Top 14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.05 | 8.76 | 2.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.76 | 3.96 | 1.80 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.93 | 4.85 | 0.10 |
| Toulon | 4.58 | 5.32 | -0.70 |
| Racing 92 | 2.00 | 2.75 | -0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.25 | -0.09 | 1.30 |
| Bayonne | 0.30 | -1.69 | 2.00 |
| Montpellier | 0.28 | -0.96 | 1.20 |
| Clermont | 0.18 | 0.41 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | -0.33 | 1.86 | -2.20 |
| Section Paloise | -0.71 | 1.38 | -2.10 |
| Lyon | -1.10 | -0.18 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -2.95 | -0.66 | -2.30 |
| Vannes | -9.50 | -10.00 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 24 | 28 – 24 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Nov 24 | 22 – 30 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Nov 24 | 30 – 3 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 | Nov 24 | 40 – 24 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 25 | 41 – 9 | 19.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Bayonne | Nov 24 | 39 – 19 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 24 | 29 – 37 | -8.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Dec 01 | Bordeaux Begles | 13.00 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 01 | Clermont | 5.00 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 01 | Stade Toulousain | -1.30 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Lyon | Dec 01 | Section Paloise | 7.40 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Vannes | Dec 01 | Stade Rochelais | 20.30 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Dec 01 | USA Perpignan | 0.20 |
| 7 | Bayonne vs. Stade Francais | Dec 02 | Bayonne | 7.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »