United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 13.93 | 12.09 | 1.80 |
| Bulls | 9.42 | 8.83 | 0.60 |
| Glasgow | 8.91 | 9.39 | -0.50 |
| Munster | 4.78 | 9.28 | -4.50 |
| Stormers | 4.04 | 6.75 | -2.70 |
| Sharks | 1.94 | -2.94 | 4.90 |
| Edinburgh | 1.30 | 0.09 | 1.20 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Lions | -0.12 | 6.73 | -6.80 |
| Connacht | -0.68 | -0.76 | 0.10 |
| Ulster | -1.45 | 2.52 | -4.00 |
| Benetton | -2.48 | 1.02 | -3.50 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -2.69 | -2.55 | -0.10 |
| Ospreys | -3.24 | -2.51 | -0.70 |
| Scarlets | -3.45 | -10.65 | 7.20 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -9.11 | -16.17 | 7.10 |
| Dragons | -15.39 | -15.41 | 0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Sharks | Apr 19 | 17 – 18 | 6.50 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lions vs. Benetton | Apr 19 | 31 – 42 | 10.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 20 | 19 – 36 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stormers vs. Connacht | Apr 20 | 34 – 29 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Munster vs. Bulls | Apr 20 | 13 – 16 | 1.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Scarlets | Apr 20 | 23 – 31 | -9.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Leinster vs. Ulster | Apr 20 | 41 – 17 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Glasgow | Apr 20 | 6 – 14 | -13.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster | Apr 26 | Munster | -2.00 |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Bulls | Apr 26 | Glasgow | 5.00 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Connacht | Apr 27 | Lions | 6.10 |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Apr 27 | Ospreys | 14.70 |
| 5 | Scarlets vs. Leinster | Apr 27 | Leinster | -11.90 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Benetton | Apr 27 | Stormers | 12.00 |
| 7 | Ulster vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | Ulster | 2.10 |
| 8 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Apr 27 | Edinburgh | -4.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »