August 6, 2024

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.72 14.73 -5.00
Roosters 8.24 3.08 5.20
Storm 6.74 6.15 0.60
Sea Eagles 4.78 -0.48 5.30
Sharks 4.24 2.94 1.30
Cowboys 1.62 2.47 -0.80
Bulldogs -0.81 -13.35 12.50
Broncos -0.91 9.07 -10.00
Dolphins -2.17 -7.09 4.90
Titans -3.28 -7.89 4.60
Warriors -3.31 -0.07 -3.20
Rabbitohs -3.44 0.87 -4.30
Dragons -4.14 -6.93 2.80
Knights -4.22 1.84 -6.10
Raiders -5.30 -4.31 -1.00
Eels -5.76 0.14 -5.90
Wests Tigers -13.98 -13.15 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 98 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 01 22 – 48 -10.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 02 20 – 30 12.10 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 02 34 – 40 -11.10 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 03 46 – 18 -3.00 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Dragons Aug 03 16 – 18 16.10 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 03 20 – 6 10.20 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Knights Aug 04 22 – 14 18.20 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Aug 04 22 – 18 8.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Aug 08 Storm -7.20
2 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 09 Sharks -4.50
3 Eels vs. Panthers Aug 09 Panthers -12.50
4 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 10 Sea Eagles -7.10
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 10 Cowboys 5.50
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 Bulldogs -0.30
7 Dolphins vs. Warriors Aug 11 Dolphins 8.10
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Aug 11 Knights 12.80

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »