlton Blues | -32.70 |
3 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 18 | Essendon Bombers | -16.80 |
4 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 19 | Fremantle Dockers | -3.30 |
5 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Apr 19 | Adelaide Crows | 8.60 |
6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 19 | Gold Coast Suns | -22.90 |
7 | Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 20 | Sydney Swans | 19.20 |
8 | Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 20 | Western Bulldogs | 6.90 |
9 | Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 21 | Hawthorn Hawks | -15.20 |
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