United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games
Team Ratings for Delayed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 13.75 | 12.09 | 1.70 |
| Glasgow | 8.10 | 9.39 | -1.30 |
| Bulls | 7.44 | 8.83 | -1.40 |
| Lions | 4.79 | 6.73 | -1.90 |
| Munster | 4.39 | 9.28 | -4.90 |
| Stormers | 4.23 | 6.75 | -2.50 |
| Edinburgh | 1.54 | 0.09 | 1.50 |
| Sharks | 1.35 | -2.94 | 4.30 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Ospreys | -0.01 | -2.51 | 2.50 |
| Ulster | -0.55 | 2.52 | -3.10 |
| Connacht | -1.62 | -0.76 | -0.90 |
| Scarlets | -3.42 | -10.65 | 7.20 |
| Benetton | -3.62 | 1.02 | -4.60 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.70 | -2.55 | -3.10 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -9.65 | -16.17 | 6.50 |
| Dragons | -15.29 | -15.41 | 0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 95 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munster vs. Edinburgh | Mar 01 | 28 – 34 | 10.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Zebre vs. Dragons | Mar 01 | 31 – 21 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Mar 02 | 38 – 14 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Mar 02 | 16 – 19 | 7.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby | Mar 02 | 42 – 24 | 26.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Ulster vs. Scarlets | Mar 02 | 30 – 28 | 10.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Benetton | Mar 02 | 38 – 30 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Glasgow vs. Ospreys | Mar 02 | 31 – 32 | 16.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Delayed Games
Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Lions | Mar 09 | Lions | -0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »