AFL Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn Hawks | 25.49 | 21.95 | 3.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.05 | 22.65 | -3.60 |
| Geelong Cats | 17.47 | 15.04 | 2.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 14.32 | 18.20 | -3.90 |
| Collingwood | 12.95 | 5.39 | 7.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 9.78 | 2.69 | 7.10 |
| GWS Giants | 8.43 | 9.08 | -0.70 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.31 | 12.60 | -4.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 4.81 | 7.63 | -2.80 |
| Carlton Blues | 2.24 | 5.01 | -2.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 1.13 | 5.99 | -4.90 |
| St Kilda Saints | -1.11 | 0.89 | -2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.98 | -6.41 | 4.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | -6.56 | -0.21 | -6.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -12.50 | -10.15 | -2.40 |
| North Melbourne | -28.74 | -37.08 | 8.30 |
| Richmond Tigers | -29.93 | -31.00 | 1.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.55 | -34.67 | -0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 20 | 60 – 80 | -24.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood | Mar 21 | 70 – 76 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 22 | 100 – 161 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 22 | 140 – 68 | 41.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 22 | 98 – 91 | -10.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 23 | 94 – 75 | 72.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 23 | 125 – 66 | -33.40 | FALSE |
| 8 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 23 | 65 – 68 | 6.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 27 | Port Adelaide Power | -6.30 |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 28 | Western Bulldogs | -12.10 |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 29 | Brisbane Lions | 5.60 |
| 4 | Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 29 | Melbourne Demons | 6.40 |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 29 | St Kilda Saints | 28.80 |
| 6 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants | Mar 29 | Hawthorn Hawks | 28.10 |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne | Mar 30 | Adelaide Crows | 49.50 |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 30 | Fremantle Dockers | -36.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »